Cheshire County Recyclers Keene MRF Meeting February 21, 2018

Transcription

1 Cheshire County Recyclers Keene MRF Meeting February 21, 2018 Northeast Resource Recovery Association A Recycling Non-Profit Working Together to Make Recycling Strong!

2 A Recycling Non-Profit Working Together to Make Recycling Strong!

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23 Hannah Zhao Senior Economist, Global Recovered Paper RISI Hannah has specialized in the world recovered paper markets for RISI since January She writes for the World Recovered Paper Monitor and RISI s 5-Year and 15- year recovered paper forecasts. She also provides single- and multi-client studies on recovered paper markets. Hannah holds a Master of Science degree in Resource Economics from University of Rhode Island, a Master of Science degree in Climate Change from Chinese Academy of Sciences, and her Bachelor of Science degree in Geography from Beijing Normal University, China.

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26 The China General Administration of Customs announced the National Sword 2017 program in February 2017 to crack down on illegal solid waste imports, including recovered paper. Then during the 34th meeting of the Central Leading Group for Deepening Overall Reform held by President Xi Jinping in April, the program of "Prohibition on Import of (selected) Solid Waste in Promotion of Reform on Solid Waste Imports Management" was reviewed and approved. After that, China notified the World Trade Organization (WTO) in July that it will ban imports of 24 types of solid wastes, including unsorted waste paper, mainly mixed paper and board, by the end of Meanwhile, China finalized a plan to implement the "Prohibition on Import of (selected) Solid Waste in Promotion of Reform on Solid Waste Imports Management". Although the plan set up the basic framework for China's new solid waste import policy, many of the details of the new policy are still being developed.

27 As we approach the end of the year, China's import quota for the next year becomes a key factor in determining future developments of the global recovered paper markets. Will there be a severe cut in China's total import quota for 2018? There has been no official news or announcement on this yet, but we think it's not unlikely. After all, China imported about 6 million tons of mixed paper every year during The mixed paper ban could easily take this part of recovered paper imports out of the quota. But will China allocate more import quota to OCC, ONP or high grades of recovered paper to make up for the cut in mixed paper? Will Chinese domestic collection grow fast enough to fulfill its demand? Where will the exporting regions' recovered paper tonnage rejected by China go in the future? Who could take more recovered paper in the future when China tries to cut its imports? Will China buy more virgin pulp to run its paper and board machines? Or will China feel more comfortable importing more finished paper and board products instead of recovered paper in the future? All of these questions are of great importance to not only the global recovered paper markets but also the paper industry in general.

28 China suspended the approval of recovered paper import permits in late May. Many mills failed the environmental inspections targeting processors and consumers of imported recovered paper in July and were subjected to various penalties, with some mills even having their import permits revoked. The official mixed paper import ban and the import permit problem started to hit the global markets in July and August. With the reduction of Chinese imports, prices in the USA and Europe, the two largest recovered paper exporters, fell significantly in August and September. In contrast, prices for domestically collected recovered paper, particularly OCC, in China skyrocketed as a result of the severe supply shortage. Paper mills had to ask for more recovered paper from domestic suppliers as they partially lost access to imported grades. Domestically collected OCC prices surged by more than RMB 1,000/ton in China in just two months, while import prices for OCC sourced from different regions crashed by nearly $100/tonne. Prices for finished paper and board products, particularly packaging grades, surged as well, due in part to the rising fiber costs. Some mills had to take extended downtime because of the lack of affordable fiber supply. China even started to import more finished paper and board products to meet the strong demand in the current busy season for paper packaging.

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30 Projected Disposal Capacity Table 5: Projected Disposal Capacity (Tons Per Year) Permitted Capacity End of current permitted capacity Lifetime of LF Municipality Active Landfills Bourne 30, ,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 Carver 101, , , , , ,125 0 Chicopee 365, , ,000 91, Dartmouth 115, , , , , , ,000 Middleborough 60, ,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 Nantucket 26, ,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 Southbridge 405, , , , Taunton 120, , , , , ,120 0 Westminster 390, , , , , , ,000 Municipal Waste Combustors Agaw am 131, , , , , , ,400 Haverhill 602, , , , , , ,250 Millbury 529, , , , , , ,575 North Andover 460, , , , , , ,500 Pittsfield 84,000 84,000 84,000 84,000 84,000 84,000 84,000 Rochester 1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000 Saugus 460, , , , , , ,500 5,131,070 3,518,225 TOTAL PERMITTED CAPACITY 5,131,070 5,006,070 4,337,320 3,724,345 3,604,225 3,578,225 TOTAL POTENTIAL CAPACITY 5,131,070 5,006,070 4,757,320 4,360,470 4,360,470 4,139,225 KEY: Permitted Capacity Number w ithout shading Potential Additional Capacity Number w ith shading ESTIMATED TOTAL POTENTIAL AVAILABLE CAPACITY 4,894,859 4,788,166 4,575,847 4,237,118 4,237,118 4,048,276 85% of potential for LFs and 100 % of combustion capacity actual combustion amount will vary slightly year to year Total Potential Landfill Capacity 1,376,634 1,269,941 1,057, , , ,051 Actual 2015 disposal for MWCs is actual tonnage burned minus post combustion metal recovery. MWC disposal capacity is not a fixed tonnage amount, but rather a function of the facility's air permit and may vary slightly % Landfill Capacity used 85% 30

31 Landfill Tipping Fees for MSW by Year ( ) $90.00 $80.00 $70.00 $60.00 Mid Atlantic Midwest Northeast South South Central West West Central Entire US $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $ Mid Atlantic Midw est Northeast South South Central West West Central Entire US Source: Waste Business Journal, San Diego, CA.

32 危机 WHEN WRITTEN IN CHINESE, THE WORD CRISIS IS COMPOSED OF TWO CHARACTERS. ONE REPRESENTS DANGER AND THE OTHER REPRESENTS OPPORTUNITY John F. Kennedy

33 In August, new quality requirements were announced. And most recently, the lack of required government-issued import quotas has prohibited most Chinese mills from issuing orders for their mills. Individually, any of these policies could wreak havoc on the global recycling markets. Combined, they have created chaos in recycling programs across the globe. The Global Recycling Industry has been frantically trying to understand what to expect in the next weeks and months and into We ve asked the Chinese Government for clarity. As an industry, we ve enlisted the U.S. Government to intervene. We ve written letters to the World Trade Organization. We ve even offered to help China set up successful recycling programs while encouraging a phased-in approach to reducing their imports. Not only have we had no response, but orders from for recyclables from that country are slowing down further. With very little communication from the Chinese Government, it difficult to plan. Will things ease up tomorrow? Next week? Next month? What will 2018 look like? No one knows. In the meantime, we may have some road bumps. Recyclers may scramble for markets. Tensions will be high. But, by working together and communicating consistently, we will get through this and will be stronger than when we started. We will get past our short-term challenges and will develop new solutions that will result in stronger and more sustainable recycling programs.

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37 Ben Harvey is the president of E. L. Harvey & Sons Inc., a full service waste and recycling firm that provides services to municipal, commercial and industrial corporations throughout eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island. He negotiates for the sale of recyclables to consumers and the shipments of waste to disposal sites. Ben has presented to, and shared his knowledge of the industry to thousands of business and association leaders, through such diverse groups as Waste Cap of Massachusetts, MassRecycle, Detachable Container Association, National Recycling Coalition, Paper Stock Industries, Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Environmental Business Council and at national forums such as Waste Expo and ISRI conventions. Ben will share his vast accumulation of knowledge of all facets of the recycling and waste stream business, its history, and, most importantly, its future.

38 MARKET PREDICTIONS The future markets are more likely than not to be volatile for some time. Beyond that, major unforeseen events could occur totally undermining the stability of the recycling industry.

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