Preliminary results of scenario work towards the Italian Energy Strategy.

Transcription

1 Preliminary results of scenario work towards the Italian Energy Strategy. Maria Gaeta (ENEA) Michele Benini (RSE) Mario Contaldi (ISPRA) Maria Rosa Virdis (ENEA) E3s JP Workshop Madrid, March 3,

2 The task force for the Decarbonization of the Italian economy Aim Develop a «dashboard» to assess the environmental, economic and social impacts of the 2030 climateenergy targets Working Group 1 Non-technological input data Working Group 2 Energy technologies database Working Group 3 Scenarios Working Group 4 Synthesis and policy assessment More than 70 experts coming from public administrations, research centers, universities and industry involved 2

3 Objectives i. Set up an open data base of environmental, economic and technological information (WG1 and WG2) ii. iii. iv. Set up a coherent chain of modelling tools to develop the national scenarios and analyze their impacts (WG3) Develop both reference and policy scenarios for the National Climate-Energy Plan foreseen by the energy Union (WG3) Define/adopt a set of key indicators to build a dashboard to be used by decision makers to assess the impact of the policies that characterize the different de-carbonization scenarios (WG4) 3

4 Chain of modelling tools impact assessment Input WG1 Input WG2 Other common hypotheses Energy system model Times ENEA Energy system model Times ISPRA alignment Energy and emissions scenarios AIR QUALITY MODELS POWER & GAS SYSTEMS MODELS MACRO ECONOMIC MODELS Impact on air quality Impact on the power and gas systems Impact on the economy The parallel usage of two different models of the Italian energy system provides more robust results

5 The Reference or BASE Scenario: characterization Reference scenario to 2030 «Base»: Describes the evolution of the energy system based on policies enacted by 31 December 2014 (including a 1.74% a.a. reduction of ETS allowances to 2030) Is fully comparable with the PRIMES Reference 2016 scenario, of the EC (based on the same macroeconomic drivers: GDP, VA, POP, int.l fuel prices, CO2 price) Energy service demand, or physical output projections: exogenous but based on PRIMES Technology inputs for the power sector based on GdL2 Experiment terminated at the end of 2016, as soon as Base Scenario was completed, but scenario work goes on towards NES and Integrated energy and climate plan 5

6 The Policy scenario (SEN): characterization The policy scenario (SEN) builds upon the BASE scenario (same exogenous drivers) discussed and is optimized subject to two constraints: 1) GHG Emission reduction in the non-ets sectors (-32% w.r. to 2005 ) as in the EUCO30 scenario. An overall CO2 cap imposed for residential, services, industry and transport Non-energy GHG emissions equal those of the EUCO30 scenario for Italy 2) 1.5% /yr reduction of final energy use in as in proposed new EED (COM(2016)761 final). Meeting minimum efficiency requirements leads to a final energy consumption of Mtoe by 2030 In the Base case the ETS sector meets the 2030 target vs 2005), so no further constraint imposed and CO2 price assumed same. Removed constraints on capacity potential for onshore wind and PV that increase to 16 GW (+0.5 GW off-shore) e 40 GW respectively. Contrary to the EUCO30 scenario, no renewables target on gross final energy consumption or emission targets to 2050 is assumed. 6

7 Results: Gross Inland Consumption, Mtoe Renewable energy Electricity Nuclear 80 Natural gas Oil 20 Solids Historic Base Policy Base Policy Gross Inland Consumption (Mtoe) Base scenario reproduces rather closely the EU Ref2016 scenario for Italy: some differences for industry, residential, transport UC-Studi 7

8 TWh Results: Power sector Power generation Geothermal and other renewables Solar 250 Wind Hydro (pumping excluded) Biomass-waste Gas (including derived gases) Oil (including refinery gas) Solids UC-Studi

9 Mtep Results: Final energy consumption by source: differences Policy vs Base 2 1 Solids 0 Oil -1-2 Gas Electricity Heat (from CHIP and District Heating) Renewable energy forms 9

10 Results: Final energy consumption by sector: change Policy vs Base. Mtoe Industry Residential Tertiary Transport

11 Mtep Results: Transport sector Mtoe Elettricità Metano Biofuel Prod petroliferi BASE EUCO

12 Results: GHG emissions ETS and ESD sectors ETS GHG Emissions in Italy [MtCO 2 eq] % Reductions w.r. to 2005 Scenario EUref % BASE % Policy* % ETS GHG target % ESD GHG Emissions in Italy [MtCO 2 eq] % Reductions w.r. to 2005 Scenario EUref % -26% BASE % -23% Policy* % -30% ESD GHG target % -33% In the Policy scenario if the GHG emissions reduction target for the ESD sector is computed with respect to the 2005 value indicated by the PRIMES (331 Mt) the reduction achieved is -31,5%. Using the updated 2005 of Mt the reduction achieved is -30%. 12

13 Results: Renewables share Preliminary figures 50,0% 45,0% 40,0% 35,0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 13,0% 18% 18% 24% 21% RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (in%) RES-H&C share RES-E share 10,0% 5,0% RES-T share 0,0% SEN BASE SEN BASE

14 Cumulated additional investments: Policy vs Base In the Residential sector 68 B of which 68% in building and 23% on heat pumps In the Services sector 47 B of which 85% in buildings In the Transport sector 80 B of which 92% for private vehicles In the Industry sector 3,4 B mainly in process technologies. The Industrial sector presents emission reductions and efficiency gains connected to the ETS sectors already in the Base scenario. In the Policy scenario the additional energy efficiency gain is linked mainly to non-ets sectors. 14

15 Analysis of Impacts in the Power market Electricity demand was regionalized replicating the Base scenario with RSE multiregional model MONET (TIMES based). smtsim (RSE) e Promed Grid (CESI) were used to estimate import export flows from/to the rest of Europe, assuming for Italy power demand and generation capacity as in the Base scenario and different values for net imports. Started with 31 TWh as in «EU Reference 2016» up to 57 TWh. The «Base» scenario does not foresee by 2030 significant changes in power consumption for heating using electric heat pumps or for electric vehicles recharge. Only significant increase is for cooling demand (+15,4 TWh) that causes higher summer peak loads (+6,2 GW): new peak at 65,5 GW. No critical situation as a result of the scenario (es. grid congestion, coverage of demand peak, excess production of NPR, reserve margins). With higher net imports increased use of pumped storage, lower thermal generation, lower CO2 emissions, lower power prices, reduced interzone congestion. 15

16 Power market 1/2 The Policy scenario was also analyzed including reserve margins constraints and higher generation capacity from PV (up to 40 GW of FV) In the policy scenario the increased production from renewables l(+23,5 TWh) compared to the Base case determines a 4 /MWh reduction of the power price Critical situations for the power market are limited but if reserve margins are imposed the system is more likely to resort to curtailment of non programmable renewables production or to other flexibility measures (new storage systems, demand response, etc ) thus reducing some of the advantages from increased renewables production. Bilanci Thermoelectric production (Dispatchable) Pumping (consumption) Overgeneration Variation CO 2 Emission TWh TWh TWh MtCO 2 BASE 141,7 0,5 < 0,1 - Policy 123,2 2,5 1,6-9,9 Policy w. Reserve 128,0 5,1 5,2-6,8 16

17 Concluding observations Need to integrate the modelling suite used with models that adequately represent the agriculture and forestry sector (LULUCF). Need to get the Ministry of agriculture and forestry to think seriously about planning for climate policy purposes Bring climate issues in the agenda of the Ministry of transport and infrastructure Improve representation in the energy model of transport infrastructure and modal shift 17