Tuesday 21 November 2017 Macmillan Room, Portcullis House. Co-hosted by:

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1 Tuesday 21 November 2017 Macmillan Room, Portcullis House Co-hosted by:

2 The Lancet Countdown 2

3 Strategic Partners 3

4 Lancet Countdown Partners 4

5 The Lancet Countdown s Working Groups Climate Change Impacts, Exposures & Vulnerabilities Public & Political Engagement The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change Adaptation Planning & Resilience for Health Finance and Economics Mitigation Actions & Health Co-Benefits 5

6 Indicators of Progress 6

7 Indicators of Progress 7

8 Key Conclusion: Impact The human symptoms of climate change are unequivocal and potentially irreversible affecting the health of populations around the world, today. Whilst these effects will disproportionately impact the most vulnerable in society, every community will be affected.

9 HEADLINES Climate change is damaging health worldwide

10 From Human warming exposure 0.9 o C: >2x global area average temperature Heatwave exposure : +125 million aged >65years (record 175m in 2015) Labour productivity 5.3% in exposed populations Weather-related disasters 44% Climate-related economic losses to $129 billion (99% lowincome country losses uninsured).

11 Dengue Since 1950: Vectorial capacity for dengue transmission (Aedes aegypti) 9.4% Cases of dengue have doubled every decade since 1990, with 58.4 million cases in 2013, accounting for over 10,000 deaths and 1.14 million (0.73 million 1.98 million) disability-adjusted life-years

12 Food Security Crop yields for staples (excluding rice) predicted to decline by 8% by the 2050s in S Asia (-16% maize, -11% sorghum) &Africa (-17% wheat, -5% maize, -15% sorghum, -10% millet), currently the most food insecure regions. Maize and soybean down 30-46% (best) and 63 82% (worst warming) in next 80 years.

13 1 billion people rely on fish as their principal source of protein In twelve fishery locations essential for aquatic food security (NASA s Earth Observatory Databank), sea surface temperature rose 1 o C (1985 to 2016)

14 Migration and Displacement In 2000, 634 million (~10% of the global population) lived <10 m above sea level Expected 1,005-1,091 million by 2050 From 2100 and beyond, without mitigation and adaptation interventions, over one billion people may need to migrate due to sea level rise caused by ice shelf collapse

15 Key Conclusion: Delay The delayed response to climate change over the past two decades has jeopardised human life and livelihoods. 15

16 Key Conclusion: Opportunity "Although progress has been historically slow, the past 5 years have seen an accelerated response, and in 2017 momentum is building across a number of sectors; the direction of travel is set, with clear and unprecedented opportunities for public health." 16

17 Thank You

18 Climate change impacts, exposure and adaptation Climate Change Impacts, Exposures & Vulnerabilities Georgina Mace Public & Political Engagement Finance and Economics The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change Mitigation Actions & Health Co-Benefits Adaptation Planning & Resilience for Health Climate change impacts Exposure of people globally to these impacts The rate of adaptation of key systems and infrastructure to deal with present and future risks 18

19 Lethality of weather-related disasters Headline Finding: Annual weatherrelated disasters have increased by 46% from 2000 to Accelerated efforts towards poverty reduction and sustainable development have helped minimise harm to-date, however limits to adaptive capacity will quickly be reached. 19

20 Health effects of temperature change Headline Finding: Between 2000 and 2016, temperatures rose by 0.9 o C where people are living. 20

21 Health effects of heatwaves Headline Finding: Between 2000 and 2016, the number of vulnerable people exposed to heatwave events has increased by around 125 million. 21

22 Change in labour capacity Headline Finding: Global physical labour capacity in populations exposed to temperature change has decreased by around 5.3% between 2000 and

23 Spending on adaptation for health and health-related activities Headline finding: Out of the world's total adaptation spend just 4.63% ($16.46 billion USD) is on health and 13.3% ($47.29 billion USD) on health-related adaptation. 23

24 Climate information services for health Headline Finding: Out of the 100 WHO Member States responding to the WMO Survey, 73% report providing climate information to the health sector in their country. 24

25 Climate-resilient health infrastructure Headline Finding: Just over one in three responding countries reported implementing activities to increase the climate resilience of their health infrastructure. 25

26 Conclusion 1. Climate change is already impacting human health 2. Not enough is being done to adapt to climate change or improve the resilience of populations and health systems 3. There are clear limits to adaptation 26

27 Mitigation Actions and Health Co-Benefits Climate Change Impacts, Exposures & Vulnerabilities Andy Haines Public & Political Engagement The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change Adaptation Planning & Resilience for Health Finance and Economics Mitigation Actions & Health 0 Co-Benefits 27

28 3.1. Carbon intensity of the energy system 3.1. Carbon intensity of the energy system Headline Finding: Globally, the carbon intensity of total primary energy supply (TPES) has remained stable since 1990, between tco2/tj, reflecting the significant global challenge of energy system decarbonisation. 28

29 3.2. Coal phase-out 3.2. Coal phase-out Headline Finding: Total Primary Energy Supply of coal peaked in 2013 and has been rapidly declining since then. Between 2016 and 2017, the amount of additional coal capacity planned for construction, halved. 29

30 3.3. Zero-carbon emission electricity 3.3. Zero-carbon emission electricity Headline Finding: Globally, renewable electricity as a share of total generation has increased by over 20% from 1990 to 2013, but wind, solar, geothermal, marine only accounted for 4.2% of total global generation 30

31 Exposure to ambient air pollution in cities Exposure to ambient air pollution in cities Headline Finding: 71% of the 2,971 cities in the WHO s database, and 87% of a random sample of cities do not satisfy WHO annual fine particulate matter exposure recommendations. 31

32 Sectoral contributions to air pollution Sectoral contributions to air pollution Headline Finding: The energy sector is the single largest source of man-made air pollution, producing 85% of particulate matter. 32

33 3.6. Clean fuel use for transport Headline Finding: Global transport fuel use (TJ) has increased by almost 24% since 1990 on a per capita basis. While petrol and diesel continue to dominate, electric vehicles are poised to reach cost-parity, with more than 2 million electric vehicles being sold between 2010 and

34 3.7. Sustainable travel infrastructure and uptake Headline Finding: Levels of sustainable travel appear to be increasing in many European cities, but cities in emerging economies are facing sustainable mobility challenges. 34

35 3.9. Healthcare sector emissions 3.9. Healthcare sector emissions NHS GHG emissions reduced by 11% from 2007 to 2015, despite an 18% increase in activity. 35

36 GHG emissions from food and agriculture Average dietary CO2e emissions per person in the UK are ~2050 kg/year (or 5.6 kg/day) - Following optimisation to meet WHO nutritional guidelines, CO2e emissions per person reduced to ~1700 kg/year (4.7 kg/day) -= 17% decrease in dietary GHG emissions - The dietary changes would save almost 7 million life years over 30 years, mainly due to reductions in coronary heart disease. - Equivalent to an increase in life expectancy of just over 8 months (Milner et al 2015 BMJ Open)

37 RCP UK policy brief RCP UK policy brief 44 of the 51 UK cities exceeded WHO s recommended limit for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution Air pollution leads to ~ 40,000 premature deaths, over six million sick days and an estimated total social cost of 22.6 billion per year. Active transport average social ROI of approximately 5.50 per 1 spent. UK government spend in 2017 on walking and cycling 287million per year ( 4.30 per head). Down to 147 million by 2020? 37

38 Conclusion Conclusion 1. The mitigation response to climate change has been slow, with progress only seen in recent years. 2. There are reasons for optimism, but much more needs to be done. 3. There are significant health and economic benefits to reaped in the UK and other countries by investing in climate change mitigation. 38

39 Thank You

40 Tuesday 21 November 2017 Macmillan Room, Portcullis House Co-hosted by: