Transformational Climate Science. The future of climate change research following the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Transcription

1 Transformational Climate Science The future of climate change research following the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

2 Working Group II The challenge and impacts of adaptation #climate2014

3 The challenge and impacts of adaptation Professor Richard Betts Chair in Climate Impacts, University of Exeter Head of Climate Impacts, Met Office Hadley Centre

4 Climate change impacts on global vegetation and hydrology: an integrated view Prof Richard Betts Chair in Climate Impacts, University of Exeter Head of Climate Impacts Research, Met Office Hadley Centre Lead Author, IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch4, Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems

5 Projected change in streamflow at 2 C warming*: Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) *Relative to Schewe et al (2013)

6 Projected changes in vegetation by , RCP8.5: 3 ISI-MIP vegetation models Friend et al (2013)

7 Coupled vegetation and hydrology models

8 Change in runoff (streamflow) vs in ISI-MIP hydrology and ecosystem models Davie et al (2013)

9 Change in runoff (streamflow) vs in ISI-MIP hydrology and ecosystem models Davie et al (2013)

10 Change in runoff (streamflow) vs in ISI-MIP hydrology and ecosystem models Davie et al (2013)

11 Change in runoff (streamflow) vs in ISI-MIP hydrology and ecosystem models Davie et al (2013)

12 % of land Will the land become drier or wetter? Percentage of global land undergoing decreased runoff by 2100: MacPDM hydrology model driven by HadGEM2-ES climate change HadGEM RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 MacPDM driven by HadGEM2 climate 10 0 Radiative forcing Source: AVOID project

13 Changes in global runoff simulated within HadGEM2-ES

14 % of land Will the land become drier or wetter? Comparison of hydrological changes simulated within Earth System Model and offline hydrology model HadGEM RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5 MacPDM driven by HadGEM2 climate Radiative forcing

15 Climate, vegetation & water cycle links Affected by weather / climate Affect weather / climate Also affected by CO 2 concentration

16 % change in net irrigation requirements, vs , SRES A2 for 11 major crops 19 GCMs, 1 veg model Current irrigation areas & management practice Konzmann et al (2013)

17 Estimates of transient climate response

18 CO 2 concentration at time of reaching 2 C in SRES A1B scenario: 58-member Earth System model ensemble (HadCM3) Small CO 2 effects on vegetation & hydrology Large CO 2 effects on vegetation & hydrology

19 Summary Projected impacts of climate change on vegetation and hydrology depend on each other In recent studies, hydrological impacts smaller in ecosystem models than hydrological models In some cases, coupling with vegetation and/or climate models can change sign of hydrological impact Importance of CO 2 physiological effects relative to climate depends on: Plant physiological processes (WG2 & WG1) Climate sensitivity (WG1) Greenhouse gas mix CO 2 and non-co 2 GHGs (WG3) To be examined further in EU Project HELIX