Conflict-free Hydropower and e-flows: IPPAN can lead, or follow

Transcription

1 Conflict-free Hydropower and e-flows: IPPAN can lead, or follow Prof. Dr. Hari Krishna Shrestha Senior Researcher, CCMCC Project Nepal Engineering College Friday Talk Program Independent Power Producers Association Nepal Kathmandu February 17, 2017

2 CoCooN-CCMCC Project Objective: Conflict minimization and cooperation maximization in hydropower development in the context of climate change Research Site: Tamor (Nepal) and Teesta (India) Basin Why two countries? Learn from each other s experience by comparative analysis Partner Institutes: Nepal Engineering College, NWCF, Sikkim University, SOPPECOM, Forum for Dialogue on Water Conflict, Wageningen University, University of East Anglia, International Rivers, and others Duration:

3 Basic considerations in water resources development projects involving natural water flow diversion: 1. River is an organic entity; it is fundamentally different than a piped flow or a canal flow 2. Human being and other living beings receive innumerable benefits from naturally flowing water (ecological services) 3. Rivers and rivulets are integral parts of livelihood, culture and heritage 4. Drying up rivers for development will not be sustainable, and invite conflict

4 Basic considerations in water resources development projects involving natural water flow diversion: 5. Drying of river can result in extinction of specific known, and yet to be discovered, species; such damages can be extremely costly, if at all possible 6. Survival of human race depends on survival of other forms of life 7. Short term gain at the cost of long term loss is not a smart choice

5 River diversion for irrigation Indrawati fisherman Koshi river crossing at Chatara River rafting in Trishuli

6 Chhath preyers Maghe Sankranti Pashupati Aryaghat Our livelihood and culture are inextricably linked to rivers.

7 e-flow(s) basic Quantum of natural flow required for sustenance of environment, downstream livelihood and culture Drying of intermittent rivers are not a problem since local ecology is adapted to periodic drying; life springs immediately once river starts to flow However, drying up of, or too little flow in, perennial rivers by damming and diverting water can have long term and irreversible negative impacts on ecology and downstream livelihood

8 Sahar Katle Asala River consists of biological organisms, minerals, nutrients, sediments and water; sample of fishes in Nepalese rivers Tite

9 Jalkapur Gonch Gardi Raj Bam

10 June 2015 images of Tamor river fishes Golden Mahseer /big-fishes-on-tamor-river-banks-photofeature.html

11 Infrastructure construction and Operation inside Conservation Area Working Policy 2065; CAD: 2065/12/20 E-flows provisions in Nepal Environmental Provision Provision shall be made to release such quantum of water which is higher of either at least ten percent of the minimum monthly average discharge of the river/stream or the minimum required quantum as identified in the environmental impact assessment study report. The Hydropower Development Policy, 2001, HMG AD: 15 Oct 2001 (2058/6/29) Environment Protection and Water Quality Management In the course of using water for irrigation from any river/rivulet only the remaining water shall be utilized for irrigation purpose upon leaving minimum water in the same river/rivulet after determining so that it will not have negative effects on the local biodiversity. (Irrigation Policy 2060) (Policy in Irrigation policy 2070)

12 e-flows Assessment (EFA) There are more than 200 EFA methods; some are comprehensive/ holistic, and requires lengthy and costly investigation, others are short and quick Hydrological Index Methods Hydraulic Rating Methods Habitat Simulation Methods Holistic Methods Selection of EFA method depends on project type; normally a large scale project demands in-depth holistic assessment Regardless of the EFA method, the shape of e-flows should closely resemble natural hydrograph Current e-flows provision in HDP 2001 results in flat downstream discharge which does not match hydrograph; e-flows provisions in conservation area working policy match.

13 Example of natural hydrograph, e-flows, and water available for HP development Case study of Upper Trishuli I HEP Ref. Rijal N., 2016

14 e-flows are getting wider acceptance: Some recent activities in Nepal/India/Bhutan HS Jha: Study on e-flow using PHABSIM, Budhi Gandaki N Rijal: Study on e-flow (Upper Trishuli I HEP; nmag Simulation) Nepal Engineering College/Pokhara University: approval of syllabus on e-flows, and preparation of e-flows Reader Training on EFA (September 2015) EFA Workshop (April 2016): DoED/nec Primer on e-flow, 2012 (India) IWMI: Ganga e-flow Calculator, 2012 USAID/IFC training: fish passage & WBG s e-flows guideline Bhutan: 30% of lean season flow Bhutan: guideline preparation underway

15 IWMI: Ganga e-flows Calculator, 2012

16 A simple EFA method for HPP (Hydrology based) 1. Classify rivers based on contribution, importance, endangered species 2. Estimate monthly flow augmented by discharge measurement 3. Evaluate climate change impact on monthly river flow (short and long term) 4. Estimate existing monthly water use for downstream livelihood, drinking water, industry and culture 5. Estimate potential change in near-future monthly water use for downstream livelihood, drinking water, industry and culture 6. Estimate water needs for sustainability of downstream flora and fauna 7. For each class of river: Water available for HPP = (2+3) (4+5+6) Note: 1. Initially, in the absence of data and systematic study, percentage of flow can be used, based on river class 2. Monthly river flow can be estimated from WECS or other methods 3. Modeling can provide estimate of CC impact on river flow

17 IPPAN s Proactive Role in EFA and Conflict-free HP Development: Lead or be led E-flows is gaining ground; IPPAN can position itself and lead the wave for conflict free HP development by developing and proposing proper EFA method, rather than be led. Proper EFA s potential benefits: Realistic design, based on actual water availability, rather than over estimation of flow for HP projects No penalty due to low power production than agreed Less conflict with local stakeholders since process is transparent Scientific basis for negotiation based on return on investment rather than flat rate, during PPA process Future projects in the area will be aware of water availability and design their project accordingly, so less chance of conflict with other projects DoED will start consulting IPPAN before issuing license Provide a strong technical and scientific basis to resolve water allocation related conflict, and as the leader, IPPAN will have stronger voice in conflict resolution

18 Just a sample, not based on real data. Intended to represent concept graphically. Factors considered: monthly variations in (a) river flow, (b) e-flow, (c) crop cycle/type, (d) population increase, (e) water supply, (f) industrial and other water needs, and (g) rainfall.

19 E-flows consideration and HPP feasibility Upper Trishuli I HPP Firm power value Operation costs Net Benefit Revenue Loss Percentage Revenue Loss Scenario (M US $) (M US $) (M US $) (M US $) % No bypass release Amount gained due to less conflict Bypass release based on new flow regime ?? Proposed bypass release ?? Bypass release based on HDP, ?? Data Source: Rijal, N., 2016

20 Sample excel format sheet to calculate effect of e-flows on power, energy and revenue Q m 3 /s (from FDC) 10% of min. 90 percentile monthly flow Water use Water use % Power Energy Energy Power Energy Energy Revenue Revenue for HPP for HPP Diff kw Days GWh kwh kw GWh kwh Amount NRs Amount NRs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Based on Based on min. 90 percentile flow 13 % difference in revenue 17 monthly flow Example only. If properly implemented, HPP promoters will have a tool to negotiate price, local stakeholders will have a tool to negotiate water release. Decrease in conflict, increase in net profit. flow

21 CC Modeling: Changes in Flow 2050 s Upper Hewa Khola Annual average flow: + 22 % Rainy season average flow: +33% Winter: -5.3% Pre rainy season average flow: -24% Melung Upper Hewa Khola Change in Month monthly average flow % Jan -5 Feb -10 Mar +14 Apr +32 May -64 Jun +83 Jul +63 Aug -10 Sep +24 Oct +30 Nov +4 Dec -3 Total +22

22 Thank you Contact: