The Challenges of Clean Air - Local, Regional & Global A Possible Solution

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1 The Challenges of Clean Air - Local, Regional & Global A Possible Solution ISATA Congress Dublin, Ireland - September Outline Summarize Progress To Date Highlight Remaining Problems Forecast Future Trends Business AS Usual Alternative Scenarios Global Motor Vehicle Emissions Reduction Compared To No Control US National Air Quality Improvements in Past Decade % % % 67% 6% 8% 4% 9% Percent Change in Air Quality Concentrations % % -% -% -% -4% -8% -% -% -4% -6% -6% -% -% -6% NMHC CO NOx NO CH4 CO -% -6% -7% CO -6% Nitrogen Dioxide Lead Ozone ( Hr) PM Sulfur Dioxide

2 PM Study in Europe (Lancet Medical Journal - September, ) ~6% of all deaths from PM ~4, deaths per year in Austria, France, Switzerland; times traffic fatalities Motor Vehicles responsible for ~% People in Cities die about 8 months earlier than they would otherwise over, cases of chronic bronchitis;, asthma attacks; 6 million lost person days of activity Health costs from pollution from traffic ~.7% of total GDP Average Los Angeles Basin Cancer Risk Apportionment Approximate Risk = 44 per Million Carbonyl.% Benzene 7.% Other.%, Butadiene 8.% Diesel PM 7.%

3 Serious Ozone Air Pollution Problems Remain in the US ~6 (-hr) to (8-hr) Million People Lived in Non-Attainment Areas in 999 EPA's Forecast For 7 8 Ozone Non-Attainment Areas 8 Marginal Areas 9 Million People Living in These Areas Global Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases - PPM CO All Other Gases. CO Methane NO Source: IPCC Preindustrial 994 Global Warming Concerns IPCC - 99 "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence" IPCC - "there has been a discernible human influence on global climate" Global Trend in Light Duty NOx Control Grams/km Tier Tier LEV Petrol ULEV Diesel SULEV Euro Japan Euro 4

4 Global Trend in Light Duty Diesel PM Control Grams/km Tier Tier LEV ULEV SULEV Euro Japan Euro 4 European Agreement to Lower CO Emissions Some g/km cars in Target Range of 6-7 g/km in Review Feasibility of g/km for Average car by in g CO/Km Actual Target () Agreement (8) Shifting Distribution of World's Population Less developed regions 67.8% 9 Total: More developed regions.% Less developed regions 8.% 998 Total: 9 More developed regio.% Total: 899 More developed regions.% Less developed regions 87.%

5 Global Urbanization is Occurring 9% Projected GDP Growth Rates 6 6 8% 7% W Europe S & E Asia 4 4 6% % 4% % C & E Europe N America C & S America Africa Japan Other Asia Oceania World % % Canada, Mexico and United States Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Japan and Korea Australia and New Zealand Former Soviet Union China East Asia Latin America Rest of the World Source: OECD Global Trends in the Total Vehicle Population (Excluding Motorcycles) Millions Global Trends in the Total Vehicle Population (Excluding Motorcycles) Millions Commercial Vehicles Cars Oceania Other Asia Japan S & E Asia Africa C & S America N America C & E Europe W Europe

6 Topic Today is Goods Movement Motorcycle Production in Selected Countries Global Trends in On Road Motor Vehicle Emissions (Normalized( to 99) Millions Austria UK Netherlands Czech&Slovak Germany USA Spain France Italy CIS Taiwan India Japan China OECD Countries Only NMHC NOx CO NO CH4 CO PM In '99 China Produced,69,6 % of World Total 8% Increase From '

7 Global Trends in On Road Motor Vehicle Emissions (Normalized( to 99) Global Trends in On Road Motor Vehicle Emissions (Normalized( to 99) Non OECD Countries Only 7 NMHC NOx CH4 6 CO NO CO PM 7 6. NMHC CO NOx NO CH4 CO PM Advanced Technologies Are Emerging Toyota Prius Hybrid Honda Insight Hybrid Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Battery Electric Fuel Cell Cars Passenger Car CO Trends Base Improved Efficiency Fuel Cells FC+Hybrids

8 Challenges Ahead For An Increasingly Mobile World Accelerated Spread of Low Emissions Technologies & Fuels To Rapidly Developing Countries Comparable Controls For Heavy Duty & Off Road Vehicles & Engines Very Low Sulfur Gasoline & Diesel Fuel Much Cleaner/Eliminate Stroke MCs Very High Efficiency Vehicles/Engines Low Carbon/Renewable Fuels Lower Toxic Emissions Concluding On A High Note! - Progress is Occurring - Strong Push Over Next - 8 Years - Advanced Technologies Critical