The 14th Annual APGTF Workshop: The Role of Fossil Fuel Power Plant in Providing Flexible Generation

Transcription

1 The 14th Annual APGTF Workshop: The Role of Fossil Fuel Power Plant in Providing Flexible Generation Strategic Assessment of the Role and Value of Generation and Storage Flexibility in Low Carbon Energy Futures Goran Strbac Imperial College London

2 Topics Challenges of integrating low-carbon technologies in future electricity systems Role of flexible fossil fuel plant in facilitating cost effective integration of renewables Benefits of and volume of the market for flexibility Impact on plant operating patterns and load factors Benefits of energy storage Allocating cross-border capacity for exchange of energy and flexibility Rewarding flexibility - challenges for market design 2

3 ISSUE B / C Collins Bartholomew Ltd 1999 Tongland UK Response to Climate Change Challenge -2020: 25-30% of all electricity demand to be met by renewable generation : -Largely decarbonised electricity generation, while Pentland Firth THE SHETLAND ISLANDS /09 TRANSMISSION SYSTEM AS AT 31st DECEMBER kV Substations 275kV Substations 132kV Substations 400kV Circuits 275kV Circuits 132kV Circuits Major Generating Sites Including Pumped Storage Connected at 400kV Connected at 275kV Hydro Generation Electrifying segments of transport and heat sectors in order to reduce CO2 emissions by 80% by

4 Balancing and Need for Flexibility Number of hours with zero or negative prices High Generation Flexibility Low Generation Flexibility 200 >1500 Unprecedented price volatility. value of energy frequently lower than value of flexibility leading to increased base-load & peak generation investment risks......while providing significant opportunities for flexible generation, demand side response, storage, interconnection 4

5 Valuing Flexible Balancing Technologies Flexible Generation Interconnection Storage Increasing asset utilisation and efficiency of operation Demand Response Cost effectiveness of alternative technology options will be system specific Key questions: (1) What are the performance and cost targets for alternative technologies? (2) Understand the competitiveness and synergies between alternative technologies 5

6 :00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 00:00 Aggregate demand (MW) Demand + outages net wind (MW) Demand + outages net wind (MW) Generation (MW) 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 Aggregate wind power (p.u.) Demand net wind (MW) Quantifying the value of fossil-fuel plant flexibility advanced tool for time-domain plant scheduling startup Time (hrs) Wind uncertainty model Available Time (hrs) Demand uncertainty model Online μ Δt Outage model λ Δt Unavailable Wind statistics Wind risk wind forecast demand forecast Demand risk Outage risk Deterministic UC 50th percentile Reserve Time (hr) wind, demand, outage realisation Time horizon (hr) Deterministic security targets Storage Capacity: 18GWh Rating: +/- 4GW Round-trip efficiency: 72% Scheduling model Stochastic UC Time horizon (hr) VOLL 30,000 / MWh Optimised reserve and response requirements and delivery Technical and cost parameters (Rated output, MSG, Ramp-rates, Min up-/downtime, Response slope, Efficiency curve, Fuel costs, Start-up costs, Emissions) Time (hr) Dispatch, operating costs, CO2 emissions... Wind Storage coal CCGT Nuclear online capacity Demand 6

7 Flexibility of generation, not only capacity and energy provision, will be critical Enhanced flexibility (MSG) & efficiency Low Nuclear High Nuclear 7

8 Enhancing flexibility will lead to increase in number of start ups Flexible Inflexible 8

9 Impact of flexibility on plant portfolio energy production Low nuclear High nuclear Will future market design adequately reward flexibility? 9

10 Time resolution & value of fast peaking plant (2020) 10

11 Impact of fast peaking plant on number of start-ups 11

12 Million per year Value of interconnection in facilitating integration of intermittent renewable generation Two identical system: no value in energy arbitrage Benefits of sharing reserve across 2GW interconnection Benefits of EU-wide integration Of balancing market 2.5bn in 2030 Co-optimisation of energy and reserve? Can flexibility be traded cross-border? 15% wind 30% wind 45% wind 12

13 Member state-centric or EU-wide capacity adequacy market? Additional peaking capacity (GW) EU Wide approach can save GW of plant! 65 0 Baseline Integrated Int Low TX Int Self-secure Int EU reserve Int DSR Can you really trust when it comes to security? Savings up to 7bn per annum 13

14 Response (MW) Significant increase in frequency regulation requirements driven by reduced Inertia Enhanced Standard Power output (MW) 14

15 Value of generators with high response capability Base case High nuclear case 15

16 Load p.f. (W) Cost savings per fridge ( /appl) Can smart refrigerators displace a power station?? = +...but the beer is getting warm! Load per fridge (p.f) Demand 60Gw 100% Refigerators, step 1.320GW ramp 0 55 DDC No DDC RES NUC2050 RES2030 NUC RES2050W NUC2050W RES2030W Time (min) fridges are supporting the system 0 25% 50% 75% 100% DD penetration NUC2030W CUR

17 Savings facilitated by storage - Renewables scenario 2030 Cost of storage /kw

18 Annual savings ( bn/year) How competitive is storage? Storage cost ( /kw.year) Cost of storage /kw Storage only Interconnection Flex. generation Flexible demand Installed storage capacity (GW) OPEX G CAPEX T CAPEX IC CAPEX D CAPEX S CAPEX Total 18

19 Impact of Efficiency of Storage market signals 19

20 Operating patterns and life-time Distributed Bulk 20

21 Complexity of storage: Split benefits Balancing services Network services Can the market facilitate this?

22 Competitiveness of flexible generation For low cost of generation flexibility (GL), build ~16-18 GW for high interconnection levels, ~28-36 GW for low interconnection levels RENEWABLES For high cost of flexibility (GH), build ~10 GW

23 Observations In low carbon electricity system, volume of energy produced by fossil-fuel generation will reduce but the value will increase significantly Synergies and conflicts between energy and flexibility markets need to be fully understood Flexibility needs to be rewarded balancing and ancillary services markets to reflect the value of of flexibility Present and proposed market designs will continue to undervalue flexibility - all market participants should be balance responsible Market needs to facilitate competition between different flexibility options Split benefits of storage pose significant market 23

24 Acknowledgments Modeling presented was carried out by Imperial team, including Danny Pudjianto, Fei Teng, Rodrigo Moreno, Marko Aunedi, Predrag Djapic, Christos Vasilakos, Vincenzo Trovato 24

25 The 14th Annual APGTF Workshop: The Role of Fossil Fuel Power Plant in Providing Flexible Generation Strategic Assessment of the Role and Value of Generation and Storage Flexibility in Low Carbon Energy Futures Goran Strbac Imperial College London