Framing Regional Priorities: Critical Predictions and Urgent Actions

Transcription

1 Framing Regional Priorities: Critical Predictions and Urgent Actions Heidi Stiller NOAA

2 1976

3 1998 Source:

4 2016

5 2016

6 CRITICAL PREDICTIONS

7 Warmer Temperatures Sea Level Rise Extreme Rain Events More Water? Less Water?

8 Recent Scientific Predictions National Climate Assessment (NCA) Southeast Chapter (2014) NCA Sea Level Rise Technical Report (2012) Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel Recommended Projection of Sea Level Rise in the Tampa Bay Region (2015) The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment (2016)

9 NCA Southeast Region Key Messages (2014) Increasing temperatures and the associated increase in frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events will affect public health, natural and built environments, energy, agriculture, and forestry. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to both natural and built environments and to the regional economy. Decreased water availability, exacerbated by population growth and land-use change, will continue to increase competition for water and affect the region s economy and unique ecosystems. [But Tampa Bay area may see increase.]

10 Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel Recommended Projection of SLR (2015) Graphic Relative Sea Level Change (RSLC) Scenarios for St. Petersburg, Florida, as calculated using the NOAA projections and regional corrections. (USACE, 2015)

11 Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel Recommended Projection of SLR (2015) Relative Sea Level Change Scenarios for St. Petersburg, Florida in Feet above Local Mean Sea Level (LMSL)

12 The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States (2016) Changing the severity or frequency of health problems that are already affected by climate or weather factors Creating unprecedented or unanticipated health threats in places where they have not previously occurred

13 Observations Match Predictions: NOAA s State of the Climate Report 2015 Warmest year on record Highest global sea level on record Arctic s lowest maximum sea ice extent Greenhouse gas concentrations rose to new record high values

14 Observations Match Predictions: National Climate Assessment (2014) Longer, hotter summers Heavier downpours Changes in length and severity of seasonal allergies Climate disruptions to water supply and agriculture

15 Billion Dollar Disasters

16 Observations Match Predictions: Louisiana Flooding (August 2016)

17 The Past Is No Longer A Good Predictor of the Future

18 Critical Predictions: Human Dimensions Changing demographics Coastal growth and development means even bigger economic impacts Vulnerable populations have less capacity to prepare, respond, and recover Climate migration

19 Critical Predictions: Human Dimensions Public opinion: Growing numbers concerned and want government to act Innovations (e.g., Renewables, Telework, Better Pumps) Growing market demand for resilience

20 Policy Developments Federal Flood Risk Management Standard Department of Housing and Urban Development Rule Economic Development Administration Requirements

21 Policy Developments: Natural and Nature- Based Infrastructure USACE Proposed Living Shorelines Nationwide Permit DOT Green Infrastructure Highway Projects FEMA Climate Resilient Mitigation Activities Aquifer Storage and Recovery Floodplain and Stream Restoration Flood Diversion and Storage Green Infrastructure Methods

22 UREGENT ACTIONS

23 1. Keep Up With the Science

24 2. Ongoing Vulnerability Assessment Natural, Built, and Social Environment Scenario Planning

25 3. Engage Effectively Stakeholder Engagement Social Science Informed Risk Communication

26 4. Pursue Win-Wins and No Regrets

27 5. Apply a Climate Lens to Existing Work (a.k.a. Don t Get Overwhelmed)

28 6. Funding: Tap Existing Sources and Watch for Innovation Source: Dept. of Housing and Urban Development (2016)

29 7. Learn From Others

30 Actions Keep Up With the Science Ongoing Vulnerability Assessment Engage Effectively Pursue Win-Wins and No Regrets Apply a Climate Lens to Existing Work Funding: Tap Existing and Watch for Innovation Learn From Others

31

32 Questions?