Geoengineering representation in an integrated assessment model - preliminary assessment -

Transcription

1 Geoengineering representation in an integrated assessment model - preliminary assessment - Atsushi Kurosawa (*1) Kazuhiro Tsuzuki (*1) Ryo Moriyama(*1) Yuki Ishimoto(*1) Masahiro Sugiyama (*2) Kooiti Masuda(*3) (*1) The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE) (*2) Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) (*3) Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Part of research activities were supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-10) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. 1 1

2 Objec&ve and Overview n Objective Inclusion of geoengineering and adaptation options to the integrated assessment model. n Geoengineering Ø Solar radiation management (SRM) and carbon dioxide Ø SRM - aerosol scattering in stratosphere, etc. Ø CDR BECCS, air capture, etc. n Adaptation Ø Information exchange with NIES 2

3 Integrated Assessment Model GRAPE - Proposed Modified Framework - Climate impact mitigation countermeasure Energy (+CDR) 15 global regions Climate +SRM&CDR CH4, N2O,F-gases, Geoengineering Cost Macroeconomy 1-D simple climate model - carbon and energy balance - GHGs, Aerosols Biomass Energy Climate Impacts +Adaptation Landuse 3

4 Geoengineering Op&ons Lenton and Vaughan (2009, Atmos. Chem. Phy) 4

5 IPCC Expert Mee&ng on Geoengineering: Mee&ng Report n Terminology SRM is not included in Mitigation or Adaptation. There is no clear definition of difference between CDR and Mitigation n Criteria Effectiveness Feasibility Scalability Environmental risks Costs and affordability Detection and attribution Governance challenges Ethical issues Social acceptability Uncertainty 5

6 Geoengineering Cost Es&mates: Survey Cost (bi l $/yr /(W/m2) ) 1. E E E E E E St rat osphri c aer osol s SRM cost Cl oud al bedo 5 Space based refl ector 200 Convent i onal mi t i g a t i o n Des er t surf ace al bedo Human settl ement al bedo Order estimate. Environmental damage is not included in the estimate. Source:The Royal Society(2009) Cost (USD/t - CO2) NRC ( 1992) CDR cost Boyd ( 2008) 80 8 Oc ean fertilization (i ron) Col umbi a Uni ver s i t y (2003) Including order estimate. 27 Source:Sugiyama (2009) Kei t h et. al ( 2006) Ranj an ( 2010) Di r ec t ai r c apt ur e 6

7 Stratospheric Aerosols: Transporta&on Cost Aerosol transport by airplanes: bil USD/yr Source: Geoengineering Cost Analysis (Final report)(aurora Flight Sciences Corp., 2011) 7

8 How Much Aerosol Needed? Source: Pierce et al., Geophys. Res. Le,., 37, (2010) About 2Mt-S/yr à 1W/m 2 (6.1 Mt H 2 SO 4 /yr) 8

9 The cost of stratospheric aerosol injec&on depends on uncertain factors Cost uncertainty Aerosol injection cost($/yr) = Unit cost of aerosol injection [$/kg] (material cost + transport&injection) x Amount required for unit aerosol radiative forcing [kg/yr/(w/m 2 )] Depends on engineering consideration (e.g. vehicle, fuel, material injected, injection device) x Radiative forcing required to counteract climate change [W/m 2 ] Depends on forcing stabilization scenarios. Sugiyama, et. al. (2012) and Moriyama, et.al. (2013) 9

10 Revised Cost Es&mates Annual Cost (bil USD/yr/(W/m2)) Aurora + alpha High airport Fuel 3.5$/gal Fuel 6.6$/gal Fuel 9.6$/gal H2SO4 200$/t H2SO4 Airport Depreciation and Interest Flight Crew Spares Fuel Support Personnel In the Aurora (2011), only the aircraft and fuel cost is assessed. Sulphuric acid aerosol cooling effect is the same as that of Aurora(2011) (i.e. 6.1Mt/yr/(W/m2)) Royal Society (2009) stratospheric aerosol injection cost differs. Inclusion of fuel and other factors and their fluctuations would widen the uncertainty range. Extension to materials other than H 2 SO 4. Moriyama, et.al. (2013) 10

11 Works in Progress (other than SRM) n CDR BECCS, Air capture n Adaptation n Integration to IAM 11

12 References M.Sugiyama, A.Kurosawa, K.Masuda, K.Tsuzuki, R.Moriyama and Y.Ishimoto, Climate Engineering and Climate Policy: A review, Proc annual meeting of Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Sep (in Japanese) M.Sugiyama, A.Kurosawa, K.Masuda, K.Tsuzuki, R.Moriyama and Y.Ishimoto, Assessing benefits and costs of climate geoengineering for an integrated assessment model, AGU, Fall Meeting, Dec R.Moriyama, A.Kurosawa, M.Sugiyama, K.Masuda, K.Tsuzuki and Y. Ishimoto, Cost Analysis of Climate Engineering -Solar Radiation Management, Proc. 29 th conf. on energy, economy, and environment, Japan Society of Energy and Resources, Jan (in Japanese) A. Kurosawa, R.Moriyama, Y.Murakami, Bioenergy with CCS, Journal of Japan Institute of Energy, vol.92, pp , 2013 (in Japanese). A. Kurosawa, Biomass-Energy R&D and CCS Status in Japan, Workshop on Bio-energy and CCS(BECCS) - Options for Brazil, University of Sao Paulo, June 2013 M. Sugiyama, Engineering consideration on stratospheric aerosol injection. Short presentation at 4th Interdisciplinary Summer School on Geoengineering, Harvard University, August 2013 M. Sugiyama, Geoengineering research in Japan. Short presentation at 4th Interdisciplinary Summer School on Geoengineering, Harvard University, August