My Story. What to do with CO 2? Presented by Katherine Romanak, Ph.D. Energy, Climate and Water in the 21st Century TXESS Revolution Summer Institute

Transcription

1 What to do with CO 2? Presented by Katherine Romanak, Ph.D. Based on the Stabilization Wedges concept by S. Pacala and R. Socolow, Science, August 13, My Story What to do with CO2? 1

2 My Work Activity: Global Trends in Energy and Population What to do with CO2? 2

3 CO 2 Bathtub Model 8 billion tons go in Fossil Fuel Burning 800 billion tons carbon ATMOSPHERE 4 billion tons added every year Ocean Land Biosphere (net) = 4 billion tons go out Past, Present, and Potential Future Carbon Levels in the Atmosphere ATMOSPHERE 50 years doubled CO (570) Today Pre-Industrial Glacial Billions of tons of carbon 800 (380) 600 (285) 400 (190) billions of tons carbon ( ppm ) What to do with CO2? 3

4 Activity: Impacts of Global Warming from Increased CO 2 How Could Global Warming Impact us? Regional Risks in Southeast US Risk of tropical species invasion Low relief coastline Inundation by sea level rise Fire ant Invasion, USDA 20cm rise Hurricane Gulf of Mexico BEG, J. Gibeaut, 2003 What to do with CO2? 4

5 Strategy to Stop Increasing Levels of CO 2 in the Atmosphere: Carbon Sequestration Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Reduce CO 2 emissions from point sources. burned and CO 2 emitted into the air Carbon in the form of fossil fuel is mined CO 2 shipped as supercritical fluid via pipeline to a selected, permitted injection site CO 2 injected at pressure into pore space at depths below and isolated (sequestered) from potable water. CO Geologic 2 stored in Storage pore space over geologically significant GS time frames. What to do with CO2? 5

6 Choices, Choices, Choices Lets Play the CO 2 Wedge Game! What to do with CO2? 6

7 Historical CO2 Emissions 16 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 8 Historical emissions The Stabilization Triangle 16 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Stabilization Triangle Current path = ramp Interim Goal 8 Historical emissions Flat path What to do with CO2? 7

8 Stabilization Wedges 16 8 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Historical emissions Current path = ramp Flat path 16 GtC/y Eight wedges Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today What is a Wedge? A wedge is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions It grows in 50 years. It has already been commercialized Total = 25 Gigatons carbon 1 GtC/yr 50 years What to do with CO2? 8

9 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4) Fossil-Fuel-Based Strategies (4) 16 GtC/y Renewables & Biostorage (6) Fuel Switching (1) CO 2 Capture & Storage (3) Stabilization Triangle 8 GtC/y Nuclear Energy (1) Renewable Fuels & Electricity (4) Forest and Soil Storage (2) Wedge Options Handout What to do with CO2? 9

10 Efficiency (#1-4) Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA Double the fuel efficiency of the world s cars or halve miles traveled There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055 E, T, H / $ Produce today s electric capacity with double today s efficiency Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today Reduce miles traveled by passenger and/or freight vehicles Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings Replacing all the world s incandescent bulbs with CFL s would provide 1/4 of one wedge Sector s affected: E = Electricity, T =Transport, H = Heat Cost based on scale of $ to $$$ Carbon Capture & Storage (#5-7) Implement CCS at 800 GW coal electric plants or 1600 GW natural gas electric plants or 180 coal synfuels plants or 10 times today s capacity of hydrogen plants Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey E, T, H / $$ There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO 2 per year by 2055 need What to do with CO2? 10

11 Fuel Switching (#8) Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey). E, H / $ Nuclear Electricity (#9) Triple the world s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055 Graphic courtesy of NRC The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from E/ $$ What to do with CO2? 11

12 Wind Electricity (#10) Wind Hydrogen (#12) Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coalbased electricity, OR Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel E, T, H / $-$$ Photo courtesy of DOE A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 30 Solar Electricity (#11) Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054 E / $$$ Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times What to do with CO2? 12

13 Biofuels (#13) Scale up current global ethanol production by 30 times Photo courtesy of NREL Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops T, H / $$ Natural Sinks: Forest Storage (#14) and Soil Storage (#15) Eliminate tropical deforestation OR Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S. OR Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha) B / $ Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland Photos courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO What to do with CO2? 13

14 Take Home Messages In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO 2, we need to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions No one technology can do the whole job a variety of strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO 2 doubling Every wedge has associated impacts and costs For more information, contact Roberta Hotinski Consultant to CMI hotinski@princeton.edu Or visit our wedges webpage at What to do with CO2? 14