Towards a trilateral research agenda. Earth System Approach to Wadden Sea Region Research. Prof. Pavel Kabat

Transcription

1 Towards a trilateral research agenda Earth System Approach to Wadden Sea Region Research Prof. Pavel Kabat

2 (Regional) Global Change? 1. Global-scale changes that affect the functioning of the Earth System 2. Much more than climate change 3. Natural as well as anthropogenic changes 4. Socio-economic as well as biophysical For example, changes in: Nitrogen fixation Temperature Biodiversity.. Vitousek (1994) Reid & Miller (1989)

3 (Regional) Global Change? For example, changes in: Nitrogen fixation Temperature Biodiversity Atmospheric composition Population Nitrogen in the coastal zone Forest cover NOAA NASA Richards (1991), WRI (1990) U.S. Bureau of the Census Mackenzie et al (2002)

4 (Regional) Global Change? For example, changes in: Nitrogen fixation Temperature Biodiversity Atmospheric composition Population Nitrogen in the coastal zone Forest cover Climate Land use Nitrous oxide Exploitation of fisheries FAO IPCC Goldewijk and Battjes (1997)

5 The Earth System: Coupling the Physical, Biogeochemical and Human Components The past two decades have brought a fundamental change in the world view of the sciences of the Earth. We have become aware that global change, that massive interference of human activities with our environment, cuts across all components of the Earth System: solid earth, biosphere, atmosphere, land and oceans. We have learned that these impacts cannot be considered in isolation, but that interactions and feedbacks between the components of the Earth System play powerful and essential roles.

6 Understanding the Earth System requires asking ans solving system-level questions Mu ltiple Feed backs Non-linearities Scale interactions (local-regional-continental-global Hot spots in the Eath System Mu ltid iscip linarity (natu ral and social/ p olitical scie Cross-sectoral...

7 But who puts the puzzle together?

8 The Renaissance vision Sir Isaac Newton Principia The Anthropocene vision Terrestris Rationis Principia Our picture here????

9 FOTOS/ LIANA JOHN The Amazon Basin..

10 The forest...

11 Biodiversity...

12 The rains...

13 The rivers...

14 Fire...

15 Fire...

16 Future biodiversity?

17 Integrated Earth System Research at regional scale LBA the Large scale Biosphere atmosphere experiment in Amazonia to better understand the functioning of the Amazon rainforest as a regional integrated (eco)system and its global interactions to study the biophysical, ecological and societal consequences of the Amazon deforestation, both regionally and as a part of the entire Earth system (global tele-connections ) to provide a wealth of data and other research information in order to support scenarios for sustainable development of the Amazon region, both in the regional (national) and global context

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19 Cenarios da Amazonia Social, economical and political effects of development strategies for Amazon: an integrated approach Rainfall Climate Soils Extraction wood products AMAZONIA Forest Degraded forest Agriculture Cerrado Deforestation Vegetation and biodiversity

20 What do we really know of the Wadden Sea area?

21 A SPECIAL PLACE - FOR BOTH HUMAN AND NATURAL LIFE

22 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Sustainable development should fundamentally aim for coherent treatment of natural, ecological, social-cultural, and economical values And this requires both in-depth disciplinary as well as trans-disciplinary, integrated & system level scientific knowledge and understanding about functioning of Wadden Sea Regional System in the past, present and the future, both in the natural and anthropogenic modulated states

23 What is Integrated Research? it shows a combination of two or more disciplines with the emphasis on feedbacks and interactions.. it focuses attention on the interactions between space and time scales and on the accumulation of processes, interventions and impacts at interacting scales it is based on the co-production of knowledge in which knowledge demands are generated, knowledge is used and generated in close interaction between scientists, practitioners and policymakers (engaged scholarship) Texel, 4 September 2009

24 Matrix 1 WADDEN CLIMATE 2 WADDEN NATURE 3 WADDEN WELL-BEING A PAST WADDEN INTER- DISCIPLINARY B WADDEN MONITOR C WADDEN FUTURE CONNECTION IN SPACE AND TIME SCALES EFFECTIVE INTERACTIVE KNOWLEDGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND a WADDEN EXPERT b WORLD WADDEN Hamburg, 4 December 2009

25 1 WADDEN CLIMATE 2 WADDEN NATURE 3 WADDEN WELL-BEING A PAST WADDEN B WADDEN MONITOR C WADDEN FUTURE Aim: reconstruction of the climatological, geological, ecological, economic and sociocultural past of the Wadden Sea Region. a WADDEN EXPERT b WORLD WADDEN Period: 8200 BC (end Pleistocene) up to 1932 (construction IJsselmeer Dam). Hamburg, 4 December 2009

26 1 WADDEN CLIMATE 2 WADDEN NATURE 3 WADDEN WELL-BEING A PAST WADDEN B WADDEN MONITOR C WADDEN FUTURE Aim: monitoring of the natural and social dynamics of the wadden system. Focus on the systematic collection and supply of quantitative data. a WADDEN EXPERT Period: (end of various monitoring programmes). b WORLD WADDEN Hamburg, 4 December 2009

27 1 WADDEN CLIMATE 2 WADDEN NATURE 3 WADDEN WELL-BEING A PAST WADDEN B WADDEN MONITOR C WADDEN FUTURE Aim: understand and predict the development of the wadden system. Develop conceivable scenarios, based on multiple trend analyses and quantitative process models. a WADDEN EXPERT Period: b WORLD WADDEN Hamburg, 4 December 2009

28 1 WADDEN CLIMATE 2 WADDEN NATURE 3 WADDEN WELL-BEING A PAST WADDEN B WADDEN MONITOR Aims: co-creation of knowledge knowledge transfer C WADDEN FUTURE a WADDEN EXPERT training a new generation of wadden experts b WORLD WADDEN Hamburg, 4 December 2009

29 1 WADDEN CLIMATE 2 WADDEN NATURE 3 WADDEN WELL-BEING A PAST WADDEN B WADDEN MONITOR Aims: to integrate knowledge of the Dutch, German and Danish parts of the Wadden Sea Region; C WADDEN FUTURE a WADDEN EXPERT to make a systematic comparison of the Wadden Sea Region with tidal flat systems elsewhere. b WORLD WADDEN Hamburg, 4 December 2009

30 1 WADDEN CLIMATE 2 WADDEN NATURE 3 WADDEN WELL-BEING A PAST WADDEN B WADDEN MONITOR C WADDEN FUTURE Safety: how can the safety of the Wadden Sea Region and its population be guaranteed in the long-term, also taking into account the possible harmful effects of climate change? a WADDEN EXPERT b WORLD WADDEN Climate-neutral: how can a sustainable energy balance for the region be realised? Hamburg, 4 December 2009

31 1 WADDEN CLIMATE 2 WADDEN NATURE 3 WADDEN WELL-BEING A PAST WADDEN B WADDEN MONITOR C WADDEN FUTURE a WADDEN EXPERT b WORLD WADDEN Protection: how can the natural values be safeguarded? Development: which regional developments are possible within the constraints? Adaptation: how will the natural environment adapt to climate change, the introduction of invasive species, changes in the global economy? Hamburg, 4 December 2009

32 1 WADDEN CLIMATE 2 WADDEN NATURE 3 WADDEN WELL-BEING A PAST WADDEN B WADDEN MONITOR Sustainable economy: how can work and income for the residents be guaranteed in a sustainable manner? C WADDEN FUTURE a WADDEN EXPERT b WORLD WADDEN Liveable community and quality landscape: how can social cohesion, a recognisable manmade landscape and living heritage be safeguarded? Hamburg, 4 December 2009

33 Integrated Earth System Research at Regional Scale : the Large Scale Nature and Human Interaction Experiment in Wadden Sea Region