Climate Change Challenges: Road to Paris (2015) and Beyond

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1 Climate Change Challenges: Road to Paris (2015) and Beyond Ainun Nishat Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Research, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

2 Is there any doubt that Climate Change real? Climate change and climate variability are now real. A stable situation is not likely to be achieved soon. The IPCC-FAR(2007) concluded, and IPCC-V (2014) reconfirmed that global warming is unequivocally the result of human activities. Scientific consensus is clear; possible adverse impacts have been established. Now, the whole world collectively needs to urgently focus on what to do about it. Climate change has risen to the top of international policy agenda. COP 21 in Paris is expected to deliver a legally binding agreement/protocol that will address all aspects of Climate Change. Intense negotiations are going on among the Parties towards finalization of this document.

3 Some Definitions Climate Change: any change in climate over time. Climate Variability: variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales. Adaptation is a process to cope with the changing environment.. Mitigation is interventions to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.

4 The Past is NOT the Future

5 Bangladesh to face Climate Climate Change induced hazards Recognized globally as one of the most vulnerable (possibly the most vulnerable country) to adverse impacts of Climate Change Experiencing the increased frequencies and intensities of natural disasters. Erratic rainfall; changes in seasons Short duration heavy rainfall causing land slides and drainage congestion in urban areas Flood with higher intensity Cyclones and Tidal surges, and Tornadoes Salinity intrusion Drought-like phenomenon River bank erosion

6 Parameters: drought, flood and cyclone

7 Bangladesh CC Stratrgy and Action Plan 2009 Six pillars (Themes) Food security, social protection & health security Comprehensive disaster management Infrastructure development Research and knowledge management Mitigation and low carbon development Capacity building institutional and human

8 On Adaptation, we expect from global community Legally binding CCdeal to keep temperature below 2.0 C (preferably 1.5 C) above pre-industrial level. Level of Mitigation achieved will determine the level of Adaptation that will be required, in future. Support Adaptation towards food security, livelihood security, health security and water security and management of displaced people/ (migration). Finance will be made available to respond to CC impacts.

9 Expectation from Paris COP. Let me raise 7 points a. Support NAP implementation b. Support co-benefits from Adaptation and Mitigation c. Address Loss and Damage d. Support management of Climate change induced migration process e. Build capacity to design and implement projects f. Develop plans for management of SLR and increase in salinity g. Support in management of trans-boundary water resources on a regional approach

10 1. Support implementation of NAP Like all LDCs Bangladesh is preparing their NAP; Road map has been developed, Priority areas have been selected Protection of coastal belt from storm surge Management of changes in climatic seasons, Management erratic rainfall causing floods and drought-like conditions Paris may decide on reservation of some fund from GCF for implementation of the NAPs.

11 1. Support NAP implementation. Experience of NAPA implementation has been very poor. Trust building among developing-countries and developed-countries on support that will be forthcoming for implementation of Adaptation projects is essential. Developing countries expect that 50% of GCF will be allocated for Adaptation. For implementation of NAPA, there has been no central monitoring. For implementation of NAP, strong monitoring mechanism, through Adaptation Committee may be set up.

12 2. Support co-benefits from Adaptation and Mitigation Global attention is on Mitigation and reduction of GHGs. There could be many projects that would contribute to both Adaptation and Mitigation, e.g. Coastal afforestation would reduce height of storm surges and also sequester carbon; Urban waste management projects could reduce GHG production and also support agriculture through supply of organic fertilizers;

13 3. Address Loss and Damage Broadly defined Loss and Damage is situations beyond Adaptation, and impact of slow onset events ( like SLR, ocean acidification) Recommendations of the Warsaw International Mechanism on L&D will be available in How L&D will be addressed in 2015, Paris document remains as a big concern.

14 4. Support management of Climate change induced migration process Decision 14(f) taken in Cop 16, in Cancun (2010) recognized that issues related to climate change induced displaced people and migrants need to be addressed. Paris may work out a well defined mechanism to address issues emerging on this subject.

15 5. Build capacity to design and implement projects Capacity building, and transfer of technology are discussed in the COPs and are well documented in various decisions. These two areas need to be translated into actionable program specially in the LDCs. Lack of capacity is not only in human resources, but also with instrumentation, monitoring and evaluation, planning and projection of future events (i.e. technological) as well as in fudiciary process.

16 6. Support management of SLR and increase in salinity Response to floods, droughts, urban drainage problems, storm surge and cyclones are known to professionals but response to sea level rise and snow and glacier melting is to evolve. Migration of people from coastal belt in countries with low lying deltaic plains, due to increase in salinity, is already evident in countries like Bangladesh

17 7. Management of trans-boundary water resources on a regional approach Water is a finite resource; on the other hand demand is increasing due increase in demand in agriculture and industrial sectors, The importance regional approach in management trans-boundary water resources is recognized in COP decisions. Paris COP may work further on this issue towards urgent resolution of emerging concerns.

18 Finally. We must prepare for Adaptation to Climate Variability (the already occurring extreme events) and keep in mind the trends indicated in Climate Change forecasts. This is very important for all countries specially for the LDCs, SIDS and countries in Africa suffering from floods and drought, as well as for all Developing Countries. Science is clear; we need political will to achieve success both in Adaptation and Mitigation.

19 Thank you for your patience