10/14/14. Sec on C: Carbon Cycle. Sec on C: Carbon Cycle. Sec on C: Carbon Cycle. GEOG 313/513 Fall GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014

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1 Sec on C: Carbon Cycle Outline C.1 Introduc on C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturba ons to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014 Global Climate Change 1 Prof J. Hicke Sec on C: Carbon Cycle Learning outcomes explain the major stocks of the global carbon cycle understand the major sources and sinks of the carbon cycle and the me scales over which they operate describe the human perturba ons to the carbon cycle and where the emi ed carbon is going GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014 Global Climate Change 2 Prof J. Hicke Outline C.1 Introduc on Sec on C: Carbon Cycle C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturba ons to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014 Global Climate Change 3 Prof J. Hicke 1

2 Carbon stocks and fluxes IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 4 Prof J. Hicke Carbon stocks in Carbon ecosystems stocks (plants and soil) Global Climate Change 5 Prof J. Hicke Carbon stocks cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/global_carbon/carbon_documenta on.html Global Climate Change 6 Prof J. Hicke 2

3 Carbon fluxes GPP or NPP (and R?) Global Climate Change 7 Prof J. Hicke Forest disturbances and the C cycle carbon management Sink of C from atmosphere Source of C to atmosphere Cumulative impact: equivalent to 5 years of emissions from Canada s transportation sector Kurz et al. 2008, Nature Kurz et al., Nature, Global Climate Change Slide courtesy W. Prof Kurz, J. Hicke CFS Sea- to- Air Carbon Flux to sea to air cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/ldeo_underway_database/pco2_flux_rate_maps.html Global Climate Change 9 Prof J. Hicke 3

4 Long- term Carbon Cycle Global Climate Change 10 Prof J. Hicke Carbon stocks and fluxes IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 11 Prof J. Hicke Outline C.1 Introduc on Sec on C: Carbon Cycle C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturba ons to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014 Global Climate Change 12 Prof J. Hicke 4

5 Global Climate Change 13 Prof J. Hicke Annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 Global Climate Change dougrobbins.blogspot.com/2012/04/modeling- global- co2- cycles.html 14 Prof J. Hicke Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 36.1 ± 1.8 GtCO 2 in 2013, 61% over 1990 Projection for 2014 : 37.0 ± 1.9 GtCO 2, 65% over 1990 Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC likely range) Estimates for 2011, 2012, and 2013 are preliminary Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget

6 Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios Emissions are on track for ºC likely increase in temperature above pre-industrial Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014 Over 1000 scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report are shown Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014 Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute) The top four emitters in 2013 covered 58% of global emissions China (28%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (7%) Bunkers fuel used for international transport is 3% of global emissions Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals is 3% of global emissions Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014 Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita) China s per capita emissions have passed the EU28 and are 45% above the global average Per capita emissions in 2013 Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget

7 Size of country propor onal to total CO2 emissions in 2009 Global Climate Change 19 Prof J. Hicke CO2e emissions by sector (source) US EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: , 2014 IPCC AR4, 2007 Global Global Climate Change 20 Prof J. Hicke US emissions by consumers of fossil fuels EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: , 2014 State of the Carbon Cycle Report, 2007 Global Climate Change 21 Prof J. Hicke 7

8 Tropical deforesta on naindependent.com/socialissues/environment/ amazonian- deforesta on- soars/ mes.com/reversal- fortune- deforesta on- amazon- rainforest- increased- 28- over- past- year Global Climate Change 22 ling- Deforesta on- In- Indonesia- One- Firm- At- A- Time Prof J. Hicke Deforesta on pa erns Global Climate upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/fires_and_deforesta on_on_the_amazon_fron er%2c_rondonia%2c_brazil_- _August_12%2C_2007.jpg Change 23 Prof J. Hicke Arc of deforesta on (red) in Amazon h p://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/amazon/problems/ Global Climate Change 24 Prof J. Hicke 8

9 Historical Emissions from Land Use Change Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation Africa Latin America GtonC y -1 (16% total emissions) 1.20 S. & SE Asia Pg C yr SUM R.A. Houghton, unpublished Global Climate Change 25 Prof J. Hicke Land-Use Change Emissions Global land-use change emissions are estimated 3.3 ± 1.8 GtCO 2 during The data suggests a general decrease in emissions since 1990 Indonesian peat fires Three different estimation methods have been used, indicated here by different shades of grey Land-use change also emits CH 4 and N 2 O which are not shown here Source: Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014 Total Global Emissions by Source Land-use change was the dominant source of annual CO 2 emissions until around 1950 Coal consumption continues to grow strongly Others: Emissions from cement production and gas flaring Source: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget

10 Sec on C: Carbon Cycle Outline C.1 Introduc on C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturba ons to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014 Balancing the global carbon budget Na onal Geographic, 2009 Global Climate Change 29 Prof J. Hicke Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions ( average) 32.4±1.6 GtCO 2 /yr 91% 15.8±0.4 GtCO 2 /yr 44% + 3.3±1.8 GtCO 2 /yr 9% 29% 10.6±2.9 GtCO 2 /yr Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 26% 9.4±1.8 GtCO 2 /yr Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget

11 Carbon uptake by land and ocean IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 31 Prof J. Hicke Global carbon budget IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 32 Prof J. Hicke Global Carbon Budget Emissions are partitioned between the atmosphere, land, and ocean Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget

12 Global Carbon Budget The cumulative contributions to the Global Carbon Budget from 1870 Contributions are shown in parts per million (ppm) sources sinks Figure concept from Shrink That Footprint Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014 North American carbon budget State of the Carbon Cycle Report, 2007 Global Climate Change 35 Prof J. Hicke Oceans: Sinks, with small uncertain es Global Climate Change IPCC, AR5, 36 WGI, 2013 Prof J. Hicke 12

13 Land: Sinks, with uncertain es Global Climate Change IPCC, AR5, 37 WGI, 2013 Prof J. Hicke Large uncertain es in model results for uptake of carbon on land IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 38 Prof J. Hicke Large uncertain es when modeling future vegeta on type columns: different GCMs rows: different assump ons about vegeta on (amount of CO2 and its effect on photosynthesis) Lapola et al., 2009 Global Climate Change 39 Prof J. Hicke 13

14 Carbon stocks and fluxes IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 40 Prof J. Hicke 14