TPAC STAFF REPORT. California Coastal Commission Draft Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance. MEETING DATE: February 6, 2014 AGENDA ITEM: 7

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1 TPAC STAFF REPORT SUBJECT: California Coastal Commission Draft Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance MEETING DATE: February 6, 2014 AGENDA ITEM: 7 STAFF CONTACT: Brian Bresolin, Peter Imhof RECOMMENDATION: Review and discuss issues related to the California Coastal Commission draft Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance and options for comment. SUMMARY: California Coastal Commission staff has published a draft Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance document to provide a framework for addressing sea-level rise in Local Coastal Programs and Coastal Development Permits. Coastal Commission staff has concluded that many potential impacts of sea-level rise concern the Coastal Commission s planning and regulatory responsibilities under the Coastal Act. The comment period has been extended to close of business on February 14, The draft will be considered for formal endorsement by the Coastal Commission in the spring of This guidance document is part of a larger statewide strategy to respond to climate change. As requested by TPAC in January, this staff report provides an overview of the draft Coastal Commission Guidance document as it relates to Local Coastal Programs and the coastal permit process and lists resources that can be used in updating LCPs and permitting coastal projects in light of the Coastal Commission guidance. It also provides an opportunity for TPAC to discuss the implications of the Coastal Commission guidance document for coastal land use regulation and permitting and lists some options and some relevant considerations for comment. DISCUSSION: Governor Brown and concerned experts have issued a call to action on climate change, including planning for the impacts of global sea-level rise. In response, the California Coastal Commission has released the draft proposed Sea-Level Rise Guidance for California s coastal communities that can be found at the following website: It will be considered for formal endorsement by the Coastal Commission in the spring. This guidance document is part of a larger statewide strategy to respond to climate change. The State of California is working on a number of important initiatives both to reduce emission of greenhouse gases and to mitigate the impacts of a changing climate to California. The Coastal Commission guidance is being coordinated with many of these other initiatives, including the 2013 update to the 2009 California Adaptation Strategy, 2013 update to the General Plan Guidelines, 2013 update to the California Office of Emergency Services State Hazard Mitigation Plan and a number of other plans and programs from the California State Coastal Conservancy,

2 CalTrans, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Department of Boating and Waterways, etc., that also affect land use development patterns and the reduction of long-term risk exposure to coastal hazards. Given current trends in greenhouse gas emissions, sea levels are expected to rise at an accelerating rate in the future, and scientists project an increase in California s sea level of up to 61 centimeters (24 inches) by 2050 and 167 centimeters (65.7 inches) by 2100, relative to year Until mid-century, the most damaging events for the California coast will likely be dominated by large El Niño-driven storms in combination with high tides and large waves. Eventually, sea level will rise enough that even small storms will cause significant damage, and large events will have unprecedented consequences. 2 Coastal Commission staff has concluded that many of the potential impacts of sea-level rise directly concern the Coastal Commission s planning and regulatory responsibilities under the Coastal Act. The Coastal Act mandates that the Commission protect public access to the coast, open space, coastal habitats, and other sensitive resources, as well as provide for priority visitor-serving and coastal-dependent or related development while minimizing the risks of coastal hazards. Sea-level rise increases the risk of flooding, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies, which have the potential to threaten many coastal resources, including coastal development, coastal access and recreation, habitats, and coastal agricultural lands, among others. In addition, many possible responses to sea-level rise, such as construction of barriers or shoreline armoring, can themselves have adverse impacts on coastal resources. The Coastal Commission guidance document does not purport to directly regulate the actions that the Commission or local governments must take under the Coastal Act. Any planning or regulatory action that the Commission or local governments may take is subject to the applicable requirements of the Coastal Act, the federal Coastal Zone Management Act, certified Local Coastal Programs, and other applicable laws and regulations as applied in the context of that action. Once a LCP s certification becomes effective, the local government becomes responsible for reviewing most Coastal Development Permit (CDP) applications within the local government s jurisdiction. However, the Commission retains permitting authority over some lands (for example, over tidelands, submerged lands, and public trust lands) and authority to review certain categories of coastal development permits on appeal. According to the Coastal Commission s draft guidance, LCPs are essential to fully implementing sea-level rise adaptation efforts. 3 As many LCPs were certified in the 1980s and 1990s, it is important that future LCP amendments consider sea-level rise and adaptation planning at the project and community level, as appropriate. The California Climate Adaptation Strategy (2009) specifically identifies LCPs as a mechanism for adaptation planning along the California coast. The City of Goleta is the remaining Santa Barbara County jurisdiction that does not have a certified LCP. 1 National Research Council. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, Caldwell, M. & Segall, C. (2007). No day at the beach: Sea level rise, ecosystem loss, and public access along the California coast. Ecology Law Quarterly, (34) California Coastal Commission, Draft Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance, October 14, 2013, p. 3. 2

3 Status of LCP CCC Certification as of November 2013 Jurisdiction Year of Certification County of Santa Barbara 1982 Channel Islands Deferred certification (1) City of Guadalupe 1991 City of Goleta City of Santa Barbara City segment 1986 Airport segment 1991 City of Carpinteria 1982 (1). Area of Deferred Certification (ADC): a geographic area that has not been officially segmented for purposes of LCP preparation and during certification review of the LCP, was not certified. The Commission retains permit authority until an LCP is effectively certified for the area. There are significant funding constraints at both the Commission and local government levels that limit LCP amendments. To help address this issue, the Ocean Protection Council has approved $2.5 million in grant funds for local governments to update LCPs to address sea-level rise. In addition, Governor Brown and California Legislature approved an augmentation of $4 million to the fiscal year budget of the Coastal Commission ($3 million for state operations and $1 million for grants to local governments) for local governments and the Coastal Commission to prepare, update, amend, and review LCPs with an emphasis on climate change issues. The two grant programs available specifically for LCP updates include: 1. The Coastal Commission s LCP Planning Grant Program a first round of $1 million was just awarded on Jan 8 th to 11 jurisdictions. A second round of $1 million is available, and the grant application will be announced in early spring. Funding is for certification or update of LCPs, with special emphasis on climate change. More information is available here: 2. The Ocean Protection Council, in partnership with the Coastal Commission and State Coastal Conservancy, has a grant program for local jurisdictions to update LCPs to address sea-level rise. The second round of grant funding will also likely be announced in early spring. More information is here: The California Coastal Commission considered requests from 28 cities and approved $1 million worth of LCP Planning Grants to 11 cities. The City of Goleta received a $125,000 grant from the Coastal Commission for the preparation of the City's first LCP. According to City staff, the project to develop the plan is expected to begin in May The City of Santa Barbara was also awarded a grant to update its LCP in the amount of $123,000. LCP grant funds will be administered over a two-year period. A list of jurisdictions that were awarded LCP Planning grants is available in the LCP grants staff report, which was adopted per staff recommendation by the Coastal Commission on Jan 8, 2014: 3

4 Local Coastal Program Update Process According to Chapter 4 of the Draft Coastal Commission Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance document, the first step in a LCP update is to determine the range of sea-level rise projections relevant to the LCP planning area. The National Research Council (NRC) was tasked by the State of California to assess sea-level rise. The States of Oregon and Washington, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Geological Survey joined California in sponsoring this NRC study. The following table from Chapter 3 of the draft document provides the recommended summary impacts to the areas north and south of Cape Mendocino with Santa Barbara County falling in the southern section. The relevance of the Mendocino dividing line is the level of vertical land motion anticipated in the northern section versus southern section. National Research Council Report Sea-Level Rise Projections for California Source: The second step is to identify potential sea-level rise impacts in LCP planning areas. Current and future sea-level rise hazards and impacts should be mapped and described within combined storm and flood hazard zones. The third step is to assess risks to coastal resources and development in the planning area (i.e., identify problem areas). Coastal resources to consider include public access, beaches, recreation areas, California Coastal Trail, wetlands, other habitats, agricultural areas, cultural sites, coastal-dependent uses, critical infrastructure, Coastal Highway 1, and existing and new development. Some potential risk assessment resources include the Coastal Resilience Network that supports a community of practitioners around the world who are applying planning innovations to coastal hazard and adaptation issues. The network provides access to peer practitioners, tools, information and training focused on solutions in a consistent and cost-effective manner. Also useful is the July 2012, City of Santa Barbara Sea-Level Rise Vulnerability Study located at the following link: The fourth step is to identify adaptation measures and LCP policy options. Issues identified in step three should be addressed as well as lists of applicable adaptation measures and new implementation policies or ordinances. The fifth step is to develop or update the LCP and certify it with the California Coastal Commission. The certified or updated LCP will contain policies and land use designations that address sea-level rise and related hazards. For jurisdictions with a certified LCP, adaptation measures would be implemented through amendments to the certified LCPs. For jurisdictions that currently do not have a certified LCP, the sea-level rise policies will be part of the new LCP. 4

5 In areas without a certified LCP, the Coastal Commission retains permitting authority, and the standard of review for any development is the California Coastal Act. As a result, it is important for local governments without certified LCPs to complete the planning and certification process. Local government staff should work closely with Coastal Commission staff and relevant stakeholders to develop the new LCP or LCP amendments. Once the updates and plans are complete, local governments will submit to the Commission for certification. The final sixth step is to monitor the LCP planning area for sea-level rise and other impacts and revise when conditions change or science is updated. 5

6 The diagram below from the draft Guidance document provides an outline of the steps recommended for addressing sea-level rise in LCPs. Source: Draft Coastal Commission SLR Guidance, Chapter 4, p

7 Local Coastal Permitting Process According to Chapter 5 of the Draft Coastal Commission Sea-Level Rise Policy Guidance document, the first step in addressing sea-level rise in coastal development permits is to establish the projected sea-level rise range for the proposed project and sea-level rise throughout the project lifespan. Some general situations for considering sea-level rise and impacts on specific projects include: On or near a floodplain, beach, wetland, lagoon or estuary Exposed to wave impacts or wave run-up Protected by levees, dikes, bulkheads, seawalls, etc. On an eroding coastal bluff Reliant on shallow water well for water supply The second step is to determine how sea-level rise impacts may constrain the project site in terms of geologic stability, erosion, waves and wave run-up and flooding and inundation. Maps of site-specific hazards and areas that can safely support development are useful. If a site is within a FEMA-mapped 100-year flood zone, building regulations require new residences to have a finished floor elevation above the mapped Base Flood Elevation (BFE) (height above BFE differs by local ordinance, but is generally one to two feet). The CDP application should include a flood elevation certificate demonstrating that the finished floor foundation of the new structure will comply with the minimum FEMA guidelines and building standards. At this time, the flood certificate does not address sea-level rise-related flooding and, as a result, a certificate is not adequate to address Coastal Act and LCP standards for demonstrating that future flood risk has been minimized. In addition, designing to meet FEMA requirements may be in conflict with other resource constraints, such as protection of visual resources, community character, and public access and recreation. The third step is to determine how the project may impact coastal resources over time. A map overlaying sea-level rise risks to coastal resources and the development would provide the necessary level of analysis. Coastal Resources to consider include: Public access, beaches, recreation areas California Coastal Trail Wetlands, ESHA, other habitats Agricultural areas Cultural sites Coastal-dependent uses Critical infrastructure Coastal Highway 1 Existing and new development The fourth step is to identify project design alternatives to both avoid resource impacts and minimize risks to the project. Project modifications and re-examination of impacts and additional project alternatives are suggested. The fifth step is to finalize project design and submit a permit application. The analysis of sealevel rise concerns for inclusion in a CDP application, combined with other application items, forms a complete submittal. 7

8 The diagram below provides an outline of the steps recommended for addressing sea-level rise in coastal permits followed by a proposed permit filing checklist. Source: Draft Coastal Commission SLR Guidance, Chapter 5, p

9 Example Permit Filing Checklist for Sea-Level Rise Analysis 1. Proposed/Expected Project Life, if appropriate. 2. Sea-Level Rise Projections Used in Impacts Analyses 3. Impacts Analyses Structural and Geologic Stability Perform Geotechnical Report and Erosion Analysis Identify bluff-top setback and safe building area Show setback, safe building area and proposed project footprint (site maps) Erosion Amount over Expected Project Life Perform Coastal Processes Study and Erosion Analysis Quantify total erosion amount for proposed project site Show retreat along with proposed project footprint (site maps) Flooding and Inundation Risks Perform Coastal Processes Study and wave run-up analysis Quantify flood elevation and flooding extent Show flood extent with proposed project footprint (site map) Show flood elevation on site profile, with proposed project elevation Provide Flood Certificate if in FEMA designated 100-year Flood Zone Tipping points for Sea-Level Rise Impacts, specific to proposed project site 4. Impacts to Coastal Resources (possibly from Environmental Assessment) for current conditions and changes due to sea-level rise and related impacts Public Access and Recreation Show access resources and future changes (site maps) Water Quality, surface and groundwater Provide surface drainage patterns and runoff and future changes (site maps) Provide zone of groundwater elevation Coastal Habitats Provide wetland delineation, Endangered Species Act determination Provide boundary determinations or State Lands review, if appropriate Show all coastal habitats and future changes (site maps) Agricultural Resources Show agricultural resources and future changes (site maps) Natural Landforms Show all natural landforms and future changes (site maps) Scenic Resources Show views from public access and future changes due to access changes Archeological and Paleontological Resources Show archeological/paleontological resources and future changes (site maps) Overlay all Coastal Resources to Establish Areas Suitable for Development (site maps) 9

10 5. Analysis of Proposed Project and Alternatives Provide Design Amount of Sea Level Provide analysis of the proposed project and alternatives Identify proposed current and future adaptation strategies Show avoidance efforts (site map) Identify hazard minimization efforts that avoid resource impacts (site maps) A list of guidebooks, guidance documents, and state and local efforts underway to prepare for sea-level rise are available on the Coastal Commission website. Many of the guidance documents are general in nature and may have differing approaches. The following are general categories of information provided including: Adaptation Planning and Vulnerability Assessment Guidebooks Examples of Sea-Level Rise Vulnerability Assessments in California California State Government Resources Sea-Level Rise Data and Resource Clearinghouses Resources for Assessing Adaptation Measures California Climate Adaptation Plans that Address Sea-Level Rise The draft guidelines also include various mapping tools that apply to coastal areas. Some of the more relevant sources include the Cal-Adapt, Exploring California s Climate website that provides location-specific sea-level rise interactive mapping capability. The Pacific Institute Sea-Level Rise Maps are detailed but are in a static PDF format. The Coastal Storm Modelling System predicts coastal flooding due to sea-level rise and future storm activity and anticipates modelling of the South Coast to occur by The mapping tools and their contents and source location are summarized below. 10

11 Tools NOAA Digital Coast Sea-Level Rise Viewer On Line Sea-Level Rise Mapping Tools Summary of Information Displays potential future sea levels with a slider bar. Communicates spatial uncertainty of mapped sea-level rise, overlays social and economic data onto sea-level rise maps, and models potential marsh migration due to sea-level rise. Maps do not include any influence of beach or dune erosion. Source /tools/slrviewer Cal-Adapt Exploring California s Climate Pacific Institute Sea- Level Rise Maps Sea-Level Rise Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) Shows coastal areas that may be threatened by flooding from a 1.4 meter rise in sea level and a 100-year flood event. Maps do not now include any influence of beach or dune erosion or existing protective structures. Downloadable PDF maps showing the coastal flood and erosion hazard zones from the 2009 study. Data are overlayed on aerial photographs and show major roads. Also available are an interactive online map and downloadable maps showing sea-level rise and population and property at risk, miles of vulnerable roads and railroads, vulnerable power plants and wastewater treatment plants, and wetland migration potential. Simulates the dominant processes involved in wetland conversions and shoreline modifications during long-term sea-level rise. Map distributions of wetlands are predicted under conditions of accelerated sea-level rise, and results are summarized in tabular and graphical form. A numerical modeling system to predict coastal flooding due to both sealevel rise and storms driven by climate change. Used in the Our Coast Our Future and for a Southern California Pilot Project. Modeling of entire Southern California Bight is expected to occur by , if funding is secured. evel_rise/maps/ For the 2009 report The Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on the California Coast visit: evel_rise/report.pdf SLAMM ds/documents/cosmosfaq2013.pd f 11

12 Options for Comment The draft Coastal Commission Guidance document obviously has potentially major implications for land use regulation and permitting in coastal jurisdictions. Options for comment on the draft include a combined letter from affected Santa Barbara County jurisdictions expressing common concerns and comments. If individual jurisdictions differ in their comments and concerns, separate letters could also be submitted by jurisdiction. Due to the February 14 th Coastal Commission deadline, which is prior to the next SBCAG Board meeting on February 20 th, timing will not allow the SBCAG Board to consider a letter of its own. However, SBCAG staff can assist in coordinating comments on a joint letter from affected jurisdictions. Some relevant considerations for comment could include the following: New guidance should strive to minimize cost of compliance by streamlining analysis. Instead of requiring expensive, tailor-made reports for each project, the CCC should develop a simple checklist and permitting requirements and statewide map showing projected sea-level rise. Utilizing a single source for on-line mapping and a permitting process sponsored by the CCC could be most efficient. New guidance should be consistent with existing Flood Control District and FEMA requirements regarding finished floor elevation/base flood elevation. Recommended planning horizons (i.e., 2030, 2050, and 2100) should be reviewed for consistency with other long-range planning documents. New guidance should clearly indicate what funding is available for LCP updates or development. Grant funding allocated so far by the State, while a welcome gesture, is inadequate to the monumental task of updating all LCPs throughout California. The State should dedicate funding for local governments to conduct LCP updates that is adequate to the task and on par with the seriousness of the challenges presented by sea-level rise. New guidelines should state monitoring criteria and requirements. There should be a timeline for LCP updates submittals in consultation with affected local jurisdictions so as to not exceed the capability of local governments to prepare LCP updates or CCC staff to review and certify them in a timely manner. Is the proposed permit filing checklist compatible with existing local permit processes? ATTACHMENTS 1. Draft Coastal Commission Guidance document: 12