ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCY OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR

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1 ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCY OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR Executive summary Transport infrastructure consists of a widely connected system, with a high degree of exposure to extreme weather events. Weather extremes have a direct impact on rail, ports, air and road transport. Extreme rainfall or heat can cause damage to infrastructure like railway tracks and catenary, roads or bridges. They can lead to perturbations of traffic and operations, or put the health of travelers at risk. Extreme weather events are set to increase due to climate change. On the longer term, global warming will also influence weather patterns, and cause increases in temperature or precipitation, or sea level rises. Operators must also take this into account and anticipate, for instance, higher air conditioning costs or longer runways for some airports. The particular focus of the ToPDAd project is on 4 types of adaptation strategies: The first adaptation strategy we consider is travel information. Based on a case study of heavy precipitation and travel disruptions in Zurich we show that travel information can reduce the costs of extreme events with up to one third, by a combination of rerouting (avoiding congestion) or rescheduling activities (avoiding or reorganizing activities). The second adaptation strategy is considered in a case study of flooding in London. We consider either a priority recovery fund in case of damages as well as investment in physical adaptation strategies to prevent flooding in urban areas. We find that investments in physical infrastructures are expensive measures, but are cost-effective especially within the moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. The third adaptation strategy refers to the optimal timing of investments in the transport sector, given disruptions caused by climate change. We find that climate-proofing for long term investments in transport infrastructure becomes essential, especially for long lived infrastructures such as bridges and railway lines. The last adaptation strategy is a particular case of a change in national and global trade flows. Using a model of global container trade (World Container Model) we consider the use of the North Sea Route as an alternative route for current maritime container flows. We find that by 2050 it is likely that the North Sea Route will be used for mid-size container vessels in combination with the Suez route. However, the combined route will only capture a smaller fraction of the overall market (Europe-Asia). Moreover, competition with the Trans-Siberian Railway may reduce the potential development of the route.

2 ToPDAd has received funding from the EU s s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no

3 Weather information as a way to reduce the impact of extreme events One expected effect of climate change will be an increase in intra- and inter-seasonal variations resulting in more extreme weather in various parts of Europe. In particular, extreme downpours denote higher risks for large builtup areas than for rural areas. To assess the impact of extreme events, a deeper understanding is necessary on how people behave when weather conditions change. Having a better insight in how travellers can alleviate negative effects on the road network can help us to understand adaptation to extreme events and the role of information to travellers. The provision of traffic & weather information can induce a broad range of adaptation behaviour in travellers. We range common behavioural changes below according to their impact (from strongest to smallest): 1. Cancelling of the trip 2. Rescheduling activities, changing time and duration 3. Changes in the location where the activity is performed, such as working at home 4. Change transport modes 5. Changes in trip routing In ToPDad, the MatSim model for Zurich was used to study the impact of travel information extreme events (urban downpour). The MatSim model takes into account all possible behavioural changes that are listed above. We group these mainly under 2 larger groups: 1. Changes in activities & timing: Rescheduling and/or relocation of activities (either cancelling or changing time/duration) 2. Changes in transport choices: Rerouting and changing transport mode We find that the most significant gains (about 70%) of the cost reductions result from rescheduling and relocating activities. Rerouting and modal change are effective to some degree, but have quickly reducing marginal returns (see Box 1 on the next page). Key conclusions - the impact of weather information on travel disruptions The additional travel costs generated by extreme events for a medium sized city like Zurich tend to be rather modest. We find that the cost ranges from around 7.1 million to 32.5 million per year for Zurich and 20.3 million to 94.5 million for Switzerland. These figures are based on one day disturbances or disruptions, and only relate to passenger transport. The real costs of disruptions due to extreme precipitation events can be significantly higher as one should add multi-day disruptions, extra logistic costs and costs of damage to infrastructure. This means that the real cost level is probably up to 3 times higher. Tentative upscaling of the Swiss figures to would imply, based on Switzerland s GDP share as compared to the GDP of EU28 (~2%), that annual time cost in the EU due to extreme precipitation induced disruption can amount to 1 billion to 4.7 billion. This ranges above the time cost estimate of 0.5 ~ 1.0 billion in the EWENT study (Nokkala et al 2012). The impact of passenger information in case of extreme events, using integrated weather route information at travelers can reduce aggregate disruption costs with about one third. This means that, given the relatively low implementation cost of these options, they are cost-effective ways to increase the resiliency of the transport sector. 3

4 Is providing full information to the whole population always optimal? Supplying on-route information has a beneficial effect for travelers, but with decreasing marginal returns. Our simulations show that after a certain point (usually 40-50%), informing more travelers may no-longer have an effect. The reason is twofold: 1) the overall system optimum is reached once a certain level of travelers can switch routes and 2) travelers may overreact to new travel information, reducing its efficiency. Impact of investments in physical infrastructure in case of flooding ToPDAd then used the results of the previous case about traffic disruptions due to heavy rainfall in Zürich to evaluate different adaptation strategies in case of very extreme rainfall causing flooding in a bigger city, using London as an example. From the flooding impact assessment for London we can infer that truly extreme precipitation events can cause very significant economic effects, which far outstrip the above described costs of more frequent extreme events when comparing on an annualized basis. Two adaptation strategies were considered in particular: 1. Establishing a priority recovery fund for sectors that are critical in the economic recovery process (transport, construction materials, communication); 2. Physical investments in flood defences to reduce the overall flood risk. Extreme events are particularly complex to analyse and require very specific regional information. This study used a city-level macro-economic model that focused on extremely high levels of precipitation leading to flooding and also drew on the results of the UK ARCADIA project. Key conclusions the impact of flood defence versus a recovery fund: For larger cities that are subject to large scale disruptions, physical adaptation measures such as flood defences become an effective and cost-effective way to adapt. Physical measures reduce risk of flooding by about 40% in the case of London. However, this adaptation strategy is expensive and its effectiveness decreases when climate change becomes especially strong. The additional benefit of physical measures combined with a less costly prioritized recovery approach is small, compared to physical measures only. 4

5 The optimal timing of investments in adaptation The research community has become more focussed on climate resiliency and adaptation to climate change, following an increase in both frequency and intensity of extreme events. An increasing number of studies were oriented towards adaptations research. Climate change is a slow process, with large uncertainties on the eventual effects. As both mitigation and adaptation responses are depending strongly on the expected amount of change, making a valid model of investments in adaptation & mitigation is especially hard. The vital element to consider in adaptation planning is the longevity of the infrastructure: o Road signs / Traffic lights / Signaling equipment: 1-10 years o Cars / trucks: 4-15 years o Roadways / Highways: years o Trains / carriages: ~30 years o Railways: years o Ships: years o (Air) ports: >50 years o Bridges: >>50 years o Canals / inland waterway infrastructure: >100 years While road signs and other traffic signaling are important for the current resilience of the system, they have little relevance for the long term climate adaptation strategies for the next 50 years. We distinguish two types of adaptation approaches. Reactive adaptation means that the adjustment to the new conditions follows on events perceived as damaging or extreme and drifts on the surge in political support after the event. Proactive adaptation aims at adopting infrastructure and operational processes, before the actual damage happens and is generally based on an expectation of future physical conditions and extremes. In most societies, reactive adaptation is the norm, though a proactive strategy may lead to significantly lower costs on longer term. This reluctance can be explained by uncertainty on the future damages and the fear to for wrong adaptation or maladaptation. Key conclusions optimal timing of adaptating infrastructure: Photo: ÖBB Infra Transport infrastructures with long lifetimes should be the first to consider the impact of climate change adaptation. Railways, ports and airports are the most critical with respect to their long-term exposure. Tracks and bridges can endure up to 100 years. Rolling stock is at risk as well, with lifetimes up to 40 years. The long life time of these infrastructures makes that they should be designed for conditions that have a low occurrence today, but are more common by 2050 and Reactive adaptation leads to a higher exposure to extreme weather events in the future than under optimal investment options. The risk for maladaptation of infrastructure should be considered when uncertainty on future events is very high or when adaptation of infrastructure can lead to increased vulnerability for other events 5

6 Resilience of maritime trade flows The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is a overarching name for a number of fairways that go from the Bering Strait (east) to Novaya Zemlya (west). It is a stretch of roughly 2100 to 2900 sea miles that runs mostly along the Northern shore of Russia. For a long time it was thought infeasible to use this route on regular commercial basis, but melting of the Arctic ice cap has led to increased prospection on the NSR. It is not often that maritime traffic is provided with such an opportunity, especially one that is caused by a change in natural conditions. Therefore this particular case stands out from other cases as it considers a direct benefit from climate change. Adaptation in this case should be considered as investments to make better use of the stretch, e.g. modifying and retrofitting existing ships and upgrading of ports along the route. The main focus of both the sector and research has been on bulk transport, however not taking into account the potential for container transport would be a mistake, given that in value terms more than 50% of the maritime market is containerised and the overall size of the Europe-Asian container market. Currently, the Europe-Asian container market is worth about 20 million TEU s (2011) and is expected to at least double by It is clear that not all of the additional demand will be able to cross the Suez Canal without problems. Additionally, piracy has been a threat for traffic along the route for about a decade. The following tools were used for the research: - The World Container Model (WCM): This a transport network model especially used to predict changes in World Container flows. It is a strategic model that can make predictions in flows up till In ToPDad it is used to predict the potential traffic on the Northern Sea Route - EDIP is a CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model of 31 European countries. The primary aim of the model is to assess transport policy impacts on equity and on income distribution, but it also assesses energy and environmental effects. In ToPDad EDIP was extended to handle forward looking investment in adaptation. - ARIO or Adaptive Regional Input-Output model was originally elaborated for disaster modelling. It uses a modified input-output structure to model patterns of recovery after disasters. In the course of the ToPDad and similar projects, the model was extended to specifically handle adaptation strategies and was applied in the case study of London - MatSim is an agent-based microsimulation model that has been specifically designed to model changes in behaviour and timing of activities corresponding to changes in the transport network. It has been used for disaster modelling (evacuation), but was specifically used in ToPDad to model travel disruptions and rescheduling of activities in the presence of weather disruptions. Key conclusions: Resilience of maritime trade flows on the Northern Sea Route: The NSR provides an opportunity for maritime trade, however this can only be realised when various factors are sufficiently conducive. The pace of ice cover retreat is uncertain in the current climate scenarios. Due to decadal variations a series of years with reasonable access for (Polar class) container ships may be followed by a sequence of years with limited access, despite the long term trend of improving access. Under reasonable conditions a transit of container vessels using a combined Suez NSR trade route is possible on regular basis. The trade potential of the NSR remains rather limited at a maximum of 2.5 million TEU s or around transits per year. The NSR is subject to a non-negligible degree of competition from the Siberian railway line for certain transport flows. 6

7 The ToPDAd-models ToPDAd stands for tool-supported policy development for regional adaptation to climate change. The research project combines climate scenarios and socio-economic data from 15 existing models into one tool set. Including a broad range of outputs - from the impacts on choices of transport routes and tourist destinations to impacts on macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, sector composites, market prices and greenhouse gas emissions, the tool set allows assessing various adaptation strategies. ToPDAd s research focuses in particular on three sectors - energy, tourism and transport, while also demonstrating the economic consequences of climate change on health. The ToPDAd tool set is designed to help decision makers at various levels - from individuals and private businesses to national and European policy makers, to map future challenges related to climate change adaptation, as well as to evaluate which measures are best for their organisation. By bringing together information from different sectors and disciplines, ToPDAd is among the first to show strong interdependencies between various sectors and decision levels. This approach is illustrated in seven case themes that were developed by ToPDAd about the following themes: (1) summer beach tourism, (2) winter skiing tourism, (3) the effects of extreme events on traffic in cities, (4) new potential arising for shipping as a result of Arctic ice melting, (5 & 6) effects of climate change on energy production (renewable energy, biomass and nuclear energy), and (7) the macro-economic impact of extreme rainfall in cities. While starting from local events and situations, the results of these studies are also relevant for and applicable in wider regions in Europe. The cases look forward to 2050 and some to 2100, while applying different climate scenarios, based on combinations of the climate pathways (RCPs) and socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) used by the IPCC. ToPDAd involves ten research institutes from nine European countries and is coordinated by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd. The research project is funded by the European Union s research programme FP7. 7

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