Brian Vad Mathiesen,

Transcription

1 The Smart Energy System: Sustuainable Energy Systems can solve more challenges than the Climate Crisis Brian Vad Mathiesen; February , Copenhagen, Aalborg University Conference: The Lost Decade? Planning the Future, Plenary Keynote Energy System Challenges and opportunities Lower and lower Renewable Energy investment costs (Electricity especially) Batteries are falling in price Electricity prices are falling (sign of system design failure) and cannot merit investments in new capacity Power plants for back up is closing down (lower operation hours) Questions and strategic decisions How should we use and balance (energy storage) more electricity from renewable energy? How should we re design the energy system and how much renewable energy is needed? (sources: EnergyPLAN cost database) 1

2 Energy System Challenges and opportunities Electricity demands the smallest of the demands Both transport & heating/cooling demands larger Electricity grids are much more expensive than thermal grids/gas grids (pr. capacity) Energy storages have different costs in different sectors and different scales Questions and strategic decisions What are the role of the grids in the future How can energy storage be used across sectors to transform all demands to renewable energy cost effectively? How important are energy savings in the future and what is the balance between electricity or heat savings compared to renewable energy? 30 50% Cost of Heat Savings ( /kwh) Cost of Supplying Heat Amount of Savings (TWh) Source: Mapping and analyses of the current and future heating cooling fuel deployment, DG Energy, 2016 Energy System Challenges and opportunities Bio refinery technology is developing rapidly but bioenergy is a limited resource and can have adverse effects outside the energy sector Transport sector technologies are emerging fast New technologies may develop The international energy context is uncertain Questions and strategic decisions What technologies are key for the transport sector? What is the role of bioenergy in future energy systems? How can key Danish strength help on an international level and what investments are robust in an uncertain future? 2

3 LOW CONSUMPTION LOW COSTS 40 YEARS OF ENERGY PLANNING AND MARKET DESIGN SECURITY OF SUPPLY LOW CO2-EMISSIONS Primary Energy Supply, PJ ' Wind power Biomass Photo Voltaics Danish Potentials Indeks '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 Energiforbrug Danmark Danmark BNP Olie Naturgas Kul og koks Andet Biomasse Vindmøller Olie til transport The long term goal Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, November 2006: We should have a Denmark free of fossil fuels like oil, coal and natural gas 3

4 The results of 40 years of energy planning in Denmark A cost effective energy system A positive effect on the balance of payment Jobs and new companies A high security of supply (so far) Self supply rate Energy import/export & balance of payment billion DKK 1980 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Energy import Olie Kul Biomasse Balance of payment Energy export Naturgas El Eksport af energiteknologi og udstyr 7 BIOMASS POTENTIAL OPTIMIST: 300 PJ PESSIMIST: 165 PJ REALIST: 200 PJ 40 GJ BIO PR. CAPITA IS HIGH GLOBALLY Biomass consumption in Denmark - Combined heat and power, boilers Biomass use in Denmark, PJ 50 PJ import Halm Skovflis Brænde Træpiller Træaffald Affald, bionedbrydeligt Bioolie Biogas Brænde import Skovflis import Træpiller import Bio ethanol import Biodiesel nettoimport Potentials not used 10 PJ wood 30 PJ straw 25 PJ biogas + energy crops 8 4

5 Three focus areas for buildings STOP BEFORE PASSIVE HOUSE STANDARDS 5

6 Smart Energy Systems Download rapport: Pump Hydro Storage 175 /kwh (Source: Electricity Energy Storage Technology Options: A White Paper Primer on Applications, Costs, and Benefits. Electric Power Research Institute, 2010) Thermal Storage 1-4 /kwh (Source: Danish Technology Catalogue, 2012) Oil Tank 0.02 /kwh (Source: Dahl KH, Oil tanking Copenhagen A/S, 2013: Oil Storage Tank. 2013) Natural Gas Underground Storage 0.05 /kwh (Source: Current State Of and Issues Concerning Underground Natural Gas Storage. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 2004) 6

7 0.16 m3 Thermal Storage /MWh (Private house: 160 liter for DKK) Heat energy storage Price ( /MWh) Thermal storage: Price and Size 160 liter 4 m m m m3 Thermal Storage 2500 /MWh (Skagen: 6200 m3 for 5.4 mio. DKK) 4 m3 Thermal Storage 40,000 /MWh (Private outdoor: 4000 m3 for 50,000 DKK) 200,000 m3 Thermal Storage 500 /MWh (Vojens: 200,000 m3 for 30 mio. DKK) HOW TO USE STORAGES LONG TERM.. Three crucial grids in Smart Energy Systems Smart electricity grids Smart thermal grids Smart gas grids High capacity electrolyses (Power-to-gas) More district heating and district cooling Large heat pumps with high capacity (Power-to-heat) CHP, solar thermal, etc. Electricity storage in transport (batteries and electrofuels) Production of green gasses and synthetic fuels 7

8 STATE-OF-THE-ART-KNOWLEDGE ON 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY IN 2050 Savings in Energy Denmand Efficiency improvements in energy production FLEXIBLE TECHNOLOGIES INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEMS Renewable energy sources (RES) Heat Roadmap Europe Methodology GIS Mapping (could be another technology, resource, etc) Energy System Modelling ( BAU (References) District Heating Demands District Heating Resources District Heating Alternatives Results (PES, CO2, Costs) 8

9 50% of the heat demand in Europe can be supplied with district heating ( KEY ROLE FOR CITIES Proven Technology! Renewable Energy vs. District Heating Renewable Energy Share in Heating & Cooling (%) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% District Heating Share (%) Austria Bulgaria Cyprus Denmark Finland Germany Hungary Italy Lithuania Malta Poland Romania Slovenia Sweden Belgium Croatia Czech Republic Estonia France Greece Ireland Latvia Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Slovak Republic Spain United Kingdom 9

10 Today s Heat Demand from Peta 4.2 ( London <5% DH Copenhagen >90% DH Heat Demand Densities 2015 Roma <5% DH Bucharest ~75% DH WP2: Pan European Thermal Atlas: Case Study: Middlesbrough, UK (350,000 People) Heat Demand Suitable for DH 10 PJ/Year Excess Heat 35 PJ/Year 10 km 10

11 Heat synergies map in PETA4 example: Netherlands Heat demands: 296 PJ/y Excess heat: 560 PJ/y District heating share: 5% Renewable energy in heating: 3% - Not a Technical barrier to improve energy efficiency Resources Conversion Demands Smart Energy System: Thermal Storage Bioenergy Fuels Wind etc. Solar etc. Combustion Engines Fluctuating Electricity Combined Heat & Power Fluctuating Heat Electrofuels Heat Pump Fuel Storage Power Exchange Electricity Storage Thermal Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility (Partly) Flexible Electricity Cooling Heating 11

12 Coherent 2050 analyses 100% is possible technically and feasible Future need to focus on transmission between the sectors instead of only between countries A flexible system is robust with regards to costs and biomass consumption. It uses storages intelligently It provides more jobs lower health costs than fossil fuel systems better balance of payments better security of supply State of Green