SUMMARY OF GENERATION & TRANSMISSION MODEL 3.0 UPDATES

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1 September 2013 WESTERN RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES SUMMARY OF GENERATION & TRANSMISSION MODEL 3.0 UPDATES RYAN PLETKA, KEVIN JOYCE, JAGMEET KHANGURA

2 BACKGROUND The Western Renewable Energy Zones (WREZ) Generation & Transmission Model (GTM) initial version was developed and released in

3 PURPOSE - TRANSPARENT TOOL FOR TRANSMISSION PLANNING Screening tool to assist load serving entities, regulators and renewable planners ( users ) to identify and quantify the cost of delivering renewables to load zones throughout western North America. Includes resources initially defined by the WREZ Zone Identification and Technology Assessment (ZITA) Work Group. These have been updated for 2013 by B&V. Resources accessed by a conceptual transmission network developed by the Generation & Transmission Modeling Work Group (GTMWG). No changes in current model. Model is Excel-based and flexible so users can customize to meet their needs. That said, the model includes methodologies and data that has been developed and vetted by industry experts. 3

4 MODEL OVERVIEW Designed to allow users to develop portfolios of resources and deliver the energy to load zones Users specify ZITA-defined resources or create own resources Users may specify transmission lines and routes to deliver energy to load zones or can use model defined transmission path(s) Model calculates a variety of cost information for resources and portfolios Model offers flexibility for all of these costs and assumptions 4

5 UPDATES The GTM was updated in to provide new functionality and be more representative of current resource performance and cost. 5

6 UPDATES Wind Supply Curves and Profiles Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Performance and Profiles Cost for Energy for Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Hydro and Biomass Updated Energy Price Forecast Model functionality updated (live demo) 6

7 WIND SUPPLY CURVES AND PROFILES UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST RESOURCE ASSESSMENT AND LOW WIND SPEED TURBINE DESIGNS Model updated with 80 and 100-meter hub height wind supply curves For each zone, AWS Truepower provided three sets of 12x24 profiles by International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Class along with a recommended IEC Class for each bin in each zone. The recommended IEC Class per bin was selected and loaded into the model. Some bins identified by AWS were merged with others if the bin had capacity below 50 MWs Resource below 30% CF included so that total wind capacity by zone did not decrease relative to previous assessment 7

8 SOLAR PV PERFORMANCE AND PROFILES UPDATED TO MATCH RECENT INDUSTRY TRENDS Performance of PV updated to reflect current industry plant design standards such as higher ratio of DC to AC capacity (i.e. higher inverter loading ratio) leading to higher AC capacity factors Typical solar performance (capacity factor) updated for tracking and fixed tilt configurations Crystalline technology used for both configurations 12x24 output profiles were updated to reflect the increased performance 8

9 PERFORMANCE NOT UPDATED FOR REMAINING TECHNOLOGIES Performance of following technologies was not updated as there have not been major changes in the past few years Biomass Geothermal Solar Thermal Hydro 9

10 COST OF ENERGY UPDATED FOR ALL TECHNOLOGIES KEY CAPITAL COST UPDATES ($/KW AC) Biomass, Geothermal and Hydro Original project base cost escalated by 5% Solar Thermal $5,700 (wet cooled, no storage) to $8,100 (dry-cooled, with 6-hr storage) Wind $1,850 IEC1 $2,100 IEC2 $2,275 IEC3 PV $3,070 - Fixed $3,480 - Tracking Capital costs are Q all-in costs excluding gen-tie and other transmission costs 10

11 FORECASTED CAPITAL COST DECLINES ADDED FOR RESOURCES Year Wind Fixed PV Tracking PV Solar Thermal Based on Black & Veatch forecast for NREL Renewable Electricity Futures project. Real basis. 100% means cost is constant in real terms Biomass, Geothermal & Hydro % 100% 100% 100% 100% % 96% 95% 98% 100% % 90% 91% 95% 100% % 85% 88% 90% 100% % 81% 84% 86% 100% % 77% 81% 81% 100% % 74% 78% 77% 100% % 71% 76% 73% 100% % 69% 74% 68% 100% 11

12 ENERGY PRICE FORECAST Electricity price profiles (12x24) were updated for each of the load zones in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Price profiles are from the Black & Veatch mid-year 2012 Energy Market Perspective forecast for WECC Year 2025 was used as the basis for the price profiles 12

13 PowerPoint 26 December Sample 2012 LIVE MODEL DEMO 13

14 Black & Veatch Holding Company All Rights Reserved. The Black & Veatch name and logo are registered trademarks of Black & Veatch Holding Company.