Hydrological Products

Transcription

1 Segment 2: Hydrological Products Maria-Helena Ramos Irstea, Antony (Paris), France Geneva, 7-9 May 2018

2 2 Hydrological value chain Users & Decision-makers Earth System Observations & Modelling 2017 EUMETSAT Photos: MHR

3 3 Hydrological value chain PRODUCTS 2017 EUMETSAT Photos: MHR

4 4 Water-related challenges HLPW (2018)

5 5 Water-related challenges What products can we have? (given our knowledge, science, technology, operational settings, etc.)

6 6 Six Partners Initiatives in Segment 2 Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM) International Flood Initiative (IFI) The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) WMO Hydrological Status and Outlook System (HydroSOS) Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) Flow Regimes from International Experimental and Network Data (FRIEND-Water) Forecasting Floods Droughts Risk management Data and resources analysis KNOWLEDGE

7 7 Knowledge Initiatives Simulation of hydrological processes Forecasting hydrological extremes Water management in a changing environment APFM IFI GloFAS Hydro SOS IDMP FRIEND -Water

8 8 Knowledge Initiatives Simulation of hydrological processes Physical realism? Irstea Photos: MHR

9 9 Knowledge Initiatives Simulation of hydrological processes Data Processing Products Models understanding hydrologic processes and representing them in our models using hydrologic observations available for model setup and validation (or dealing with the lack of it) representing subgrid-scale heterogeneities and a changing environment benchmarking competing modelling approaches

10 10 Knowledge Initiatives Simulation of hydrological processes Data Processing FRIEND -Water Modeling advances have been made [with] models of different type and complexity, Products Models [ ] more effectively use our diversity of modeling approaches to advance our collective quest for physically realistic hydrologic models. Hydro SOS Clark et al. (2015), Improving the representation of hydrologic processes in Earth System Models, doi.org/ /2015wr Clark et al. (2017), The evolution of process-based hydrologic models: historical challenges and the collective quest for physical realism, doi.org/ /hess

11 11 Knowledge Initiatives Forecasting hydrological extremes From skillful predictions to forecasting impacts? Photos: MHR

12 12 Knowledge Initiatives Forecasting hydrological extremes Products Users Value Translating forecast quality into value Limits of predictability Linking global model outputs to local models and expertise (real time) Data access, ownership, responsibilities and institutional arrangements Expertise and spatial interdependencies in risk management

13 13 Knowledge Initiatives Forecasting hydrological extremes GloFAS Products Value Weather models are run for the whole world [but] hydrology models are terribly local Hydro SOS IFI Users [ ] generally there s a gulf in skill between global and local models APFM T. Pagano in response to HEPEX blog post by M.H. Ramos: Going commercial in hydrological forecasting. Posted on September 16, IDMP

14 14 Knowledge Initiatives Water management in a changing environment Water security and sharing? Source: California Department of Water Resources. Climate Change in California Fact Sheet

15 15 Knowledge Initiatives Water management in a changing environment Users Decisionmaking Directions of change Global to local: transferability of best practices and implementation of specific instruments (market, insurance) IFI APFM IDMP Policy Inclusiveness and feedback loops

16 16 Partners Initiatives in Segment 2 Hydrological service for prosperity Data Processing Products Users Models Value Decisionmaking Products Users Policy

17 17 Six Partners initiatives in Segment 2 Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM) International Flood Initiative (IFI) The Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) WMO Hydrological Status and Outlook System (HydroSOS) Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) Flow Regimes from International Experimental and Network Data (FRIEND-Water) - Incorporate existing knowledge? - Contribute to knowledge gaps?

18 18 Improvements, gaps, articulations Articulation between initiatives Early warning systems GloFAS Hydro SOS Socio-economic benefits Pilot projects IFI Stakeholder, user involvement Monitoring Response APFM IDMP FRIEND -Water Training, Workshop, Guidance And maybe more

19 19 Articulation between initiatives Funding co-operation projects Attention not to kill local hydrology: openness and flexibility to incorporate local research and innovation efforts Co-designing and co-building global systems: compatibility with current participatory methods Gaining local (managers/public) confidence: avoiding excessive solicitation, fostering transparency and linkages between initiatives

20 20 Improvements, gaps, articulations Articulation between initiatives Synergies with other communities o DRMKC o IAHS, EGU, AGU o HEPEX Photos: MHRamos

21 Synergies with communities of practice HEPEX, Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment: Unfunded, volunteer effort since 2004! 21 Workshops Blog Portal

22 22 Over 500 members in its mailing list F r o m a n E x p e r i m e n t t o E x c h a n g e s to st HEPEX workshop organized by ECMWF, US NWS and EC 7 th HEPEX workshop Melbourne (CSIRO, BoM, U. Melb.)

23 23 HEPEX pillars of success People: from operational, research, agencies settings Context: Scientific: medium-range meteorological ensemble prediction since 90s Operational: long-range prediction based on scenarios in the water supply / hydropower sectors since 80s People Goal Context Goal: specific, achievable and actionable

24 24 HEPEX Goal to foster the development and demonstrate the added value of hydrological ensemble predictions for operational water resources management, risk assessment and emergency management to make decisions that have important consequences for economy, public health and safety. Transdisciplinary Impact-based An integrative view of the hydrological forecasting system, with the community acting as a facilitator to exchange ideas, data, methods and experiences

25 Added value to initiatives at WMO 25 Wider operational adoption of probabilistic and ensemble techniques in operational services and for different applications Increased awareness of the added value of reliable probabilistic information to make decisions Photo: MHR Photo: C. Vrignard

26 Added value to initiatives at WMO 26 Forecasting Science Operational Forecasting Forecast-based decision-making Policy-making 2018 HEPEX Survey

27 Added value to initiatives at WMO 27 Flood inundation mapping Data assimilation 2018 HEPEX Survey Statistical postprocessing, bias correction Verification of forecast quality Evaluation of economic value

28 28 Improvements, gaps, articulations Articulation between initiatives Synergies with other communities Exploring capacity building to use AND produce hydrological products

29 29 Exploring capacity building Modern information technologies o o Crowdsourced data Rapid needs assessment in disaster operations Photos: MHR

30 30 Exploring capacity building Modern information technologies Awareness and confidence o o Local/regional knowledge purveyors Games and learning tools If you are the owner of Given a forecast, make your decision: a) Do nothing b) Raise flood defences c) Move inventory The Shopkeepers Dilemma. A HEPEX game by M. Werner et al. (2016)

31 31 Exploring capacity building Modern information technologies Awareness and confidence Creating an enabling policy and institutional environment, as well as opportunities for (positive) feedback loops

32 32 Summary Progress with accumulation of scientific knowledge More powerful data analysis techniques, more sophisticated equipment / computational power for simulations, modelling scenarios Engagement of society and stakeholders, dialogue with policy makers How to network effectively?

33 Segment 2: Thank you! Hydrological Products Maria-Helena Ramos How to network effectively? Irstea, Antony (Paris), France Geneva, 7-9 May 2018