INTEGRATED FORECAST AND MANAGEMENT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INFORM A Demonstration Project

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1 CPASW March 23, 26 INTEGRATED FORECAST AND MANAGEMENT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INFORM A Demonstration Project Present: Eylon Shamir HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER GEORGIA WATER RESOURCES INSTITUTE

2 INFORM: Integrated Forecast and Management in Northern California Hydrologic Research Center & Georgia Water Resources Institute Sponsors: CALFED Bay Delta Authority California Energy Commission National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Collaborators: California Department of Water Resources California-Nevada River Forecast Center Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency U.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

3 Vision Statement Increase efficiency of water use in Northern California using climate, hydrologic and decision science

4 Goal and Objectives Demonstrate the utility of climate and hydrologic forecasts for water resources management in Northern California Implement integrated forecast-management systems for the Northern California reservoirs using real-time data Perform tests with actual data and with management input

5 Major Resevoirs in Nothern California Application Area Degrees North Latitude Trinity River Trinity Shasta Shasta Sacramen to River Pit River Oroville Oroville Feather River N. Fork Ame rican River Capacity of Major Reservoirs (million acre-feet): Trinity Shasta Oroville Folsom Folsom Folsom Degrees West Longitude Elevation (meters)

6 The hydrologic objectives complexity Objectives Comply with water supply to the delta Flood mitigation and control Water resources (2/3 of California potable water) Fishery (Salmon hatching) (manage water temperature) Agriculture in the Central Valley (7 million acres of irrigated AG) Hydro power generation In-stream ecology Recreation Issues Increasing Demand (California s Growing economy) Aging infrastructure Climate Change in the Sierra Nevada Environmental Regulations

7 Utility of hydrologic forecast: A retrospective study for Folsom Lake Compare between: current operational rules (nowcast with no forecast) and forecast was generated every 5-day with daily resolution for 2-month horizon from: NWS procedure for Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) ESP Monthly estimates of precipitation and temperature from two Global Climate Models (GCM) a) Canadian model (CGCM) b) Max Plank Institute of Meteorology (ECHAM) Perfect forecast scenario (retrospective) data Georgakakos et al. 25 EOS Carpenter and Georgakakos 21 J. of Hydrology Yao and Georgakakos 21 J. of Hydrology

8 Results of operation based on rigid operational rules SPILLAGE (BCF) Feasibility Studies Benefits For Folsom Reservoir Benefit dependent on: the quality 8 of forecast and the decision OPERATIONAL ESP CGCM ECHAM 7 PERFECT MAXIMUM FLOOD DAMAGE (M$) OPERATIONAL ESP CGCM ECHAM PERFECT 6 ENERGY VALUE (M$) OPERATIONAL ESP CGCM ECHAM PERFECT Carpenter and Georgakakos (21); Yao and Georgakakos (21); Georgakakos et al., (24)

9 The problem Synoptic and climatic forecast contain uncertainty The effective use of these needs to explicitly account for the uncertainty both in the forecast and the operational management Reservoir is operated based on nowcast information and under institutional constrains Rigid rules that provide list of actions based on current information

10 Demonstration Concept Fixed Operation Rules Real Time Input ACTUAL System Characteristics VIRTUAL Flexible Trade-offs Measurable Benefits Other Benefits Decision Maker Measurable Benefits Other Benefits

11 The modeling Components Global Forecast System (GFS) (1 x 1 ) 8 traces, 6-hour time step, Updated 4-time per day -16 days lead time Climate Forecasts System (CFS) 16-day to-9-month lead time Updated daily Downscale Precipitation Orographic model (1 x 1) km Radiative transfer Surface temperature Conditional ESP Semi distributed Snow and Hydrologic model 16-day to 9-month Ensembles 12-hr/1-day resolution Ensemble Hydrologic Model Input

12 DSS Multi Objective and temporal scale

13 Precipitation Downscaling Performance Measures

14 Temperature Downscaling - Tests

15 Examples of Hydrologic Performance Analysis Time Series OROVILLE DAILY FLOW - CMS Water Year Water Year Water Year Water Year 1964 CMS Water Year Water Year Water Year Water Year Water Year Water Year 197

16 Examples of Hydrologic Performance Analysis Monthly Climatology.5.45 Observed Simulated.5.45 Observed Simulated Montly fraction Folsom Montly fraction Oroville Month (Oct through Sep) Month (Oct through Sep).5.45 Observed Simulated.5.45 Observed Simulated Montly fraction Trinity Montly fraction Shasta Month (Oct through Sep) Month (Oct through Sep)

17 SAMPLE RELIABILITY DIAGRAMS

18 Conclusion of Hydrologic Performance Analysis INFORM hydrology model performed well and captured the hydrologic response with respect to timing and magnitude, and for various temporal scales Performance analogous to what was found for the operational CNRFC hydrology forecast model running with the same parameters Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) have been validated over the historical horizon for all reservoir sites

19 Sample of INFORM Product Global Forecast System (GFS) Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)

20 Web Dissemination

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22 Forecast issued: March 9, 26 22: PST

23 Forecast issued: March 9, 26 22: PST

24 FUTURE PLANS INFORM quasi-operational testing during Winter 25 and performance assessment Use the INFORM structure for assessing climate and demand change impacts on management for conservation, flood control, downstream objectives and energy production What-if simulations for training, preparation and modification of current operational procedures