European vulnerability to global change

Transcription

1 European vulnerability to global change a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment Marc Metzger 2 nd AVEC summer school Peyresq, 29 September 2005

2 Presentation plan The ATEAM project Why vulnerability maps? Stratification The vulnerability framework Some maps and graphs Conclusions

3 The ATEAM modelling framework Global Changes Changes in ecosystem services Vulnerability multiple GCMs, 4 scenarios 14 models > 20 ecosystem services 1990, 2020, 2050, 2080 Europe wall to wall in 10 x 10

4 Exposure, sensitivity and potential impacts model model model model scenarios model model model model

5 Example ecosystem service maps # plant species

6 Vulnerability The degree to which an ecosystem service is sensitive to global environmental change and the degree to which the sector that relies on the service is unable to adapt to the changes. exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity

7 Vulnerability The degree to which an ecosystem service is sensitive to global environmental change and the degree to which the sector that relies on the service is unable to adapt to the changes. exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity

8 Vulnerability The degree to which an ecosystem service is sensitive to global environmental change and the degree to which the sector that relies on the service is unable to adapt to the changes. exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity

9 Vulnerability in ATEAM vulnerability framework model model model model scenarios Which regions are vulnerable? Which sectors are vulnerable? Which scenario is least harmful? How do two regions compare? model model model model ecosystem service

10 Towards quantifying vulnerability 1. V(es, x, s, t) = ƒ( E(es, x, s, t), S(es, x, s, t), AC(es, x, s, t) ) 2. PI(es, x, s, t) = ƒ( E(es, x, s, t), S(es, x, s, t) ) 3. V(es, x, s, t) = ƒ( PI(es, x, s, t), AC(es, x, s, t) ) V vulnerability E exposure S sensitivity AC adaptive capacity PI potential impact es ecosystem service x a grid cell s a scenario t a time slice exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity

11 Pl = f(s,e) Absolute change impacts that may occur in a grid cell given projected environmental change, without considering adaptation (based on IPCC TAR) Wood yield ( m3 /year)

12 Pl = f(s,e) Relative change Wood production ( m3 /year)

13 Requirements Standardized scale, i.e. 0 1 range PI placed in their European environmental context Somehow the Adaptive Capacity needs to be quantified

14 Stratification of the European environment global local climate geology / parent material hydrology soil vegetation fauna (after Klijn, 1997) reproducible and distinctive

15 EEA biogeographical regions

16 Potential Natural Vegetation (Bohn et al., 2000)

17 ESB Soils

18 ESB Soils

19 There are existing stratifications these form a useful description, but Class divisions are not quantified Are not easily related to global change scenarios Distinguish too many or too few classes

20 Statistical stratification for Europe Stage 1 selection classification parameters Stage 2 principal components Principal Components Analysis (PCA) ISODATA clustering preliminary classification Stage 3 Environmental Stratification post-processing

21 climate minimum temperature maximum temperature precipitation sunshine geomorphology (substitutes) altitude slope oceanicity annual temperature range divided by latitude northing latitude

22 The Environmental Stratification of Europe ALN2 ALN3 ALN3 ALN1 BOR1 ALN4 ALN4 Environmental Zone ATN1 ALN - Alpine North BOR - Boreal NEM - Nemoral ATN - Atlantic North ALS - Alpine South CON - Continental ATC - Atlantic Central PAN - Pannonian LUS - Lusitanian ANA - Anatolian MDM - Mediterranean Mountains (Metzger et al., 2005) MDN - Mediterranean North MDS - Mediterranean South BOR 1 ATN2 BOR2 ATN2 ALN2 BOR3 ALN3 ATN2 ATN2 ATN2 ATN2 ATN2 BOR5 BOR4 ALN4 BOR2 ALN 4 BOR6 ALN4 ATN2 ALN3 BOR8 ATN1 ATN1 ATN2 BOR7 NEM1 NEM3 ATN3 ATN3 ATN1 NEM6 BOR6 ATN1 ATN4 ATC1 ATN5 ATC3 CON9 NEM2 AT N5 NEM1 ATN1 ATN3 CON4 AT C3 ATC2 ATN5 NEM5 ATC3 ATN4 CON9 CON5 AT C2 CON10 ATC3 CON6 CON5 CON3 ALS4 ATC4 ALS4 CON9 CON7 PAN1 CON4 CON3 CON10 ALS4 ATC5 CON10 ALS4 CON6 ALS4CON4 CON7 CON6 CON9 CON4 CON8 CON9 CON9 LUS2 CON6 MDM1 ALS3 ALS2 MDM2 PAN2 ALS1 ALS1 PAN2 LUS4 ALS5 CON1 LUS4 ALS3 CON5 LUS3 ALS6 ALS6 ALS2 LUS1 MDM2 LUS4 ALS6 MDM2 PAN1 ALS6 LU S4 MDM4 CON4 MDM2 LUS4 MDM2 MDM4 MDM5 ALS6 CON8 MDM5 MDN4 PAN1 LUS3 MDM2 MDM1 MDN4 ALS5 ALS2 ALS2 MDN3 MDN1 LUS1 MDM5 MDN6 ALS2 MDM2 MDM7 MDN4 MDN2 CON8 MDN3 MDN4 PAN3 LUS4 MDN5 MDN3 MDN2 MDN5 MDM1 MDN1 MDM5 MDN7 MDM5 MDN9 CON12 LUS3 ALS5 MDN4 MDN5 MDM10 MDN6 MDM5 MDM6 MDM5 CON11 PAN3 MDN7 MDM6 MDN6 MDN3 CON6 PAN1 MDM7 MDN6 MDS1 MDN3 MDN5 MDM7 ALS6 MDN8 MDN10 MDN4 MDS1 MDN8 MDN2 CON11 MDS5 MDM6 MDM4 MDN7 CON11 CON8 MDM7 CON6 MDN6 MDN9 CON12 MDS3 MDN2 MDN4 MDS4 MDS3 PAN2 ALS6 MDN4 MDN3 MDS5 MDN7 MDN3 MDM2 MDN1 MDM5 MDN9 MDN7 MDN5 MDM2 MDS7 MDM8 MDN4 MDS4 MDS3 MDM2 MDN7 MDN8 MDN1 MDN5 MDN1 MDN8 MDN4 MDN6 MDN7 MDS5 MDM5 MDM6 MDN4 MDM5 MDM10 MDS3 ANA2 MDS6 MDM7MDM8 MDM7 MDN6 MDS1MDN6 MDN6 MDN6 MDS3 MDS1 AN A1 MDN8 MDM7 MDS1 MDM7 MDS5 MDM7 MDN9 MDS4 MDN9 MDM10 MDM8 MDS6 MDN8 ANA2 MDS6 MDS7 MDM1 0 MDS 6 MDS5 MDS8 MDS 4 MDN8 MDS7 MDM8 MDS8 MDS7 MDM10 MDM7 MDM9 MDS6 MDS7 MDS8 MDN8 MDS5 MDS7 MDM9 MDS7 MDM11 MDM8 MDS8 MDS9 MDS7

23 CON3 ATC5 ALN1 BOR1 ATC4 PAN2 NEM2 BOR3 CON10 BOR7 NEM5 NEM1 BOR4 LUS2 PAN3 BOR5 ALN2 CON5 ATN4 MDM11 ATC2 CON4 PAN1 NEM3 BOR6 CON7 CON10 BOR8 ATN3 BOR2 ALN3 BOR2 MDS9 MDS1 ALS6 CON12 AT C2 PAN3 MDN9 CON6 MDM9 CON9 ATC3 MDS8 PAN2 MDS8 CON1 CON7 ALS3 MDS5 PAN1 ALS5 AN A1 ATN5 CON9 MDM8 MDN1 ALS1 MDN5 MDS4 MDM5 NEM6 MDM10 ALS2 ALS6 MDN5 MDS3 ATC1 LUS1 ATN1 MDN3 ATN4 ALS4 LUS4 MDN3 MDS6 CON11 ATN3 CON3 MDS6 MDN10 MDN7 MDN1 ALS6 MDM6 MDS1 ALS5 MDS4 CON6 MDN4 CON5 CON4 CON9 MDM7 ALN3 MDN8 ATN3 MDN4 MDS7 NEM1 ANA2 MDM9 MDN7 LUS3 MDS8 ALS5 MDM5 CON9 PAN2 LUS4 CON5 MDN7 MDM1 0 MDS3 MDS7 MDM2 MDM4 MDN9 MDN6 ATC3 ALS1 ALS4 CON4 CON6 ATN2 ALN4 MDM1 MDS4 ALS2 MDN1 MDN4 BOR 1 ALS6 LUS3 LUS3 ATC3 MDN6 CON4 MDN6 ALN 4 MDN3 MDS7 CON9 MDS5 PAN1 MDM2 MDN5 CON4 MDM5 MDS5 MDN1 LUS4 MDN8 CON10 MDM7 MDN9 MDN4 MDS7 LUS1 MDN9 MDS1 ALS4 MDN7 BOR6 MDM6 MDS3 ALS4 PAN1 MDN1 ALN2 MDN8 MDS 6 MDM8 MDM2 CON8 MDM2 MDS5 MDM5 CON11 MDN8 MDS6 MDN6 MDM8 MDN3 CON12 MDM6 ALS6 ALS6 ALS2 ALN3 ATN5 MDN5 MDN3 MDS1 MDN2 MDM5 MDN9 MDS7 MDM5 MDN4 CON8 MDM5 MDN3 MDM7 ALN3 ALS6 MDS8 MDS3 AT C3 ALS4 MDS1 MDS7 MDM5 MDM6 MDN4 MDS5 ALS3 CON6 MDN5 ATN1 MDM7 MDS6 MDM2 MDN8 MDM5 CON6 ALS2 ALS2 CON9 MDN6 MDM7 MDN4 CON6 MDN7 CON11 MDN7 MDN2 AT N5 MDN6 MDM10 ALN4 MDM5 MDN6 MDM4 MDN5 MDM2 MDN3 MDM8 MDM1 MDN4 MDS 4 LUS4 MDN8 MDM2 ATN1 MDM10 MDN6 ATN2 ATN1 MDS5 ATN2 MDN8 MDN4 MDM2 MDM10 MDM7 MDM8 MDN7 MDS3 LUS4 ATN1 MDN8 ATN2 ATN1 MDM2 MDM7 LU S4 MDN4 MDM7 MDM4 MDM7 MDM2 MDN4 MDS7 ATN2 ANA2 MDM7 CON8 MDS7 MDN6 MDN6 ALN4 ATN2 MDM1 CON8 ATN2 ALN4 ATN2 ATN2 MDN2 MDN2 statistically derived explicit classes 1km 2 resolution 84 classes 3 aggregation levels core classification easily adapted to user s need The Environmental Stratification of Europe

24 Potential Natural Vegetation 0.8 PCA1 area-percentage of vegetation R 2 = 0.85 Pearson correlation coeff significant at 0.01 level PCA1 of EnC classification variables

25 The Environmental Stratification of Europe

26 Shifting environments

27 Stratifying ATEAM maps stratified ecosystem service provision ecosystem service provision Ecosystem service provision placed in environmental context 0 1 unitless range! Wood production

28 Potential Impact impacts that may occur in a grid cell given projected environmental change, without considering adaptation (based on IPCC TAR) Value in grid cell Absolute change environment 1 grid cell A grid cell B present future present future environment 2 grid cell C grid cell D present future present future Relative change -20% -20% -20% -20% Highest ecosystem service value (ESref) Stratified ES supply Stratified Potential Impact

29 Stratified Potential Impact wood production stratification stratified Stratified wood production Potential Impact A

30 Change in stratified Potential Impact Stratified change Places changes in environmental context

31 Adaptive Capacity adaptive capacity Freedom index Equality Gini coefficient Literacy rate Awareness Enrolment ratio Knowledge Human Freedom R & D investment Technology Number of patents Transport network Ability Adaptive Capacity 1990 Infrastructure Number of doctors GDP per capita Flexibility Age dependency ratio Budget surplus Action Economic Power Share to world trade 2080A (Klein et al., in prep.)

32 Adaptive Capacity 2080 economic A1 A2 global regional B1 B2 environmental

33 Vulnerability 2080A1 wood production PI Sstr AC adaptive capacity vulnerability potential impact -1.0 low V high AC high low PI

34 Wood production 2080 economic A1 A2 global regional B1 B2 environmental

35 Farmer livelihood 2080 economic A1 A2 global regional B1 B2 environmental

36 Biodiversity trees 2080 economic A1 A2 global regional B1 B2 environmental

37 But how analyze these maps?? pixels 7 scenarios x 3 time slices + baseline 20 ecosystem services Service provision, PI, PIstr, AC, V About 2500 maps Climate, land use, socio economics Another 700 maps

38 Further analysis possible in ATEAM tool

39 Some results 2080A1 farmer livelihood farmer livelihood 2080A1

40 Some results 2080A1 farmer livelihood A1 A2 B1 B2 scen HadCM3 gcm AT BE CH DE DK EL ES FI FR IE IT LU NL NO PT SE UK PI country

41 Some results Development of Adaptive Capacity 0.90 Environmental Zone Atlantic North Mediterranean North Adaptive Capacity index SRES storyline A1 - global economic A2 - regional economic B1 - global environmental B2 - regional environmental baseline

42 Some results

43 Some conclusions There is large heterogeneitiy in vulnerability between regions between ecosystem services between scenarios The Mediterranean region is most vulnerable NW European countries are least vulnerable Agriculture and nature conservation sectors most vulnerable Dicotomy between AC and PI in scenarios

44 Discussion of approach Increased uncertainty Limited knowledge adaptive capacity Difficult to relate to regional situation Confrims existing knowledge, detailed analysis possible Stimulates discussion