Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems. Skopje, 12 May 2010

Transcription

1 Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems Skopje, 12 May 2010

2 Outline Climate Change and Republic of Macedonia-general Climate change adaptation in RM Climate Change adaptation and the EU

3 1998, Party to the UNFCCC Non-Annex I Party 2004, Kyoto Protocol ratified Non-Annex B Party 2005, Party to the Kyoto Protocol 7,16 t CO 2 -eq/capita (2000) Positioned in one of the most vulnerable region Candidate country for full membership into the EU 3

4 GHG inventory 14,318 kt CO2-eq, i.e t CO2-eq per capita in 2000 LUCF Waste 6% N 2 O 7% CO 2% HFC 0% 14% CH 4 Agriculture 12% 10% Industry 6% Energy 64% CO 2 a) b) 79% Sectoral contribution (a) and GHGs contribution (b) to overall emissions for the year

5 kt CO2-eq Total GHG emissions Baseline scenario Second mitigation scenario Year Baseline Scenario / Second Mitigation Scenario 1990/2020=21500/15000 ktco2eq (55%/9%) 2020-value (kt CO2-eq): 21500/15000 Average annual growth rate (%): 3.6/1.4 Grid factor (kt CO2-eq/kWh): 1.2 in 1990, increases slightly/ decreases for 22%, to 0.9 5

6 CDM potential High ratio of GHG emissions to economic output (GHG or carbon intensity) signals about high cost-effectiveness of potential CDM projects as it implies that large volume of GHG emission reductions can be achieved per 1 US$ of investments. Preliminary analyses of the carbon potential in the Republic of Macedonia estimate the aggregate potential in terms of CO 2 eq up to 6 MtCO 2 eq per year. Considering that the market price of emission reduction ranges between 6 and 9 EUR/ton of CO 2 eq the resulting potential carbon investment can be expected to range between 35 and 55 million EUR per year

7 General The Macedonian MoEPP is the UNFCCC Focal Point for the Republic of Macedonia, and the Designated National Authority (DNA) for the implementation of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under Kyoto Protocol Procedures for approval on CDM projectexist, institutional set up-exist

8 Republic of Macedonia and UNFCCC GOAL: to obtain stabilization of GHG concentration in the atmosphere on levels which would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) impact on the climate system PRINCIPLES: Equality and shared, but differentiated responsibilities Acknowledging requirements and circumstances of developing countries Precautionary principle Promotion of sustainable development 8

9 Republic of Macedonia and UNFCCC Preparation of national communications Obligatory chapters: GHG inventory Climate scenarios Measures for mitigations and adaptation to climate changes Environment friendly transfer of technologies Research, education, capacity building and public awareness strengthening 9

10 Activity level Bi- and multilateral cooperation Strategic and legal framework Institutional framework Technical aspects 10

11 Strategic framework National sustainable development strategy-energy sector and climate changes identified as main contributors towards national sustainable development Second NEAP climate change problems and solutions identified National strategy for CDM, , adopted in 2007 National strategy for adoption of Environmental Aquies National Environmental investment strategy - carbon financing recognized as potential for attraction of foreign investments National climate change indicators Progress monitoring project Draft National Strategy for adaptation of Health Sector 11

12 Adaptation strategy and the Republic of Macedonia Climate scenarios, vulnerability assessment and adaptation

13 Climate scenarios Carefully interpretation of the results!!!! According to the results, the average increase of temperature is between 1.0 C in 2025, 1.9 C in 2050, 2.9 C in 2075, and 3.8 C in The average decrease of precipitation ranges from -3% in 2025, -5% in 2050, -8% in 2075 to -13% in 2100, in comparison with the reference period

14 Climate scenarios The largest increase of air temperature up to year 2100 is expected in the summer season, associated with a strong decrease in precipitation. Almost no change in precipitation is expected for the winter season in general, but a decrease is expected in all other seasons More vulnerable southeast and central part

15 Vulnerability assessment Sector Agriculture sub sector Crop production In Stip region, where most important crop is winter wheat, yield decrease could reach up to 17% in In Bitola region, yield decreasde of alfalfa could reach 62% in 2050, Yield decrease of apples in Resen and grape in Kavadarci region could reach up to 50% in Most dramatic are projections for yield decrease of tomato in Gevgelija region (81% in 2050). Results are obtained under the assumption that crops would be planted without irrigation.

16 Vulnerability assessment Sector Agriculture sub sector Crop production The total direct economical damage for yield decrease of winter heat, alfalfa and grapes would be almost 30 million in 2025 and it would increase up to 40 million in Most vulnerable agriculture region is Central Povardarie (Kavadarci, Negotino, Gradsko, especially catchment areas of Crna Reka and Bregalnica).

17 Vulnerability assessment Sector Forestry Decline of health condition for oak and fir, intensified forest dieback Increased population of pests (especially insects and fungi), due to the decline of health condition. Migration of certain tree species at the highest altitudes and change of forest tree Increase of number of forest fires and burned area due to expected rise of air temperature

18 Vulnerability assessment Biodiversity Sector Alpine zone is most vulnerable to climate changes. Loss of the alpine belt can be expected; for example Mt. Pelister is expected to have lost its alpine belt within 50 years. Molika-pine forest belt will move upwards Dojran lake ecosystem and surrounding swamps can experience most negative effects form climate changes, especially in already disturbed water regime. Vertical movement of vegetation belts, problems in food chains of some vertebrates and their life cycle change

19 Vulnerability assessment Human health Sector Increased risk from food or vector-translated diseases, increased frequency and duration of heat stress, increased mortality from cardiovascular diseases For some of the winter months decrease of total mortality (expressed as a monthly average) is expected in the country For the summer months increase of the monthly mortality rate in the country of 10% average is expected, compared to the period

20 Vulnerability assessment Tourism Sector Mountain and lakeside tourism, although most attractive in the country, are considered particulary vulnerable to climate changes The water consumption needs of tourists is expected to rise, especially in the Crn Drim catchment area Inevitably, energy consumption will increase, also as the need for cooling of indoor premises becomes essential with the temperature increase

21 Vulnerability assessment Tourism Sector Larger water consumption would require provision of a new potable water supply resources, and construction of new sewage systems for both households and industry, especially for the tourist destinations. The mountain tourism, whose main attraction was skiing, would suffer due to shortening of the skiing season, unless artificial snow-making takes place

22 Vulnerability assessment Water Resources Sector It is estimated that the climate change will have detrimental effect to water quality, regarding the following aspects: a) Reduced water quantities decrease the capacity to dilute pollutants, leading to worsening of the water quality; b) Higher temperatures reduce the dissolved oxygen in water bodies; and c) In conditions of climate change, the use of water, especially in agriculture, may reduce the water quality by discharge of pollutants into water.

23 Vulnerability assessment Water Resources Sector The percentage of decrease of mean annual discharges in the period is 36 58% as compared to the average in the period The quantity of water outflow from the country varies significantly in the last 40 years, with a downward trend, decreasing steadily by 70 millions m 3 annually.

24 Estimates of future climate change impact to Vardar, Treska and Bregalnica rivers Application of MIKE SHE software model indicates decreasing trend of annual average discharges of approximately 4% for Treska and approximately 11-16% for Vardar and Bregalnica rivers by Available water resources in year 2100 in the catchment of Bregalnica river will decrease for 24%, as compared to 7% decrease estimated for Treska river basin. It is expected that periods of dry spells will occur more often and with higher intensity; on the other hand, flash floods with increased intensity are expected. Overall water availability in the country (Vardar River catchment) will be decreased for around 18% in year 2100.

25 Intersectoral Adaptation Action Plan

26 EU position Adaptation

27 What is adaptation? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) defines adaptation as "any adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities".

28 Adaptation involves taking action so that we can be more resilient to our current climate, less susceptible to the impacts of future climate change and in a position to take advantage of opportunities

29 What is the aim of the White Paper? The White Paper presented by the European Commission proposes an EU framework on adaptation to strengthen the EU's resilience to cope with the impacts of a changing climate. It builds on the wide-ranging consultation launched in 2007 by the Green Paper on Adapting to Climate Change in Europe. The framework will evolve as further evidence becomes available. It will complement actions by Member States and support wider international efforts to adapt to climate change.

30 What are the key elements in the framework? Building a stronger knowledge base Taking climate change impacts into consideration in key EU policies Financing combining different policy measures to the best effect Supporting wider international efforts on adaptation

31 Building a stronger knowledge base Information availability differs considerably across regions, European-wide monitoring programmes and spatially detailed information including climate change impact scenarios are lacking. A better understanding of the socio-economic aspects, the costs and benefits of different adaptation options and information on good practices are also required.

32 Taking climate change impacts into consideration in key EU policies there are a number of sectors with strong EU policy involvement where climate risk and adaptation measures will need to be considered. The mainstreaming of adaptation into sectoral policies at European level is important in order to reduce, in the long-term the vulnerability of sectors such as: agriculture, forests, bio-diversity, fisheries, energy, transport, water and health. Mainstreaming adaptation means using or creating mechanisms that allow decision makers to integrate further climate risks into all relevant policy interventions.

33 What will be the role of the Clearing House Mechanism? The White Paper proposes establishing a Clearing House Mechanism on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. This would serve as a web based platform for the exchange of information and would also make information widely available to potential users across Europe. It is intended that this IT tool and data base once operational will improve access to information/data and thus support national, regional and local assessments of the impacts of climate change

34 Copenhagen Communication The Copenhagen Communication proposes that all countries developed and developing alike, should be required to draft comprehensive national adaptation strategies to ensure that costly and recurring climate impacts can be prevented as far as possible. Better tools and know-how to design and implement adaptation strategies need to be developed. National institutions and international cooperation should be strengthened to disseminate knowledge and technologies for adaptation and climate resilient development.

35 What are the next steps? Adaptation will be a long and continuous process. It will operate at all levels and require close coordination with stakeholders. The EU will support international and national adaptation efforts ensuring that there are adequate resources for efficient and cost-effective adaptation action so as to provide a sustainable and sound economic basis for future generations. The Commission will review progress regularly in implementing the actions identified in this White Paper with a view to developing further adaptation measures

36 Why are some regions and sectors more vulnerable to climate change than others? Climate change will affect all natural and man-made systems to some extent. However, the impacts on individual sectors or regions will vary depending on the sensitivity of the system and its adaptive capacity. Sensitivity of a system is the extent to which changes in climate will affect the system in its current form, while the adaptive capacity of the system is its capacity to change in a way that makes it better equipped to deal with external influences. Both the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of a system will contribute to how vulnerable the system is to changes in climate. Vulnerability is the degree of susceptibility to, or inability to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes

37 What is an Adaptation Strategy? An Adaptation Strategy aims to increase society s resilience. It is a framework for managing future climate risk and offers the potential of reducing future economic, environmental and social costs. For an Adaptation Strategy to be effective, it must result in climate risk being considered as a normal part of decision-making. In this context, adaptation strategies will fail if they continue in the long run to be seen separate from other aspects of strategic planning and risk management. To reach this point, more new knowledge is required on climate impacts, particularly on regional impacts as well as on the economic costs of action/inaction

38 Thank you for your attention Teodora O. Grncarovska