MACIS or: Biodiversity, Climate change and Brussels Breakfast seminar Jake Piper and Elizabeth Wilson

Transcription

1 .. MACIS or: Biodiversity, Climate change and Brussels Breakfast seminar Jake Piper and Elizabeth Wilson

2 Seminar overview 1. the MACIS project overall - some findings from the WPs on impact & modelling 2. the Brookes contribution 3. our thoughts on the Framework research process, working with others across EU 4. where this project may lead

3 The MACIS consortium: SANBI S. Africa See:

4 MACIS objectives EU 25 up to 2050 Baseline: - What impacts of CC on biodiversity? WP1 - What impacts of A & M on biodiversity? WP2* Develop models and methods to identify: Habitats and species at risk vulnerability life history traits capacity for adaptation WP3 Habitats/sites with potential as future sites What are the policy options for CC-resilient biodiversity? WP4 * Dissemination WP5 *

5 What are the CC threats and where greatest? WP1 Main changes: Change in averages - temp and precipitation Extremes change in level and frequency Sea level rise Observed changes on biodiversity At greatest risk: Alps & Arctic (Scandinavia) Mediterranean/southern Europe Coastal regions Densely populated floodplains (EC Green paper: Adapting to CC)

6 How fast is biodiversity responding (e.g. in the UK)? Species groups WP1 Phenology change Assessed period Birds earlier egg-laying (3.5 days/decade) Butterflies first appearance (3.7 days/decade) Plants Migratory birds first flowering (4.5 days/decade in the 1990s) earlier arrival (2.7 days/decade); earlier departure (2.7 days/decade) Fungus increased fruiting period (9.3 days/decade) source: review by Olofsson, (Univ. Lund) et al. - submitted

7 WP2 Impacts of mitigation and adaptation to CC upon biodiversity Mitigation = reducing CO 2 in atmosphere (e.g. lower C-based energy use/c capture) Adaptation = adapting to unavoidable changes Agriculture: low-till cultivation, GM Energy: biofuels, wind turbines, large dams Forestry: afforestation, species selection Built environment: green roofs, urban tree planting, etc. River and coastal flood defence Also: tourism, health, conservation, forestry

8 Mitigation adaptation - biodiversity Positive Effect on biodiversity Negative Win-Lose-Win Wind turbines Win-Lose-Lose Biofuels Improved building insulation Afforestation Low-till cultivation Large dams Forest conservation Win-Win-Win Forest pest control Win-Win-Lose Urban tree planting Green rooftops Increased farmland irrigation Species translocation Sea wall defence Flood control infrastructure Ex-situ conservation New desalination plants Lose-Win-Win Lose-Win-Lose Source: Berry, Paterson, Araujo, Piper and Rounsevell, 2008

9 WP3 Modelling work Models that address biodiversity impacts and are capable of calculating the consequences of changes in driver trends, using IPCC scenarios. further developing BIOMOD, to deal with ensemble forecasting of species distributions. It was then applied to European atlas data. It allows assessment of species temporal turnover, plotting species response curves and testing of the strength of species interactions with predictor variables. We improved models for several taxa and for regional, national and European scales: Mammals: the effects of global climate change on European mammal communities may be most noticeable as a fundamental change in community composition, rather than a loss of species from their current ranges. Bird communities The projections show a moderate turnover - which becomes really significant by large community changes in well diversified regions like central Europe and southern Scandinavia. slow but considerable changes in species richness, with a decrease in central Europe and an increase in Scandinavia from 2020 to Example Lolium perenne in the Alps

10 WP3. Transient plant dispersion with warming L. perenne, +5.8 C by 2100, dispersion: 40 m/yr Colonized surface per 5 years Temperature increase [ K] MigClim model Engler & Guisan (in review), Randin et al. (to be submitted)

11 WP4 Policy Work Package Policy review* at EU and national level of: current state of policy on climate change and biodiversity policy issues surrounding mitigation and adaptation impacts upon biodiversity Policies on CC and biodiversity of major sectors (transport, etc.) And identify: Where are the policy interactions and gaps? How can the assessment process be improved? What are the policy options? What are the research needs? Policies, strategies and plans, EU and Member states

12 WP4.1 What we have, what is needed Policies to protect species, habitats and sites Means of predicting impacts and trends (data, modelling, scenarios) Strategies and action plans on bd protection? Measures (landscape scale/connectivity, etc.)? Authority to ensure policies are followed and measures are implemented (+BU support)? Funding for protection and enforcement?? Space: land, wetland and water space? Policy options research + implementation measures - improvement needed bd - biodiversity

13 Five policy options to be explored by sector (framework suggested by on-going EC policy work) WP4.2 Regulation / legislation Markets: market-based instruments Soft actions (communications, governance) Insurance schemes R&D Taking care to avoid maladaptation, i.e. Inefficient use of resources Measures which displace vulnerability Ineffective measures (i.e. designed for risks that do not subsequently occur)

14 Regulation (command and control) Designation and protection (Natura 2000, National Ecological Network, Netherlands) Zoning (e.g. Space for Water) Compensation (brownfield development, Germany) SANGs (sites of accessible natural greenspace, Thames Basin) Assessment : EIA, SEA, HRA Ambition: Net gain with target?

15 Market-based instruments (preserve and extend choice) Biodiversity offsets, habitat banking Providing incentives or removing disincentives or perverse incentives Reduce market friction via subsidy of renewable energy generation with biodiversity component (e.g. small hydro) Fiscal/price disincentives (e.g. on sale of land with habitat value) Revolving funds for properties with high nature conservation value

16 Soft actions governance, guidance, communications Codes for biodiversity (e.g. via UK Code for Sustainable Homes, and Green Building Council) Codes for low energy use add biodiversity issues? Recognition/awards (European Green Capital + upgrade) Skills development (GIS, taxonomy.) Awareness: Natuurkalender, Springwatch Awards / subsidy for renewable energy use to include biodiversityrelated criteria? Community engagement e.g. via residents groups, wildlife groups, business and CSR

17 3.1 Working with the EC A long and winding road Communication from EC (on biodiversity) 2006 CC/bd issue picked up by DG Research Research prog 2006 and Reports 2008 Interest by DG Env 5/2008 Consln/Int Group 11/2008 CC & biodiversity Communication late 2009?