Jean Laherrere 3 March US primary energy in quad

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1 Jean Laherrere March 9 US primary energy in quad USDOE EIA MER reports each month the primary energy since 99 in quad = US quadrillion = E Btu = PBtu (peta) SI quadrillion = million power = E = Y The Btu (British Thermal Unit illegal in the European Union since 9, replaced by the Joule) is equal to J and quad ~. EJ (exajoule) ~ Mtoe From EIA Monthly energy review US primary energy production displays the large importance of fossil fuels and the largest production is natural gas, overpassing coal (first 9-. US primary energy production 9 quad 7 7 Mtoe Jean Laherrere Feb 9 Total Primary Energy Total Fossil Fuels Natural Gas (Dry) Crude Oil Coal 7 Total Renewable Energy Nuclear Electric Power NG Plant Liquids Biomass Energy Hydroelectric Power Wind Energy Solar Energy Geothermal Energy PE Mtoe US fossil fuels production in quad displays a large increase of 9 %/a for NGPL since 9, of 7. %/a for crude oil since and only %/a for natural gas since. Pour crude oil the rise 9-97 was.%/a and the decline 9-. %/a, pretty close. The US oil production is a good example of symmetry because the high number of oil producers acting in random.

2 quad NG + NGPL rise. %/a rise %/a Natural Gas (Dry) rise. %/a decline, %/a rise 7.%/a Crude Oil Coal rise, %/a rise 9 %/a NG Plant Liquids crude oil Mtoe US fossil fuels production in quad in NGPL = 9% of NG NG+NGPL = 9 % PE NG+NGPL = % crude oil 7 7 Mtoe Jean Laherrere Feb 9 The same display in log scale allows to compare slopes. NGLP production is similar to NG production, except for the shale gas NG + NGPL Natural Gas (Dry) Crude Oil Coal Natural Gas Plant Liquids US fossil fuels production in quad log scale in NGPL = 9% of NG NG+NGPL = 9 % PE NG+NGPL = % crude oil quad log scale Jean Laherrere Feb 9 Crude oil - Crude oil (including lease condensate), after a peak in 97, in 9 (Alaska) is presently increasing since with the LTO (light tight oil instead of the poorly called shale oil). Its ultimate is estimated at a round value of quads = Gtoe = Gb. Comparing to the crude oil ultimate in Gb a value of 9 quads is closer. But a quads ultimate shows more the uncertainty of the ultimate, with only one significant digit. With such ultimate of quads, the crude oil production will be in about quads when USDOE.EIA AEO 9 forecasts the double = quads.

3 US crude oil production & forecast AEO9 & U = quad increase %/a decline. %/a quad crude oil AEO9 U = quad CP crude quad U = quad CP quad Jean Laherrere Feb 9 The HL of the crude oil is presently rising with the LTO but its future decline will be parallel to the trend 9-, trending towards the rounded quads,,,,,,,,,,,,, US HL of crude oil production - 9-, Jean Laherrere Feb 9 cumulative NGPL production quad NGPL production 99- The natural gas plant liquids production has increased since 9 at. %/a until 9, then at. %/a until 97, then almost flat and from increasing at 9 %/a.

4 Mb/d,,,,, US NGPL production in Mb/d & quad US NGPL Mb/d increase. %/a increase. %/a increase 9 %/a NGPL quad,,,7,,,7,,,7 quad, Jean Laherrere Feb 9 NGPL ultimate is estimated at quads, leading to a peak around and a production in of. quads when EIA/AEO9 forecasts 7. quads, more the double! US NGPL production & forecast AEO9 & U = quad 9 7 AEO9 U = quad CP quad U = quad CP quad Jean Laherrere Feb 9 The HL of NGPF production trends towards quads, assuming a parallel decline with the HL decline 9-

5 US HL of NGPL production in quad 9-9- Jean Laherrere Feb 9 cumulative NGPL production quad Natural gas production 9- US NG annual production in quad is close to the value in Tcf. Production has increased by %/a since 9 up to 97 and again by %/a since US NG production in quad & Tcf & Tcf NG quad NG dry Tcf increase %/a increase %/a increase %/a Jean Laherrere Feb 9 US NG ultimate is estimated at 7 quads from HL assuming parallelism with the period 97-

6 , US HL of NG production 9-97-,,,, Jean Laherrere Feb 9 cumulative NGPL production quad US NG production will peak around and for the ultimate 7 quads will be in at quads against a forecast of AEO9 of quads: more than double US NG production & forecast AEO9 & U = 7 quad 7 NG quad AEO9 U = 7 quad CP NG quad U = 7 quad 7 7 CP quad Jean Laherrere Feb 9 Adding the last three forecasts, crude oil + NGPL + NG productions will be in at quads against 77 quads for AEO9: more than double. It means that, if I am right; the US energy future is bleak, back to the pre-. But since 9 US NG production is much higher in energy than crude oil production.

7 7 US crude oil + NG + NGPL production in quad & forecast AEO9 AEO 9 U = quad all U = 7 quad NG dry U = quad crude oil U = quad NGPL Jean Laherrere Feb 9 The US fossil fuels price in $/MBtu has changed drastically between sources and with time. Prices are irrational and very hard to forecast US crude oil + NG + NGPL price in $/MBtu NG Henry Hub $/MBtu NGPL $/MBtu WTI $/MBtu $/MBtu Jean Laherrere Feb 9 The US oil and gas production converted with such prices and using CPI inflation into $ and the NG production is worth much less than crude oil, despite being higher in energy. NGPL production values is presently about half NG production value. 7

8 US crude oil, NG & NGPL production value in $ crude oil G$ NG G$ NGPL G$ G$ Jean Laherrere Feb 9 AEO9 forecast of crude oil and NG prices in $ until is also displayed in log scale $/MBtu US crude oil & NG price S & forecast AEO9 $ = NG Henry Hub $ AEO9 $ WTI $ AEO9 $ $/MBtu log scale US crude oil & NG price S & forecast AEO9 log scale NG Henry Hub $ AEO9 $ WTI $ AEO9 $ Jean Laherrere Feb Jean Laherrere Feb 9 The price ratio oil versus gas is striking: it was about 7 in 9 declining slowly towards, being the equality, in, but with the shale plays it jumped into in, presently around and forecasted to be from to, which is strange to me of not trending towards again. Energy equality is not the goal of USDOE/EIA.

9 7 US crude oil /NG price ratio & forecast AEO9 oil/ng AEO9 ratio price crude oil / NG Jean Laherrere Feb 9 In fact gas is wasted and undervalued and flared (or vented) because often associated with oil. The US crude oil/ng price ratio correlates roughly with the US NG flaring (as Texas flaring) and since with the North Dakota flaring. 7 US crude oil/natural gas price ratio & gas flaring oil/gas price ratio & US, Texas flaring % oil/gas ratio US flared/gross % Texas flaring/gross % ND flaring % ND flaring % Jean Laherrere Feb 9 It seems hard to believe that the oil/ng price ratio will stay high for the next s, meaning that NG will be continued to be wasted, flared and underestimated Conclusion US oil and gas production in energy and in value is a better way to display the truth than the production in volume. USDOE/EIA/AEO9 forecasts for oil and gas production are the double of my forecasts: US oil and gas future could be difficult! 9