OCTOBER 20, 2017 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE

Transcription

1 OCTOBER 20, 2017 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE

2 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 2 UTILITY INDUSTRY TRENDS FLAT OR DECLINING ELECTRIC SALES DUE TO GREATER ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND PV SOLAR RAPIDLY DECLINING COST OF CLEAN ENERGY & BATTERY STORAGE WITH INNOVATION & ECONOMIES OF SCALE ILLUSTRATION BY RUTGER PAULUSSE

3 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 3 CONSUMERS USING LESS ELECTRICITY NATIONWIDE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION REMAINS FLAT EVEN AS AMERICANS BUILT LARGER HOMES, CONSTRUCTED NEW COMMERCIAL BUILDING SPACE, BUILT NEW INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE, [RAN] MORE HEAT AND AIR CONDITIONING, AND SPENT MORE TIME IN FRONT OF LARGE, BRIGHT SCREENS. ENERGY EFFICIENT APPLIANCES DR. COREY TYREE, PH.D - DIRECTOR OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT - ENERGY INSTITUTE OF ALABAMA ROOFTOP SOLAR ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

4 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 4 LONG ISLAND S PEAK LOAD FORECAST SHOWS DRAMATIC REDUCTIONS FORECAST NEED FOR POWER PLANTS IN 2030 HAS DECLINED BY 1,700MW OR (24%) ENERGY EFFICIENCY & ROOFTOP SOLAR WILL REDUCE LOAD BY 950MW THROUGH 2030

5 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 5 COST OF CLEAN ENERGY RAPIDLY DECLINING BLOOMBERG S NEW ENERGY OUTLOOK - JUNE 2017 BY 2023 ONSHORE WIND & SOLAR ARE COMPETITIVE WITH NEW-BUILD GAS PLANTS OFF-SHORE WIND: PROJECTED COST DECLINE 71% BY 2040 SOLAR: PROJECTED COST DECLINE OF 66% BY 2040 BATTERY STORAGE: PROJECTED COST DECLINE OF 70% BY 2030 ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION

6 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 6 OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN COST EUROPEAN MARKETS SHOW STEADY DECLINE IN THE PRICE OF OFF-SHORE WIND US PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DOWNWARD TREND DUE TO DECLINING TECHNOLOGY COSTS AND GROWING SCALE SOURCE: NYSERDA

7 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 7 OFF-SHORE WIND IN THE UNITED STATES SCALE & COMPETITION WILL DEVELOP THE INDUSTRY AND REDUCE COST DEVELOPMENTS SINCE BLOCK ISLAND WIND FARM OPERATIONAL - LIPA S SOUTH FORK WIND FARM APPROVED - NEW YORK 2,400MW OSW GOAL - NYSERDA S OSW MASTER PLAN TO DEVELOP 2,400 MW - MARYLAND APPROVES 375MW OSW - VIRGINIA APPROVES 16MW DEMO-PROJECT - MASSACHUSETTS DONG ENERGY & OFFSHORE MW SITE ASSESSMENT PLANS APPROVED - MASSACHUSETTS ISSUES 1,600MW RFP - NEW JERSEY LEASES EXECUTED - NEW YORK STATOIL LEASE AWARDED - ADDITIONAL LEASES REQUESTED BY PNE WIND

8 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 8 NEW YORK CLIMATE GOALS 50 X MILLION MASTER PLAN 50% OF ELECTRICITY GENERATED IN NEW YORK TO COME FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES BY 2030 NEW YORK AIMS TO DEVELOP 2.4 GIGAWATTS OF OFFSHORE WIND BY ENOUGH TO POWER 1.25 MILLION HOMES NYSERDA TO COMPLETE A MASTER PLAN TO DEVELOP 2,400 MW OF OFF-SHORE WIND OF LONG ISLAND S COAST

9 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 9 LIPA CLIMATE GOALS 350, MW RESEARCH PARTNERSHIP NEW YORK S CES ADDS 800MW OF CLEAN POWER ON LONG ISLAND BY ENOUGH TO POWER 350,000 HOMES ROOFTOP SOLAR & ENERGY EFFICIENCY EXPECTED TO LOWER ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY 950MW LIPA TO STUDY GENERATION AND TRANSMISSION NEEDS ON LONG ISLAND TO SUPPORT STATE S 2,400 MW OSW GOAL LIPA SIGNED MOU WITH NYSERDA TO ACHIEVE ECONOMIES OF SCALE IN OFF-SHORE WIND & BENEFITS TO STATE

10 LIPA SELECTS 210MW TO POWER 150,000 HOMES WITH CLEAN ENERGY IN NEW YORK S FIRST OFF-SHORE WIND FARM (90 MW) & BATTERY STORAGE (10 MW) OPERATIONAL: 2022 LOCATIONS: 30 MILES SOUTH-EAST OF MONTAUK AVERAGE MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL BILL OF SOUTH FORK WIND: $1.19 / MONTH 2 UTILITY SCALE SOLAR PROJECTS (60 MW) OPERATIONAL: 12/31/2020 LOCATION: CALVERTON, TOWN OF RIVERHEAD AVERAGE MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL BILL IMPACT: 40 CENTS / MONTH 31 COMMERCIAL ROOFTOP SOLAR PROJECTS (20 MW) OPERATIONAL: 2018 LOCATIONS: THROUGHOUT LONG ISLAND AVERAGE MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL BILL IMPACT: 12 CENTS / MONTH 3 FUEL CELL PROJECTS (40 MW) DEFERS FOUR COSTLY TRANSMISSION PROJECTS FOR YEARS OPERATIONAL: 2018 LOCATIONS: YAPHANK AVERAGE MONTHLY RESIDENTIAL BILL IMPACT: $1.13 / MONTH

11 REFORMING THE ENERGY VISION ON LONG ISLAND 11 REV CASE STUDY: SOUTH FORK LEAST COST OPTION TO MEET INCREASING ELECTRICITY DEMAND ON THE SOUTH FORK WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MEETING NY & LIPA S CLEAN ENERGY GOALS OFF-SHORE WIND BATTERY STORAGE DEMAND RESPONSE RIGHT SIZE AT RIGHT LOCATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP THE FEDERAL OFFSHORE WIND LEASE AREA GROUNDWORK FOR OFF-SHORE WIND INDUSTRY CHARGES BY DRAWING ENERGY FROM GRID AND PROVIDES UP TO 8 HOURS OF PEAK POWER BALANCES INTERMITTENCY FROM WIND FARM DEMAND RESPONSE ALLOWS THE UTILITY TO MAKE MINOR, SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO REDUCE POWER DURING PERIODS OF HIGH DEMAND

12 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 12 SOURCES OF ELECTRICITY TO POWER LONG ISLAND THREE LARGE LEGACY GENERATION PLANTS (PSA STEAM UNITS) REPRESENT 40% OF LIPA S MAXIMUM ELECTRIC PRODUCTION CAPABILITY WHILE ONLY GENERATING 21% OF ITS ENERGY

13 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 13 LIPA HAS SURPLUS GENERATION THROUGH 2035 WITH FLAT LOAD GROWTH AND THE ADDITION OF RENEWABLE GENERATION, LIPA HAS EXCESS GENERATION THROUGH % OF LIPA S GENERATION CONTRACTS ARE UP FOR RENEWAL BY 2030

14 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 14 RUN-TIME OF STEAM PLANTS FORECAST TO DECLINE RENEWABLES REDUCE USAGE & EMISSIONS OF FOSSIL FUEL PLANTS

15 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 15 CUSTOMERS USING LESS ELECTRICITY + A GROWING BASE OF RENEWABLES = DECREASE RUN-TIME OF LONG ISLAND S OLD STEAM PLANTS & NEED TO STUDY LIPA S PEAKING GENERATION

16 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 16 NEW GENERATION FLEET FOR LI S FUTURE ENERGY GRID MODERN PEAKING UNITS, BATTERIES & DEMAND RESPONSE PROVIDE MORE FLEXIBLE RESOURCES AND SUPPORT RENEWABLES NEW POWER PLANTS ON LONG ISLAND WILL BE SMALLER, MORE FLEXIBLE & MORE DISTRIBUTED

17 LONG ISLAND S ENERGY FUTURE 17 GOING BEYOND PLAIN OLD ELECTRIC SERVICE CUSTOMERS WILL WANT TO USE TECHNOLOGY THAT MONITORS AND CONTROLS THEIR ENERGY USAGE. THEY LL WANT SIRI AND ALEXA TO PAY THEIR BILLS. THEY LL INVEST IN THEIR OWN ON-SITE POWER AND STORAGE FACILITIES SO THEY NEVER HAVE TOE EXPERIENCE AN OUTAGE. SUE KELLY, PRESIDENT & CEO, AMERICAN PUBLIC POWER ASSOCIATION, OCTOBER 2017 LONG ISLAND WELCOMES SMART METERS COMING SOON TO A UTILITY NEAR YOU ACCURATE BILLS FASTER OUTAGE DETECTION AUTOMATIC HIGH-BILL ALERTS ONLINE PORTAL TO VIEW ENERGY USE NEW PRICING OPTIONS BETTER GRID MANAGEMENT ELECTRIC VEHICLE INTEGRATION MOBILE BATTERY STORAGE ONLINE PORTAL TO SELECT NEW PRICING OPTIONS

18 QUESTION & ANSWER 18