James Butler, CSIRO Land & Water. Climate change and regional security in the Pacific: implications for adaptation

Transcription

1 James Butler, CSIRO Land & Water Climate change and regional security in the Pacific: implications for adaptation

2 Structure 1. Climate change as a threat multiplier 2. An example: Papua New Guinea and the El Nino drought 3. Three propositions for defence, aid and adaptation research

3 What is security? Conventional political and military threats to the sovereignty of states security dilemmas arise in the balancing of power Copenhagen School (Buzan et al. 1998) declaring a referent object (no longer confined to states) as existentially threatened Human well-being and equality (Adger 2010; Adger et al. 2014)

4 Climate change as a threat multiplier for defence Following from UK MoD (2008) and USA DoD (2010): The impacts of climate change can exacerbate other stresses, such as poverty, economic shocks and unstable institutions, to make crises worse.

5 Clear climate fingerprint Cyclone Pam, Vanuatu, March 2015

6 Indirect fingerprint Drought and floods, wheat prices and the Arab Spring:

7 Impacts Population displacement, migration and local conflict Domestic, rural-urban Cross-border

8 Impacts International conflict Shared trans-boundary resources Islands and EEZs Cross-border

9 Synchronous failure Homer-Dixon et al Ecology and Society 20(3):6 Global crises more likely because: Unprecedented humaninduced changes to natural systems Increasing connectivity Homogenisation of cultures and institutions CC CC SS = simultaneous stresses LFBB = long fuse big bang RC = ramifying cascade

10 El Nino drought in PNG a trigger? Previous drought events: 1914, 1941, unexpected Low rainfall from April ,000 people affected (10%) by food and water shortages Areas most affected: remote areas in highlands (frosts), small islands

11 El Nino drought Bourke et al ANU

12 Secondary effects Health problems escalating (cholera, TB in Western Province) Food and fuel price increases Rice imports, cost of food aid Schools closing, theft Migration to urban areas Ok Tedi Mine closure Western Province Torres Strait illegal fishing

13 Simultaneous stresses Population growth % pa Resource degradation Deteriorating infrastructure Weak governance LNG gas revenue collapse Erosion of culture Rural-urban migration Unemployment West New Britain Low projection High projection Observed Med_proj Observed High_proj Observed 28 years to double = Long Fuse Big Bang? Ramifying Cascade?

14 Proposition 1: We must anticipate where to expect future crises Anticipatory versus reactionary Hot spot analysis to include simultaneous stresses and potential triggers: - climate change, sea level rise and extreme events - population growth and density - resource condition - infrastructure quality/quantity - governance - political context Value as a participatory capacity-building process (not index) for multiple stakeholders Political sensitivities

15 One likely predictor: density >100 people/km 2 Butler et al Marine Policy 46:1-13 Foale 2005 Dawson

16 Proposition 2: Trans-boundary governance structures must become more adaptive Trans-boundary agreements on shared resources e.g. - Torres Strait Treaty (Australia-PNG) - Border Agreement (PNG-Indonesia) Butler & Bohensky Ecology and Society special issue in prep.

17 Proposition 3: We focus on crises, and not enough on simultaneous stresses Identifying and tackling the stressors in hot spots could pre-empt crises Implications for aid to be more targeted and strategic building resilience? How can defence, aid and local objectives be integrated?

18 Thank you Tenku tru Esso