SEA for Baffin Bay and Davis Strait. Two New Scenarios. Nunavut Tunngavik Incorporated SEA Final Public Meeting March 19, 2019

Transcription

1 SEA for Baffin Bay and Davis Strait Two New Scenarios Nunavut Tunngavik Incorporated SEA Final Public Meeting March 19,

2 Focus of our Presentation 1. Possible production of LNG from the Saglek Basin in southern Davis Strait 2. The need to deal with climate change may result in no development 2

3 Why more scenarios? Consider: 1. Oil and gas potential 2. Sea ice 3. Climate change mitigation 3

4 Where is the oil and gas potential? BF Baffin Fan Saglek Basin SB 4

5 Development in the Baffin Fan is limited by the Lancaster Sound NMCA 5

6 Scenario #1 Saglek Basin Production 6

7 The Hekja scenario: Hekja field and Hekja East 7

8 Floating Gas Platform (FLNG) The Prelude 8

9 Breakup and freezeup of Nunavut ice Ice from late October or November to July or August 9

10 Ice moves at 10 to 15 km per day WCG = West Greenland Current BC = Baffin Current LC = Labrador Green light 2-7 km/day Purple- moderate 9 17 km/day Red strong 19 or more km/day Multi-year ice enters through Lancaster Sound and Nares Strait 10

11 Subsea-to-Shore: Snøhvit LNG Project, Norway Lower: Wellheads and facilities on the seafloor Upper: Processing Plant on Melkoya Island, Norway 11

12 Snøhvit processing plant Area is free of sea ice and icebergs. 12

13 The Hekja gas field and adjacent structure Hekja field (and SDL) is 80 km east of Loks Land (island) and 120 km from IOL (green) on Hall Peninsula Dotted red line shows the approximate area of a seismic structure 13

14 Development timeline for Saglek Basin Period Event Early Late year review of moratorium done CIRNAC decision to open some areas Seismic surveys Calls for Nominations Areas nominated. Calls for Bids; Exploration Licences (EL) EL Period 1. More Seismic surveys; Drilling 1+ wells Drilling is successful possible oil and/or gas EL Period 2. Drilling; Signif. Discovery Declaration SDL granted More drilling and studies; Commercial Discovery Declaration Feasibility studies; Development Plan; authorization issued Production Licence granted Construction First oil or gas produced and shipped Production; drilling more wells; expansion; decommissioning 14

15 Scenario #2 Climate Change/No Development 15

16 The Climate Change Problem Climate change present a danger to society The Paris Agreement has set goals of 2⁰C for the maximum temperature increase (above mid-1800s) and net-zero CO2 emissions This will reduce demand for oil and gas and may make Nunavut production uneconomic IF society meets the goals, the result will be No Oil and Gas Development in Nunavut 16

17 Emissions under Paris Agreement 17

18 Abundance of Coal, Oil and Gas Source: McGlade and Ekins 18

19 Demand for Coal, Oil and Gas under Paris Saglek Production Scenario 19

20 Changing Energy Use 20

21 Conclusions The most promising scenario for oil or gas in BB/DS is the production of gas from the Hekja field and a nearby structure ( Hekja East ) in the Saglek Basin. Offshore gas would be piped 80 km to Loks Land or the nearby mainland and converted to LNG, which would be shipped to markets by ice-breaking carriers. However, if countries reduce their use of fossil fuels in order to cut GHG emissions and mitigate dangerous climate change as many committed to do under the Paris Agreement demand for oil and gas will fall. There would be no oil and gas development in Nunavut. BUT, If the goals are missed, development may be possible. An in-depth study of the two scenarios is needed now. 21

22 Thank you ᖁᔭᓐᓇᒦᒃ 22