Extreme weather events limiting their impact on big cities

Transcription

1 Extreme weather events limiting their impact on big cities Mammarella Maria Cristina Senior Scientist at (Italian National Agency for New technologies, Energy and the Environment) RESEARCH GROUP ON AIR QUALITY AND METEOROLOGY

2 A RESEARCH GROUP ON AIR QUALITY AND METEOROLOGY with me: Giovanni Grandoni and Pasquale Fedele

3 My talk is about the.. EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS ON The BIG CITIES LOCAL SCENARIO

4 EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS Caused by CLIMATE CHANGE Depends on GLOBAL WARMING Principally caused by GREENHOUSE GAS GLOBAL SCENARIO

5 GREENHOUSE GAS The major greenhouse gases responsible for the greenhouse effect and the subject of the Kyoto Protocol, which entered into force in 2005 are: Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) 60%, nitrogen dioxide (N 2 O), methane (CH 4 ) 20% and three groups of fluorinated gases (Sulfur hexafluoride,hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs), and Perfluorocarbon (PFCs)) Also water vapour effects the warming of the Earth s surface and lower atmosphere.

6 On the arrival of.. EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS What happens? ON THE BIG CITIES LOCAL SCENARIO

7 The big cities are sensitive areas because they have a high density of population heat waves When the heat waves (extreme weather event) arrive, what happens in the big cities (local scale)?

8 Each city has its own particular reaction under the stress of extreme weather events. heat waves GLOBAL SCENARIO LOCAL SCENARIO GLOBAL SCENARIO heat waves OVERLAP LOCAL SCENARIO EXTREME WEATHER EVENT ON THE CITY

9 The EXTREME WEATER EVENTS (the heat waves) are different in the LOCAL SCENARIO from the GLOBAL SCENARIO heat waves heat waves GLOBAL SCENARIO LOCAL SCENARIO

10 The main parameters present in the CITY (LOCAL SCENARIO) are: MAIN POLLUTANTS : MICRO-METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS: -Ozone (O 3 ) -Dust particles (PM10, PM2.5) - Nitrogen Dioxide (NO 2 ) - Carbon Monoxide (CO) -Sulphor Dioxide (SO 2 ) -Benzene (C 6 H 6 ) -Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) -etc. -Temperature -Relative Humidity -Wind and Direction of Wind -Pressure -Precipitation -Solar Radiation -PBL (Planetary Boundary Layer) Height -PBL (Planetary Boundary Layer) Height LOCAL SCENARIO

11 PBL It is an invisible layer of the atmosphere that extends from the ground level upwards with a variable height from a few hundred meters up to 2 kilometers. If the height of the PBL is low, that is low on the city, the pollution dispersion is blocked therefore the concentrations of the pollutants in the air increase. With the same emission of pollutants in the air The concentration of the pollutants increases when the PBL height is low The effect is like an INVISIBLE COVER on the city LOCAL SCENARIO

12 The PBL height is a very important meteorological parameter typical of the LOCAL SCENARIO and improving the knowledge of the PBL depth is very important for a variety of practical uses. Knowing the PBL height is important for studying and predicting: - air pollutant concentrations - flight safety problems - communications security problems. LOCAL SCENARIO

13 Example of PBL Height from the ground level

14 What are the possible policies and activities we can implement to limit the effects of extreme weather events in the global and local scenario?

15 heat waves How do we mitigate or prevent the effects of extreme weather events? GLOBAL SCENARIO The commitments of the Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement on Climate Change signed in Kyoto on 11 December 1997 by more than 160 countries. The agreement obliges industrialized Nations to reduce the emissions of the pollutants (Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrogen dioxide (N 2 O), sulfur Hexafluoride, Hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs) and Perfluorocarbon (PFCs)) to at least 5.2% less than the emissions recorded in considered the start year in the period

16 Kyoto Protocol Map green - Nations included in the Kyoto Protocol red - Nations included in the Kyoto Protocol but have not ratified it grey - Nations not included in the Kyoto Protocol yellow- Nations included in the Kyoto Protocol and hope to ratify it China/India/other developing countries not included in any limitation, they were not the main contributors to the greenhouse gas during the industrialization period

17 heat waves How do we mitigate or prevent the effects of extreme weather events? LOCAL SCENARIO Predict local weather and pollution data in the city To mitigate pollution short/long term solution Organise in the city preventive actions To alert hospitals and emergency wards

18 To predict weather and pollution data in the city LOCAL SCENARIO Is our main research activity pollution meteorology to air quality

19 To predict weather and pollution data in the city A complex system using NEURAL NETWORKS which also takes into account the PBL height PREDICTS the meteorological data and air pollution concentration in the city at 24,48,72 hours in advance

20 We are working in collaboration with On a reaserch project using the neural networks to predict critical extreme environmental events in order to prealert sanitary structures/emergency wards to take preventive action in reference to children suffering from asthma

21 This paper was produced for a meeting organized by Health & Consumer Protection DG and represents the views of its author on the subject. These views have not been adopted or in any way approved by the Commission and should not be relied upon as a statement of the Commission's or Health & Consumer Protection DG's views. The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper, nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof.