Energy Services to Meet the Millennium Development Goals: Cost Estimates for Senegal

Transcription

1 Energy Services to Meet the Millennium Development Goals: Cost Estimates for Senegal International Energy Management & Policy Program School of International and Public Affairs Columbia University

2 Contents Introduction Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Importance of Energy in Meeting the MDGs Objectives Methodology and Results Conclusion

3 Millennium Development Goals The UN Millennium Declaration (2000) set the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) From Top-Down to Needs-Assessment approach

4 Importance of Energy in Meeting the MDGs MDG 7 Reduced pressure on forests and environment MDG 6 MDG 6 Lighting and refrigeration for health clinics MDG 8 Greater participation in development and trade MDG 1 Increased productivity and income Increasing Access to Energy Services Leads to... MDG 2 Lighting for schools & increased attendance MDG 4/5 Improved child and maternal health MDG 3 Empowering women and gender equality

5 Objectives Estimate investment needed to deliver energy services necessary to achieve the MDGs Focus on needs-assessment across three service lines Modern cooking systems Electricity Mechanical power for agro- and water processing Apply methodology in a country-specific setting Senegal examined as a case study

6 Contents Introduction Methodology and Results Current Situation and Goals in Senegal Overall Methodology General Results Conclusion

7 Senegal- Population and Electricity Grid

8 Current Situation and Goals in Senegal Current Access to Energy Services in 2005 and Goals for % Modern Cooking Systems Household Access Urban HH Access Electricity Rural Comm. Access Rural HH Access Mechanical Power Community Access 100% 100% 100% 80% 60% 53% 68% 60% 40% 36% 36% 26% 20% 14% 0% 2005 Current 2015 Goal

9 Workshop Methodology Target population X Unit costs = Total outlays # of households covered Coverage goal Target population Population already covered Current coverage Target population = Total pop. covered Pop. already covered Unit cost breakdown: Service Cooking fuel, electricity, mech. power Technology LPG, charcoal, sustainable biomass - Grid, mini grid, PV Delivery point Community, institution, household Cost category Capital, O&M, fuel/electricity purchase, capacity building Outlays computed as a function of: Year Service Technology Cost category Rural / Urban

10 Costs Analyzed Capital equipment Including replacement where necessary Fuel / electricity purchase All fuel costs Grid electricity costs ($0.09/kWh, includes generation and HV transportation costs) Operation and maintenance costs Includes billing costs Capacity costs Promotional programs for Diambar stoves Technical training on the use of machinery

11 Technology Selection Cooking Systems Achieved by implementing LPG cook systems and improved biomass cookstoves in equal proportions LPG focused in urban areas and Diambars in rural areas Electricity Mechanical Power Three technologies Grid, diesel mini-grid and photovoltaic systems Where cost effective, national grid was extended; in other areas standalone systems are implemented. All communities provided with mechanized agro-processing 100L of water per person for potable, animal and garden use Assumes communities on the grid have mechanical power access Diesel Engine/Multi-Functional Platform: each module serves people Water processing includes only above ground technology

12 Energy Services Outlays for Senegal (I) Total Outlay = $1.7 billion over 10 years Total Outlay by Energy Service Annual Outlays ($US MM per Year) Capacity Building Maintenance and Operation % of Total Cost 2% 12% Cooking Systems 44% Electricity 35% Fuel / Electricity Purchase Capital 46% Mechanical Power 21% %

13 Energy Services Outlays for Senegal (II) $12 Annual per capita costs per year in Senegal Cooking Systems Electricity Mechanical Power TOTAL 16 $US per capita / year $5.40 $4.30 $2.52 $ Per capita costs are calculated on the basis of total estimated population in 2015

14 Assumptions and Limitations Assumptions Assumes supporting infrastructure required to deliver technologies was available Assumes stable fuel prices over time Population projections based on available census data Analysis does not consider Funding sources for the proposed plan Costs and benefits of associated externalities Institutional costs to develop national training programs

15 Contents Introduction Results and Methodology Conclusion

16 Conclusion Increasing energy access in Senegal to meet the MDGs will cost $1.7 billion over ten years At only $12 per capita per year, increasing energy access is highly feasible Increased access to energy will substantially improve people s lives

17 Contents Appendix

18 Cooking Systems (I) Current Situation / Goals Dakar Other Urban Rural 100% 90% 80% 60% 60% 75% 65% Coverage 40% 20% 0% LPG 10% Improved Cookstoves LPG 10% 25% Improved Cookstoves 30% LPG 0% 35% Improved Cookstoves Current Goal Technology Choices and Limitations Increase consumption of modern fuels to 76% of energy needs The increase in access will be achieved by implementing LPG cook systems and improved biomass cookstoves in equal proportions

19 Cooking Systems (II) Access Technology and Outlay Breakdown Total Outlay = $730 million over 10 years Total Outlay by Technology Annual Outlay by Category ($US MM per Year) Capacity Building % of Total Cost 0.1% 1.9% Improved Biomass Cookstoves 45% LPG 55% Capital 98.0% 40 Fuel Capital

20 Electricity (I) Current Situation / Goals Dakar Other Urban Rural 100% 100% 100% Coverage 80% 60% 40% 20% 71% 65% 14% 36% 24% 60% Current Goal 0% Household Electrification Household Electrification Household Electrification Community Access (1) Technology Choices and Limitations Three technologies were chosen Grid, diesel mini-grid and photovoltaic systems Increases in access will be accomplished by extending the national grid in areas where it is the most cost-effective solution, and implementing stand-alone systems elsewhere Note: (1) Community access is the percentage of households living in communities with electrified basic social services. With a 60% community access rate in Senegal, 100% of the rural population will live within 5km of an electrified community.

21 Electricity (II) Access Technology and Outlay Breakdown Total Outlay = $588 million over 10 years Rural Community Access by Technology PV 10% Mini-Grid 5% Annual Outlay by Category ($US MM per Year) Fuel / Electricity Purchase % of Total Cost 4% Grid 80% 80 Operating & Maintenance 25% 60 Total Outlay by Technology PV 5% Grid, Rural 52% Grid, Urban 41% Mini-Grid 2% 40 71% 20 Capital Note: An outlay of $588 million for an increase of the electrified population of 4.5 million people implies a cost of $130 to electrify one person. IEA estimate for Africa is $400 per capita, where large-scale transportation, generation and capacity costs (not included in this workshop) represent roughly $200.

22 Mechanical Power (I) Current Situation / Goals Dakar and Other Urban Rural 100% 100% 100% 100% Coverage 80% 60% Current Goal 40% 20% 24% 0% Minimum Needs, Technology Choices and Limitations All communities provided with mechanized agro-processing 100L of water per person for potable, animal and garden use Assumes all communities with grid access have mechanical power access Diesel Engine/Multi-Functional Platform: each module serves people Water processing includes only above ground technology

23 Mechanical Power (II) Access Technology and Outlay Breakdown Total Outlay = $345 million over 10 years Total Outlay by Technology Mini-Grid 12% Electricity 10% Annual Outlay by Category ($US MM per Year) Capacity Building Fuel / Elec. Purchase % of Total Cost 8% 8% 14% Standalone Mechanical Power 78% Operating & Maintenance Capital 70% 10 Capital

24 How much will it Cost? Increasing energy access in Senegal to meet the MDGs will cost $1.7 billion over ten years Access levels From 58% to 100% access to Cooking Systems From 68% to 100% individual household access to electricity in urban areas From 26% to 60% (1) community access to electricity in rural areas From 14% to 36% household access to electricity in rural areas From 36% to 100% access to mechanical power for agro and water processing The methodology is a general tool that can be used by other countries

25 Is it Feasible? At only $12 per capita per year, increasing energy access is highly feasible $12 / $40 = 30% of IEA estimated investment in energy services $12 / $100 = 12% of annual anticipated ODA for Africa If aid commitments at the Gleneagles summit are included $12 / $700 = 1.7% of Senegal s annual GDP

26 What is the Impact? Increased access to energy will substantially improve people s lives Cooking Systems Decreases time spent gathering wood for women and girl children Lowers child mortality and improves maternal health Promotes environmental sustainability Electricity Powers refrigeration for essential vaccines and medicines to clinics, allows improved sterilization Supplies lighting for schools, emergency rooms and households Allows water supply and purification, and sanitation Mechanical Power Saves women considerable time and effort Provides income generating opportunities such as agro and water pumping