2007 PWP Integrated Resource Plan. April 17, 2007

Transcription

1 2007 PWP Integrated Resource Plan April 17,

2 Planning Objectives Reliable Power Competitive Power Rates Stable Power Rates Environmentally Responsible 2

3 Planning Objectives Reliable and Dependable Electricity Supply Diversified Energy Resources Local and Regional Generation Long Term Contracts Energy Efficiency & Demand Management Renewable Resources Transmission CAISO STS, DC Intertie Pasadena s Local Power Plant Distribution System 20-year Master Plan 3

4 Competitive Power Rates Planning Objectives Long Term Contracts (IPP, PV, Hoover, BPA, Magnolia) Natural Gas Reserves and Forward Contracts Cost Effective Use of Natural Gas Partnerships (CAISO, SCPPA, CMUA, Customers/Ratepayers) Stable Power Rates Commodity Diversification Coal (IPP), Nuclear (PV), Hydro (Hoover) Natural Gas (Local Generation, Magnolia) Renewables Geographic Diversification Local Gen, PNW, PSW, Utah Hedging Forward Contracts, Price Caps 4

5 Planning Objectives Environmentally Responsible Responsible Leadership Renewable Portfolio Standard Hydro, Wind, Geothermal, Landfill Gas, Solar, Others Energy Efficiency and Demand Side Management Public Outreach Rebates Energy Audits Emissions Controls Minimize Environmental Impact Retrofit Emissions Reductions for Older Units Repowering Older Units 5

6 Planning Objectives Resource Adequacy PWP planning reserves were established in the 2001 IRP: Resource capacity reserves at least 15% of peak demand; Minimum of 150MW installed local generation capacity; AB380 requires POU to establish plans to meet peak demand, planning reserves, and operating reserves; CAISO requires all member utilities to provide local generating capacity based on the utility s peak demand (approximately 35-45% of peak demand). 6

7 PWP Generation and Transmission Resources Bonneville Power Admin (Columbia River Hydro) [27] UPC Wind** [5] High Winds [6] (45) Gonder (113) (15) (76) Intermountain Coal [93]* *Summer capacity w/recall. Mona Magnolia [18] Burbank Pasadena Generation [MW] Transmission Substation Sylmar (Transmission Line Capacity, MW) (136) Adelanto (25) Cal ISO/SCE (200) (26) Victorville Local Gas Gen Pasadena [200] (15) (70) (51) Market Place Mc Cullough Azusa Hydro [15] (60) (26) (33) Mead Westwing Geothermal [2] Land Fill Gas [9] Land Fill Gas [6.5]** Hoover Hydro [20] Palo Verde Nuclear [10] **Contracts approved but projects not yet developed 7

8 PWP Resource Mix FY 2006 Actual 6% Energy for PWP Load by Fuel Type 17% Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Market Purchase Renewables* *Includes Hoover Hydro-electric 9% 5% 63% 8

9 Forecast Load and Resource Capacity Plan Capacity & Requirements (MW) IPP & PV Other Contracts Renewables Broadway Gas Turbines New Units Required Capacity Peak Demand 9

10 Power Rate Structure PWP Power Rate is based on three components Power Production Cost Transmission charges to delivery external power to Pasadena Distribution charges to support Pasadena service area Distribution 4 /kwh Power Production Cost 7 /kwh Transmission 1 /kwh Total = 12 /kwh Resource Plan Impacts the Energy Charge 10

11 Challenges Renewable Resources Availability, Characteristics, Connectivity To Pasadena & Cost Regulatory FERC, CAISO, CEC, US EPA, Cal EPA, SCAQMD, CPUC City/PWP Environmental Initiatives United Nations Urban Environmental Accord; US Mayors Climate Protection Agreement; Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) Legislative & Regulatory Concerns Moving target: SB1, SB107, SB1368, AB32, AB2021 Long term policy direction; Different regulatory requirements: Fed Vs. State Vs. Local; Impact on current contracts and resources; Cost of energy components: Power, RECs, Emissions (GHG, SO2, NOx..) 11

12 Challenges Renewable Energy Resource Cost cents/kwh Considerations Wind Concentrated Solar Photovoltaic Solar /kwh Intermittent resource, regulation requirement, limited geographic areas, generally requires transmission, proven and scalable technology 12.5 /kwh More consistent than wind but intermittent, large area requirement, high cost, technology improving 20.0 /kwh Distributed generation, customer supported, cost Geothermal Biomass 6.5 /kwh 6.5 /kwh Limited geographic areas, generally requires transmission, excellent base load resource Small projects, excellent base load resource Natural Gas (for comparison purpose) 5.5 /kwh Flexibility in sites, available commodity, proven and scalable technology, highly volatile commodity market 12

13 Challenges Coal Pasadena currently depends on coal to supply 60% of its load through its Intermountain Power Project (IPP) entitlement; Provides stable, low-cost energy supply Legal/contractual issues: SB1368 and AB32 Pasadena s Southern Transmission System entitlement tied to participation in IPP participation. Natural Gas 14 Natural Gas - California Volatility LNG Price ($/MMBtu) Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Year Source: Energy Information Administration 13

14 Major Recommendations IRP Recommendations Re-power Approximately 110 MW of local generation to replace aging units GT-1, GT-2 and B-3; Increase the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) goals; Increase funding for energy efficiency and demand side management; Investigate Intermountain Power Project divestiture and/or carbon removal strategies; and Formalize Resource Adequacy Policy: 15% planning reserve margin and 200MW of local generation capacity Each will require future City Council action! 14

15 Local Generation Repowering Decreased cost through higher efficiency and lower air emissions; Legislation and regulations (SB1368, AB32); Reduces environmental footprint per MW; Increased reliability and stability in rates; Potential increased revenue under CAISO proposed MRTU (Locational pricing and local resource requirements); Greater flexibility in energy portfolio; and Better risk management by diversified energy product mix 15

16 Cost Comparisons $1,000 Resource Options Costs Comparison Net Present Value ($ Millions) $950 $900 $850 $800 $750 Approx. ½ /kwh $700 As-Is LM6000 Simple Cycle LM6000 Combined Cycle Resource Option LMS100 Combined Cycle Internal Combusion Engine Enhanced RPS* (+LMS CC) * Enhanced RPS excludes Hoover energy 16

17 Increase RPS Goals Urban Accords Goal: 10% renewable supply by 2012 Align with State standard excluding large hydro Increase Pasadena s RPS goals: From 10% to 15% by 2010 (including Hoover, 4.1%) From 20% including Hoover to 20% excluding Hoover by 2017 Work toward meeting same goals as mandated for IOUs, considering rate and reliability impacts. 17

18 Forecast RPS Progress Percent of Retail Sales 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Large Hydro Landfill Gas Geothermal Wind Small Hydro PWP Renewable Resources* * Excludes short-term purchases Fiscal Year (Ending June 30) 18

19 Increase Energy Efficiency and Demand Side Management Urban Accords Goal: Reduce peak demand 10% by 2012 AB-2021 loading order requires consideration of energy efficiency and demand side management programs first; Reduced load results in reduced ancillary services and Resource Adequacy (AB380) requirements. Average Lifecycle Energy Cost ( /kwh) EE* Coal Gas Wind EE* Coal Gas Wind * Average life cycle cost of PWP s FY2006 EE programs 19

20 Cumulative Energy Savings from Efficiency 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% EE Fcst 06> Actual EE Actual EE Actual EE <94 2% 0% % of Net Load Fiscal Year

21 Action Plan Staff anticipates bringing forward specific recommendations to the City Council: Adopt the IRP In Concept (June 2007) Adopt energy efficiency goals (June-Aug 2007) Adopt funding mechanism for enhanced environmental programs, including SB-1 compliant PV (July-Sept 2007) Adopt more aggressive RPS (Sept-Dec 2007) Approve repowering plan for B3, GT1, GT2 (6-18 months) Adopt formalized Resource Adequacy Policy (TBD) Evaluate and address IPP issues (TBD) 21

22 Questions/Comments? For further information: Gurcharan S. Bawa Acting Director of Power Supply Steven K. Endo Energy Resource Planning Manager