High Level Forum Globalization and Global Crisis: The Role of Official Statistics Monday, 23 February 2009 ECOSOC Chamber 3:00-6:00 pm

Transcription

1 High Level Forum Globalization and Global Crisis: The Role of Official Statistics Monday, 23 February 29 ECOSOC Chamber 3: 6: pm Globalization and Global Crisis: Some issues on Climate Change Øystein Olsen Director General, Statistics Norway

2 1 High Level Forum Globalization and Global Crisis: Some issues on Climate Change Øystein Olsen Director general, Statistics Norway What do we know? With almost certainty: Due to man made emissions, the temperature has d with.8 degrees and will continue to With some uncertainty: If GHG emissions go on unchecked, temperature will likely by between 1,1 to 6,3 degrees With a lot of uncertainty What are the global costs of temperature? C The concentration of CO 2 and mean global temperature: Global temperature (Hadley center) CO2concentration (Mauna Loa) ppm

3 Climate and the financial crisis any connection? Globalization we have reaped the benefits are we now paying the price? Short term (FC) versus long term (CC) The focus has already changed.? Can the financial crisis initiate a faster restructuring? New investments should internalize (future) costs of emissions Two fundamental questions 1) Are market instruments sufficient to hedge against catastrophic events? Weitzman (28) 2) Can a stabilization of global CO 2 emissions be combined with developing catching up? 2

4 Fundamental drivers 1 CO2emissions per capita as in IPCC's A1scenario (business as usual) World population Global CO2 9 emissions with Temperature ºC Tonnes CO2 cuntries Billions CO2concentration with Statistics Norway reduce emissions 1 CO2emissions per capita as in IPCC's A1scenario (business as usual) Global CO2 emissions with 3. Temperature ºC Tonnes CO CO2concentration with 2. cuntries Statistics Norway

5 follow 1 CO2emissions per capita as in IPCC's A1scenario (business as usual) Global CO2 emissions with 3. Temperature ºC Tonnes CO CO2concentration with 2. cuntries Statistics Norway follow Tonnes CO2 1 1 CO2emissions per capita as in IPCC's A1scenario (business as usual) cuntries Statistics Norway. 8 LESSONS: Global CO2 7 emissions with Even extensive and rapid 6 emission reductions in the industrialized will have a very limited effect on global warming Global warming can not be prevented without large emissions reductions in the developing 8 CO2concentration with 7 6 How to avoid that abatement policies in the developing world will pull down their highly necessary economic development? Prepare for adaptation! Temperature ºC

6 What needs to be done? Broad international environmental agreements, to control global emissions Systems for monitoring compliance What will be the role of official statistics? 9 Central elements of Kyoto II Eliminating existing energy subsidies Costs efficient policy instruments applied across, sectors and gases Innovation and adoption of climatefriendly technologies, to lower future mitigations costs Pricing carbon may foster major technological breakthroughs Crucial question: will markets do the job?

7 Pricing carbon is needed for major technological breakthroughs GDP costs and CO 2 price levels with and without breakthrough technologies (4ppm CO2 concentration stabilisation scenario) % change in GDP with respect to baseline ppm major breakthroughs 4ppm Source: WITCH model simulations. (OECD) Can markets do the job? Pricing carbon alone may not induce sufficiently large (incremental) energy efficiency gains uncertainty may discourage investors..and market failures undermining R&D call for specific R&D policies A global R&D policy is needed Many unresolved areas; transportation sector, reliance of fossil fuels for energy production etc Can investment decisions be based on current prices on emission permits? Necessary to establish a credible long term expected price path 6

8 The role of official statistics The Pressure Calculation of emissions based on energy statistics etc Coherence, definitions and standards But monitoring should be left to regulatory authorities! Driving forces Statistics provide necessary information for forecasting and policy analysis Policy measures Taxes and subsidies part of traditional statistical systems Potentially new tasks: Emission permits, regulations Mitigation GHG abatement technology investments? Adaptation Can climate effects be identified? Potential damage 7

9 Thank You for your attention! 8