Information and Knowledge Management Programme - Modelling Component

Transcription

1 Information and Knowledge Management Programme - Modelling Component

2 1. The Council Study Hydrologic Assessment Discipline Team led by the Information and Knowledge Management Programme (IKMP) is responsible for carrying out the hydrologic, hydraulic, sediment transport, and water quality modeling required to support the assessment of environmental and socio-economic impacts associated with water resources developments in six thematic areas or development sectors. 2. The Modeling Team of IKMP will then translate these descriptive scenario definitions into numeric model inputs (The specifications for the different model scenarios will be defined by the Thematic Teams of the Council Study): Prepare and Update the Input data, Model Setup and formulate different Scenarios Provide the simulated results and assessment 3. The modeling results will be reviewed, quality-checked and interpreted by the Modeling Team and documented in Technical Reports.

3 The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is comprised of five different zones. Each of these zones might require a different set of models: The 1D model for hydraulic modeling of the upper reaches of the Mekong mainstream and Lower Kratie; The 2D (or 3D) modeling of the Tonle Sap Great Lake is almost inevitable. The purpose is: 1. To identify several feasible model configuration options that will meet the modeling requirements of the Council Study 2. To support the decision makers in selecting which models/model combinations to employ for the Council Study

4 As request on the simulated result, apart from standard hydrologic/hydraulic parameters such as runoff and water depth, parameters on nutrients, sediments and water quality are considered as highly important for further analysis in the Council Study. In particular, nutrients and water quality (apart from salinity) and to some extent sediments are not included into present day modeling routines at IKMP. IKMP utilizes the Mekong River Commission (MRC) Decision Support Framework (DSF) as standard modeling tool box. This tool box will be used as the primary basis for the modeling work for the Council Study, in particular the use of the approved DSF models such as SWAT, IQQM, and isis.

5 Due to its current modeling limitations, other models will be identified and evaluated to address these limitations and augment the current modeling functionalities of the DSF models to support the Council Study The Possible choice will be described using: 1. Several selection criteria (Model Capacity, Model available and existing input data using for each Model) and 2. Time of implementation 3. Including required cost and

6 MODEL INTRODUCTION

7 ArcGIS SWAT DSF Model SWAT Models Data Analysis Tool DSF IAT & Reporting Tool Additional Tools Toolbox Software IQQM ISIS IWRM 123D Future Software IQQM Models ISIS Models IWRM Models Future Models Process Models KB Query Tool GIS Base KB Data Transfer Tool Data Management Tool QA Tool Software Manager Model Manager MRC Master Catalogue

8 n Support BDP with basin-wide planning tools Development scenarios n Simulation of development scenarios n Support Rules Formulation in analytical tools Planning data Decision Support Framework Impact assessment n Analysis of changes in water conditions n Support other sector programs with hydrometeorologic information Planning decisions on Rules & BDP n n Platform for impact assessment Stores acquired knowledge

9 Capacity of DSF Package to providing result for Hydrological and Sediment Assessment Model Capacity Model Output: Daily discharge, water level from Zone 1, 2, 3 Flow/WL Sediment Water quality *Monthly sediment from (Calibration Needed) SWAT/IQQM * - Modelling Gap: lack 2D, 3D Sediment Modelling Mainstream Mekong 1D - isis (Upper Kratie) * - lack Water Quality Modelling Model Capacity Model Output Daily discharge, water level from Zone 4a, 4b Flow/WL Sediment Water quality Inundated area of Floodplain in the Tonle Sap Tonle Sap River and SWAT/IQQM - - Modelling Gap: lack 2D, 3D Sediment Modelling Great Lake 1D - isis (Lower Kratie) - - lack Water Quality Modelling Model Capacity Model Output Daily discharge, water level from Zone 5 Flow/WL Sediment Water quality Salinity Inundated area of Floodplain in the Mekong Delta The Cambodia and IQQM Salinity Impact in the Mekong Delta Vietnamese Delta 1D - isis (Lower Kratie) - - Modelling Gap: lack 2D, 3D Sediment Modelling lack Water Quality Modelling Remark : * = Model Calibration Need - Define as Modelling Gap Legend: Available * Available, but recalibration is required Grey shaded cells mark model gaps

10 Model Scope Model Capability MRC Decison Support Framework package Hydrologic Model SWAT Water Balance Model IQQM Hydrodynamic Model ISIS WUP-FIN model package Hydrologic model Model Model Area UMB, LMB from China Border - Kratie, Great Lake (Tonle Sap) UMB, LMB from China Border - Kratie, Great Lake (Tonle Mekong Mainstream from Chiang Saen - Kratie, Cambodia Flood Plain - Mekong Delta Legend: x Available UMB, LMB from China Border - VMOD Kratie, Great Lake (Tonle *x Available, but recalibration is required Sap),Mekong Delta NA Not available (shaded in grey) Water Balance Model IWRM Hydrodynamic Model EIA 3D Model UMB, LMB from China Border - Kratie, Great Lake (Tonle Sap), Mekong Delta Great Lake (Tonle Sap), Mekong Delta Mekong Mainstream Tributaries Great Lake (Tonle Sap) Mekong Delta Flow Sediment Water Quality x x x NA x *x NA x x x x x NA NA x NA x x x NA NA x x x x x NA NA x x x x x *x NA NA NA x x x *x *x

11 The main issues of the DSF within the context of the Council Study modeling requirements are as follows: 1. The current DSF models have not been applied to simulate sediment and water quality fate and transport including nutrients due to the limited on time and quality of sediment and water quality data is still suspect and need further investigation. 2. Despite complex flow conditions in floodplains and reservoirs including the Tonle Sap -Great Lake, they can only be simulated in isis using one-dimensional hydrodynamic flow model. 3. 1D-ISIS models for the Mekong Mainstream (from Chiang Saen Kratie is still under the process of testing by Modelling Team and waiting for approval for official use by the Technical Assistance and Coordination Team)

12 The IWRM modeling system consists of the following two components: 1. VMOD (IWRM/HAE) distributed hydrological model with comprehensive water management, farming system, erosion, hydropower and climate change subcomponents; simple flooding is included for crop impact modeling. 2. Combined 1D/2D hydrodynamic model for flooding, erosion, water quality, primary productivity and fisheries productivity.

13 Legend: x Available *x Available, but recalibration is required NA Not available (shaded in grey)

14 The main issues of the WUP-FIN models in the context of the Council Study modeling requirements are the following: 1. The WUP-FIN models need recalibration as they have not been updated with the most recent available data. 2. The WUP-FIN models do not cover the entire LMB.

15 The Mike-DHI modeling system consists of the following two components: 1. Mike Hydro: distributed hydrological model with comprehensive water management, farming system, hydropower and climate change sub-components; simple flooding is included for crop impact modeling. 2. Combined 1D/2D hydrodynamic model for flooding, erosion, water quality, primary productivity and fisheries productivity.

16 Model Name Model Area Model Scope Hydologic + Water balance Model Mike Basin UMB, LMB from China Border - Kratie, Great Lake Hydrodynamic Model: Mike 11 UMB, LMB from China Border - Kratie, Great Lake Mike 21 (2D) MK mainstream from ChiengSaen - Kratie, Great Lake Model Capacity MK mainstream Tributaries Great Lake Mekong Delta Flow Sediment Water Quality x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x NA x NA x x x Remark: NA = Not available

17 The main issues of the DHI modelling package in the context of the Council Study modelling requirements are the following: 1. The DHI modelling package has not been officially approved by MRC for the Lower Mekong Basin. 2. A license of the DHI modelling package would have to be purchased by MRC before it can be used for the Council Study. 3. The Modeling Team at IKMP will need further training on the DHI Modelling Package and/or DHI personnel or other external consultants will have to be employed to primarily conduct the modelling for the Council Study.

18 POSSIBLE CHOICE

19 The review of capacity and gap of model reveals a number of possible combinations/configurations of these two modeling packages that could be viable approaches to meet the modeling requirements of the Council Study. These possible model configurations are:. Possible choice 1 MRC DSF (Supplemented by WUP-FIN Models) Possible choice 2 Balanced Configuration of MRC DSF and WUP-FIN Models to take Advantage of Respective Model Strengths Possible choice 3 MRC DSF (Supplemented by DHI-Mike Models)

20 Possible choice 1: MRC DSF (Supplemented by WUP-FIN Models) This is evaluated to be the most suitable choice. This will focus on using the core DSF as the main model. The WUP-FIN model will be used to fill the gap on water quality and if needed, 3D model. SWAT and IQQM will be used to simulate basin hydrology for all five zones (except zone 5 in Delta: IQQM will be used to calculate the water demand only) and water quality in zones 1 to 3. isis will be used to simulate hydrodynamics for zones 4 and 5, the ISIS for zone 1-3 only use for the MeKong mainstream, and sediment transport for zones 1 to 3. The results from isis in zones 3, and 4 area connected will be taken as boundary conditions and input for the 2/3D EIA model to model hydrodynamics, sediment, and water quality in zones 4 and 5 in more detail. Dam operation will be simulated using IQQM. The simulated runoff / reservoir storage and reservoir inflow will provide flow boundary conditions for the 3D EIA model to simulate sedimentation and water quality in the artificial reservoirs.

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22 Possible choice 2: Balanced Configuration of MRC DSF and WUP-FIN Models to take Advantage of Respective Model Strengths This will focus on a more balanced configuration between MRC s DSF and WUP- FIN models which corresponds to taking advantage of the respective strengths of the models: SWAT/IQQM will be used to simulate basin hydrology for all five zones. However, unlike Choice 1 VMOD will be used to simulate water quality in zones 1 to 3. isis will be used to simulate hydrodynamics for all five zones, and sediment transport for zones 1 to 3. The results from isis at the confluence node Phnom Penh where zones 3 and 4 are connected will be taken as boundary conditions and input for the 2/3D EIA model to model hydrodynamics, sediment, and water quality in zones 4 and 5 in more detail. Dams will be simulated the same way as in Possible choice 1

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24 Possible choice 3: MRC DSF (Supplemented by DHI Models) This is evaluated to be suitable choice. This will focus on using the core DSF as the main model. The WUP-FIN model will be used to fill the gap on water quality and if needed, 3D model. SWAT and IQQM will be used to simulate basin hydrology for all five zones (except zone 5 in Delta: IQQM will be used to calculate the water demand only) and water quality in zones 1 to 3. isis or Mike will be used to simulate hydrodynamics for zones 4 and 5. The ISIS for zone 1-3 only use for the MeKong mainstream, and sediment transport for zones 1 to 3. The results from isis in zones 3, and 4 area connected will be taken as boundary conditions and input for the 2/3D Mike model to model hydrodynamics, sediment, and water quality in zones 4 and 5 in more detail. Dam operation will be simulated using IQQM. The simulated runoff / reservoir storage and reservoir inflow will provide flow boundary conditions for the 2/3D Mike model to simulate sedimentation and water quality in the artificial reservoirs.

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26 COMPARISION

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28 Model Configuration Options Criteria Possible Possible Possible choice 1 choice 2 choice 3 1 Council Study requirements 1.1 Data or model output requirements of the DRIFT DSS are met Yes Yes Yes 1.2 Compatibility with Council Study schedule No No No 2 Setup of modeling baseline and model workflows 2.1 Estimated level of effort for setup/update/recalibration of models for baseline (assumption: baseline 2007) 5 months 7 months 5 months 2.2 Anticipated schedule for setup/update/recalibration of models for baseline Feb Jul Jan Jul Feb Jul Estimated cost to model baseline 130,000 USD 150,000 USD 150,000 USD 2.4 Estimated cost for additional required data 20,000 USD 25,000 USD 20,000 USD 2.5 Estimated cost for implementing interfaces between models 2.6 Anticipated time required to build internal capacity to setup and run selected model configuration option 15,000 USD 20,000 USD 15,000 USD 2 months 2 months 2 months 2.7 Required computing power 4 high performance PCs 4 high performance PCs 4 high performance PCs 3 Anticipated level of effort for scenario Modeling (per thematic scenario) 3.1 Management of modeling tasks 1.5 days 1.5 days 1.5 days 3.2 Model setup 5 days 5 days 5 days 3.3 Model run 4 days 4 days 4 days 3.4 Quality assurance / consistancy checks of model results 2.5 days 2.5 days 2.5 days 3.5 Write up modeling results (reporting) 2.5 days 2.5 days 2.5 days

29 With three model configuration choices based on several criteria related to cost, time, and internal capacity. It shows that the cost and time required to setup and run the baseline vary with the option but not when modeling the thematic scenarios. Based on this, it shows that Possible choice 1 is the best option. In addition, this option maximizes the use of SWAT, IQQM and isis which are both MRC DSF approved models. It should be noted that each option requires technical support from the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Center of Finland Ltd. in deploying the WUP-FIN models for the Council Study and this includes ensuring that the WUP-FIN models have the required functional capabilities.

30 Modelling Work Flow and Implementation Plan

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36 I. Status of MT: 1. New Lao Modeller will only join from 01 May Cambodian Modeller: Take leave 01 Mar 01 July Thailand Modeller contract will be ended on 15 Feb Head MT contract will be ended on 09 May Only the Cambodian Associate Modeller: Will end on Jun (No plan from IKMP) II. Resources Request: 1. International Technical Advisor (01) 2. The National Modeller (04) 3. The Assistant Modeller (04) II. Finance Request: 1. DHI/ISIS license (01 for each Module) 2. Speed Computer (04)

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