An Evaluation of the Correlation Between Shale Gas Development and Ozone Pollution Within the Barnett Shale Region

Transcription

1 An Evaluation of the Correlation Between Shale Gas Development and Ozone Pollution Within the Barnett Shale Region Mahdi Ahmadi and Kuruvilla John Department of Mechanical and Energy Engineering University of North Texas Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4 5, Lubbock, TX. Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 1

2 Presentation Outline Air Emissions of Fracking Activities Barnett Shale Trends of Air Pollution in DFW Area Meteorologically Adjusted Ozone Trends Conclusion Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 2

3 Air Emission of HF More accessible and cheaper natural gas can lower SO 2, black carbon, and mercury in power plants Less CO 2 from burning, but more CH 4 (12.4 times stronger GHG) from production and transmission Other emissions from extensive unconventional activities in production Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 3

4 Air Emission of HF Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 4

5 Air Emission of HF Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 5

6 Air Emission of HF Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 6

7 Air Emission of HF Criteria air pollutants directly emitted by HF activities: NO X Criteria air pollutants in directly resulted from HF air emissions: Ozone (O 3 ), Particulate Matter (PM) Cumulative impact of HF on air quality needs to be investigated in various temporal and spatial scales. Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 7

8 Barnett Shale One of the most productive plays in the US. Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 8

9 Barnett Shale Total number of gas wells: At the end of 2007: 5720 wells At the end of 2013: 17,494 wells Rate: 713 wells/year (between ), and 1682 wells/year ( ) 6,000 Barnett Shale Gas Production 20,000 Barnett Shale Well Count 4,500 3,000 1, Million Cubic Feet Per Day ,000 12,000 8,000 4, Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 9

10 Ozone Trends Raw ozone time series and Design Value in Denton Airport South (C56) station (NAAQS current limit: 85 ppb) 140 Measured Design Value Ozone (ppb) Year Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 10

11 NO X Trends Raw NO X time series and Design Value in Denton Airport South (C56) station 250 Measured 0.98th Percentile 200 NOx (ppb) Year Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 11

12 NO 2 Trends Raw NO 2 time series and Design Value in Denton Airport South (C56) station (NAAQS current limit: 100 ppb) 60 Measured Design Value NO2 (ppb) Year Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 12

13 PM 2.5 Trends Acceptable PM 2.5 time series and 24 Hr Design Value in Denton Airport South (C56) station (NAAQS current limit: 35 μg/m 3 ) PM2.5 (μg/m 3 ) Measured 24 Hr Design Value Year Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 13

14 The Research Study objective: Study area: Study period: Air quality data: Number of air quality monitoring sites: Method: Evaluate the meteorologically adjusted trends in the measured ozone concentrations in north Texas North Texas region including DFW metroplex (12 17 years worth of data) Ozone and meteorological parameters 16 CAMS operated by TCEQ Statistical analysis of meteorologically adjusted ozone trend using KZ filtering method Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX

15 Monitoring Sites CAMS # Name County Parameters No. of wells 10 mi C76 Parker County Parker O 3, SR, T, W 158 C73 Granbury Hood O 3, SR, T, W 428 C75 Eagle Mountain Tarrant O 3, SR, T, W 2723 C77 Cleburne Airport Johnson O 3, SR, T, W 1474 C13 Ft. Worth Northwest Tarrant O 3, SR, T, RH, W 1092 C17 Keller Tarrant O 3, SR, T, W 1364 C56 Denton Municipal Airport Denton O 3, SR, T, RH, W 1362 C61 Arlington Muni. Airport Tarrant O 3, SR, T, W 862 C70 Grapevine Fairway Tarrant O 3, SR, T, RH, W 299 C402 Dallas Executive Airport Dallas O 3, T, W 1 C60 Dallas Hinton St. Dallas O 3, SR, T, RH, W 2 C63 Dallas North No. 2 Dallas O 3, SR, T, W 2 C31 Frisco Collin O 3, SR, T, W 0 C69 Rockwall Heat Rockwall O 3, SR, T, W 0 C71 Kaufman Kaufman O 3, SR, T, RH, W 0 C1006 Greenville Hunt O 3, SR, T, W 0 Hydraulic Fracturing zone (HFZ) Nonhydraulic fracturing zone (NHFZ) Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 15

16 Meteorologically Adjusted Ozone Step 1: Spectral decomposition on ozone and meteorological time series by applying KZ filter Step 2: (baseline and short term component of) Ozone time series is calculated by a three variable linear regression (temperature and solar radiation as surrogates) Step 3: Meteorologically adjusted ozone time series is calculated as the residuals of linear regressions,,,,, Step 4: KZ filter is applied again to M.A. ozone time series to calculate long term and baseline components of M.A. ozone Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX

17 Meteorologically Adjusted Ozone Statistical evaluation of trends of meteorologically adjusted (M.A.) ozone Construction of M.A. ozone: application of Kolmogorov Zurbenko (KZ) filter M.A. ozone trends: statistical evaluation of total, longterm, and baseline M.A. ozone Evaluations performed for the HFZ and NHFZ regions over two contiguous periods: (B07) and (A07) Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX

18 Method KZ filter KZ filter is a robust low pass filter used for spectral (frequency based) decomposition of time series * Computationally KZ filter is a simple iterative moving average technique 1 Long-term Spectral decomposition (KZfilter) Seasonal (Log transformed) raw ozone time series Short-term * Rao ST, Zurbenko IG. Detecting and tracking changes in ozone air quality. Air & waste 1994; 44: Rao ST, Zalewsky E, Zurbenko IG. Determining temporal and spatial variations in ozone air quality. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 1995; 45: Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX

19 Results Because all expressions are given for the natural logarithm of raw ozone data, M.A. ozone values have multiplicative effects in original ozone time series Also since O M.A. values are sufficiently small therefore: exp Therefore 100 values represent change in mean value of the original ozone time series Statistical evaluation of all components of M.A. ozone (mean value, longterm, short term, and baseline) is performed to evaluate the contribution of non meteorological variables including anthropogenic influences affecting ozone formation and destruction. Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX

20 Results M.A. Ozone Examples of calculated and measure ozone time series and residuals (M.A. ozone) Measured Calculated Log of ozone (ppb) Long term component Mean value M.A. ozone Baseline of M.A. ozone M.A. ozone M.A. ozone Year After the second application of KZ filter Constructed M.A. ozone at Keller (C17) station Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX Year

21 Results Wind Pattern Wind rose for CAMS 13 (Ft. Worth Northwest) (May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep) Frequency (percent) W NW SW N S NE SE Wind speed (mph) >= E Frequency (percent) W NW SW N S NE SE Wind speed (mph) >= E B07 ( ) A07 ( ) Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX

22 Results Wind Pattern Wind rose at CAMS 60 (Dallas, Hinton St.) (May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep) Frequency (percent) W NW SW N S NE SE Wind speed (mph) >= E Frequency (percent) W NW SW N S NE SE Wind speed (mph) >= E B07 ( ) A07 ( ) Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX

23 Results Trend of annual mean values of M.A. ozone in HF zone and non HF zone 12% 9% HFZ NHFZ 6% Average M.A. ozone 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% Year Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX

24 Results Trend of long term component of M.A. ozone in HF zone and non HF zone 6% 4% HFZ NHFZ Long-term component of M.A. Ozone 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Year Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX

25 Remarks Shale gas exploration and production activities have increased since 2001 and quite significantly since 2007 (ERG, Forecasting Oil and Gas Activity, 2012) Daily vehicle miles travelled (VMT) is relatively flat during Source: TxDOT (Total VMT for Dallas, Denton, Wise, Tarrant, Hood, Parker, Hunt, Ellis, Collin, Rockwall, & Kaufman counties) Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX

26 Remarks Based on the mean value of M.A. ozone there is approximately 8% more increase within the fracking region since 2008 when compared to the non fracking region Based on the mean value of long term M.A. ozone there is 2% more increase within the fracking region since 2008 when compared to the non fracking region There is no significant change in Vehicle Mile Traveled between 2007 and 2011 Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX

27 Thank You! Questions? Mahdi Ahmadi: Dr. Kuruvilla John: Fracturing Impacts and Technologies Conference September 4-5, Lubbock, TX. 27