MANE-VU Technical Support Committee. OTC/MANE-VU Committees Meeting September 21, 2018

Transcription

1 MANE-VU Technical Support Committee OTC/MANE-VU Committees Meeting September 21, 218

2 Overview 1. Regional Haze SIPs - 2 nd Planning Period Schedule 2. Visibility Report - Monitoring Data 3. EI Trends Report 4. Consultation/MANE-VU Ask 5. Modeling 6. SIP Writing 2

3 Regional Haze SIP 2 nd Planning Period Schedule Decisions on Methods IMPROVE Data Analysis 1 st and 2 nd Planning Period Calculations, QA, and TSD 211/228 Alpha 2 & TSD Inventory Development & Analysis Emissions Trends Analysis 211 Base Case Modeling Modeling 228 Base Case Modeling 228 Control Case Modeling Document Modeling Platform and Results (Except 228 Modeling) Qc/d CALPUFF Assessment Back Trajectory & IMPROVE Data Analysis Four-Factor Analysis/Contribution Assessment 4-Factor Data Collection HEDD Analysis Winter EGU NOx Control Synthesize Assessments Updating RPGs Draft RPGs and Document Consultation SIP Submission Establish Consultation Process Intra-RPO Consultation Inter-RPO Consultation SIP Submission (Before 219) Rule Adoption 3

4 deciviews 1 st RH SIP Planning Period Metrics Visibility is Improving - Current Levels are Below 218 RPGs 2% WORST DAYS METRICS / 2% BEST DAYS METRICS 35 2% Worst Days 2% Best Days No Deg. 218 RPG 228 RPG Acadia, ME Brigantine, NJ Great Gulf, NH Moosehorn, ME Lye Brook, VT ACAD1 BRIG1 GRGU1 MOOS1 LYBR_RHTS Progress at Monitored Class I States in MANE-VU using IMPROVE RHII Algorithm 4

5 deciviews 2 nd RH SIP Planning Period Metrics Visibility is Improving - Current Levels are Near 228 RPGs 2% MOST IMPAIRED DAYS METRICS / 2% CLEAREST DAYS METRICS 2% Most Impaired Days 2% Clearest Days No Deg. 228 URP 228 RPG 35 Acadia, ME Brigantine, NJ Great Gulf, NH Moosehorn, ME Lye Brook, VT ACAD1 BRIG1 GRGU1 MOOS1 LYBR_RHTS Progress at Monitored Class I States in MANE-VU using IMPROVE RH III Algorithm 5

6 Light Extinction Percentage Winter Nitrates Contribution Increasing 1% Brigantine Wilderness 2% Most Impaired Days 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Rayleigh Sea Salt Soil Coarse Mass Elemental Carbon Organic Mass-Carbon Nitrate Sulfate % 6

7 SO 2 (Thousands Tons) Annual SO 2 Emissions from NEI, ,4 1, , CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT MANE-VU States AL FL IL IN KY LA MI MO NC OH TN TX VA WV Contributing States 7

8 NO x (Thousand Tons) Annual NO X Emissions from NEI, , 1, ,6 1,4 1,2 1, CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT AL FL IL IN KY LA MI MO NC OH TN TX VA WV MANE-VU States Contributing States 8

9 MANE-VU Ask MANE-VU States Ensure effective use of installed controls on EGUs (>=25 MW) yearround 4-factor analysis for most important sources (>3Mm -1 extinction) Complete 27 low sulfur fuel oil rule Update permits and/or rules to reflect already achieved rates for SO 2, NO X, and PM 2.5 Strive to meet particular NO X emissions standards or perform 4-factor analysis on HEDD units Increase energy efficiency and implement CHP or other DG Upwind States Ensure effective use of installed controls on EGUs (>=25 MW) yearround 4-factor analysis for most important sources (>3Mm -1 extinction) Complete 27 low sulfur fuel oil rule Update permits and/or rules to reflect already achieved rates for SO 2, NO X, and PM 2.5 Increase energy efficiency and implement CHP or other DG Signed August 25, 217 FLMs / EPA FLMs consult with MANE-VU Class I States when scheduling prescribed burns EPA develop measures that will further reduce emissions from heavy-duty onroad vehicles EPA ensure that Class I Area state Asks are addressed in contributing state SIPs prior to approval Including the Ask in photochemical modeling underway 9

10 MANE-VU Inter-RPO Consultation Introduction 1/2/17 Technical Discussion 12/1/17 MANE-VU Analysis Review 12/18/17 Upwind State Feedback 1/12/18 Between MANE-VU and contributing states, as identified using weighted contribution analysis Five Webinars between 1/2/17 and 3/23/18 Consultation Report Available at: VU_RH_ConsultationReport_Appendices_ThankYouLetters_83218.pdf Response to Upwind States Commissioners 3/23/18 1

11 CT DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV CT DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV Changes in Annual Emissions (ERTAC) On Implementing MV Ask Thousands Tons SO 2 NO X 16 Base... + LSFO... + Ask 2 7 Base Non-OS Rate... + HEDD... + Ask MANE-VU LADCO SESARM MANE-VU LADCO SESARM 11

12 CT DC* DE MA MD* ME NH* NJ NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV AR IA KS LA MO NE OK TX CT DC* DE MA MD* ME NH* NJ NY PA RI VT IL IN MI MN OH WI AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN VA WV AR IA KS LA MO NE OK TX Changes in Annual SO 2 Emissions (EMF) On Implementing MV Ask Thousands Tons Point Sources NonPoint Sources 9 8 Base + Ask2 + HEDD + LSFO 1 9 Base + LSFO MANE-VU LADCO SESARM CENSARA MANE-VU LADCO SESARM CENSARA * Note: Several States in MANE-VU have implemented some or all of the LSFO rule, but do not include it in their FY projections 12

13 SIP Writing Status States in various stages of SIP writing/4-factor analysis States with robust SIP drafts sharing them with others as templates A listing of MANE-VU haze planning documents has been provided as a resource ZpssgIBZ6KGh1s_a/MV_Haze_Planning_Docments_List_83218.xlsx?dl= 13

14 In Summary 2 nd Planning Period Regional Haze SIP work almost complete Have documented visibility and inventory trends The Ask is final for the 2 nd Planning Period Both Intra- and Inter-RPO consultations are done and documentation finished Inventory development for base case and control case modeling is completed and modeling is completed Modeling TSD is currently under 21-day review period (ends Sept. 19, 218) States in various stages of SIP writing 14