Report of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel

Transcription

1 Report of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel 30 th MeeHng of the ParHes to the Montreal Protocol 5-9 November 2018 Quito, Ecuador Environmental effects of ozone deplehon, UV radiahon, and interachons with climate change Presented by EEAP Co- chairs: Janet F. Bornman (Australia) Nigel Paul (UK)

2 43 scienhsts from 18 countries contributed to the 2018 EEAP Quadrennial Assessment In accordance with our terms of reference (ArHcle 3 of the Vienna ConvenHon), EEAP addresses the impacts on the environment based on the interachve effects of ozone deplehon, anhcipated ozone recovery, and climate change on UV radiahon reaching the Earth s surface

3 The Assessment highlights the contribuhon of the Montreal Protocol to environmental sustainability, human health and well- being, and the alignment with many of the UN Sustainable Development Goals

4 UN Sustainable Development Goals addressed by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, 2018 SDG ALIGNMENT

5 ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION with and without the MP The decreasing ODS controlled by the Montreal Protocol has helped to avoid large increases of solar UV- B radiahon that would otherwise have occurred by the middle of the 21st century, and thus large negahve effects have not occurred

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7 HUMAN HEALTH Overview Air quality

8 HUMAN HEALTH Skin cancer Modelling studies show that implementahon of the Montreal Protocol has avoided catastrophic effects on human health Incidence of skin cancer remains high, mainly in light- skinned populahons: New Zealand. Over 90,000 new skin cancers/year (pop. 4.8 m) Most expensive cancer in several countries USA. Cutaneous malignant melanoma, ca 457 million USD in 2011 Predicted to increase to ca 1.6 billion USD in 2030 Changes in lifestyle, from sun avoidance to sun- seeking behaviour cannot be ignored; exacerbated by climate change

9 HUMAN HEALTH Eye disease

10 HUMAN HEALTH Eye disease Cataract Leading cause of vision impairment globally: 12.6 million blind in million visually impaired due to cataract in 2015 ParUcularly in medium- low income countries owen with high ambient UV radiauon Modelling studies show that implementahon of the Montreal Protocol will have prevented many millions of cases of cataract

11 HUMAN HEALTH Eye disease Age- related macular degenerahon DegeneraUve eye condiuon a leading cause of severe vision impairment in people over 40 years of age macula

12 HUMAN HEALTH Eye disease Age- related macular degenerahon DegeneraUve eye condiuon a leading cause of severe vision impairment in people over 40 years of age

13 HUMAN HEALTH Immune systems UV radiahon suppresses some immune responses UV radiahon (Re- )acuvates viral infecuons such as the herpes virus, affecung eyes and causing shingles Immunosuppression is one of the contribuung factors of skin cancer Reduces the efficacy of vaccines against: poliovirus, influenza, TB, measles, and hepaus B

14 HUMAN HEALTH Air quality Poor air quality has large direct and indirect effects on human health globally EsUmated as the largest cause of deaths from an environmental factor 1.4 to 4.2 million deaths per year from paruculate macer and ozone Kidney & bladder cancers Impaired reproduchve funchon Parkinson s disease, demenha, decline in cognihve ability Respiratory deaths: million in adults (aged 30 + years) Cardiovascular: 2 nd most sensiuve to air pollutants (e.g., ozone)

15 HUMAN HEALTH Beneficial effects UV radiauon generates vitamin D producuon in the skin Vitamin D: essenual for healthy bones Evidence also for beneficial effects on: ü Systemic autoimmune diseases (e.g., muluple sclerosis) ü Myopia (short sightedness) ü Colorectal cancer ü Allergies ü InflammaUon of the skin

16 HUMAN HEALTH behavioural changes and sun protechon Concern about high levels of UV- B radiauon as a consequence of stratospheric ozone depleuon was an important driver for sun protechon programmes in many countries Programmes focus on promoung changes in people s behaviour, supported by structural and policy- level intervenuons Highly cost- effechve in prevenung skin cancers However, UV protecuon by some current sunscreens reaching coastal waters are an emerging threat to aquauc ecosystems!

17 HUMAN HEALTH Overview Air quality

18 TROPOSPHERIC AIR QUALITY- 1. Air quality affects UV radiahon Tropospheric air polluuon (ozone, paruculates, aerosols) absorbs UV radiauon. In areas that are currently heavily polluted, future decreases in air polluuon are expected to cause local increases in UV radiauon. These effects of air polluuon will act alongside the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone and cloud cover to determine future UV radiauon at the Earth s surface.

19 TROPOSPHERIC AIR QUALITY- 2. UV radiahon affects air quality The quality of the air we breathe is determined by emissions, weather, and photochemical transformauons by UV radiauon Future recovery of stratospheric ozone and the effects of climate change are expected to affect ground- level ozone concentrauons. The magnitude and direcuon of change will vary substanually between different geographical locauons (e.g. urban vs rural). AIR QUALITY- 3. ODS replacements may affect air quality Some ODS replacements (e.g. ammonia, hydrocarbons) may have direct or indirect effects on tropospheric air quality. These effects are currently assessed to be small relauve to other sources, but there is a current lack of published informauon.

20 AIR QUALITY IMPACTS As well as damaging human health, tropospheric air polluhon has substanhal negahve effects on crop yields. Recent examples from China 10-36% yield loss for wheat (loss of ca 2.1 billion USD$) 7 24% yield loss for rice (loss of ca 2.4 billion USD$) Changes in tropospheric air polluuon is one mechanism of several by which future changes in stratospheric ozone may influence food security.

21 WATER QUALITY - TrifluoroaceHc acid (TFA) TFA is a degradauon product of several HCFCs, HFCs, and HFOs, as well as some other man- made fluorocarbon compounds. TFA is highly persistent and can accumulate in water bodies. Our previous assessments reported that future concentrauons of TFA due to the expected use of ODS replacements do not pose a significant threat to human health or the environment. That assessment remains unchanged. A recent report on TFA by the Norwegian Environment Agency highlighted some gaps in the knowledge but arrived at the same conclusion.

22 WATER QUALITY Exposure to UV radiauon plays a major role in: - breaking down plashc in the environment - breaking down chemical contaminants in the environment - determining the survival of microbes causing water- borne disease. Mechanisms are well understood. Current research priority is to uhlise improved modelling approaches to quanhfy how these processes will be affected by future changes in stratospheric ozone and other factors that influence UV radiahon in water bodies.

23 WATER QUALITY UV radiahon in water bodies is strongly ahenuated by natural organic materials dissolved in the water. Extreme weather events and permafrost thawing are increasing inputs of dissolved organic macer reducing penetrauon of UV radiauon into waters. ReducUons in ice or snow cover in polar regions are increasing UV radiauon penetrauon in to waters that were previously below the snow or ice. These climate- driven effects will act alongside future changes in stratospheric ozone to affect the UV exposure of aquahc organisms and ecosystems, including fisheries.

24 ECOSYSTEMS AntarcHc stratospheric ozone deplehon is contribuhng to regional climate change in the southern hemisphere. The resulung changes in pacerns of precipitauon, temperature, UV- B radiauon, and wild fires are having measurable impacts in southern hemisphere ecosystems. How long these currently observed effects on ecosystems will persist depends on the Ume- scale of the recovery of AntarcUc ozone. It is likely that any environmental effects of delayed ozone recovery, for example, due to unexpected CFC11 emissions, would be most evident through these climate- driven mechanisms.

25 ECOSYSTEMS - Agriculture Globally, the implementauon of the Montreal Protocol has protected crop producuon from the damaging effects of both elevated UV radiauon and climate change. However, to date, there are no world avoided models of these effects. By protecung climate, the Kigali amendment will also protect crops from the damaging effects of increased temperature and extremes of water availability (drought, floods). Crop responses to climate change can be modified by UV radiauon and vice versa. Effects are expected to vary between species, and growing condiuons

26 Understanding current and evolving drivers of change on food security due to changes in climate, ozone, air quality etc. demands holisuc, inter- disciplinary assessment.

27 MATERIALS DAMAGE Solar UV radiahon damages the funchonal integrity and shortens service lifeumes of plasucs and wood used in construcuon Emerging greener trend: Increased use of wood (renewable, carbon- neutral, low in embodied energy) in place of, or complexed with plasucs UV stabilisers, surface treatments or coahngs have been developed to miugate adverse effects of UV radiauon and climate. Damage by UV radiauon may also constrain the service life of new polymer- based photovoltaics.

28 Report of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, 2018 The assessment of environmental effects, including health, reinforces the muluple benefits of the Montreal Protocol, including the indirect benefit of new scienufic knowledge that now underpins understanding of many environmental challenges