Pre-Disaster : Discussion on SE Asian Climate, Risk Management Pre disaster stage: prevention and preparedness (a case for systems thinking)

Transcription

1 Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Development (DRM-SD) Capacity Building Pre-Disaster : Discussion on SE Asian Climate, Risk Management Pre disaster stage: prevention and preparedness (a case for systems thinking) Robert Steele Senior Associate - AtKisson Group 1

2 Session Contents Part 1: Where are we heading? Collapse or Transformation: Risk, Resilience and Sustainability Part 2: Pre-disaster Risk Management: The case for taking a Systems Approach 2

3 Part 1 Where are we heading? Collapse or Transformation Risk, Resilience and Sustainability 3

4 Risks 4

5 The laws of nature and biology The trajectories of current trends Sustainability is not about the Earth. The Earth is Fine. Sustainability is about the survival of Humanity (the human species) going forward- our children s and their children s future This is what is at risk! The boundaries of the planet Human nature, human systems...

6 Context: The Entire World System is Changing With Incredible Speed Source: International Geosphere-Biosphere Program; see The Sustainability Transformation for complete citation

7 Humanity s Ecological Footprint and Humanity s Ecological Footprint and biocapacity, biocapacity,

8 The Quadruple Squeeze Human growth 20/80 dilemma Climate 550/450/350 dilemma Ecosystems 60 % loss dilemma Surprise 99/1 dilemma

9 We are Beyond the Planetary Boundaries Human activity has already pushed nature beyond its sustainability safe zone on a global scale in three areas: biodiversity loss, climate change, and disruptions to the Earth s nutrient cycle (nitrogen). The green circle is the safe zone Red indicates how far we have pushed Earth s systems Source: Rockström et al., A Safe Operating Space for Humanity, Nature, 21 Sept 2009

10 Where are we in regards to these 9 Planetary Boundaries?

11 Climate Change Risk Increasing Source: International Panel on Climate Change, 2014.

12 Key Risks in Asia Key Risks of Climate Disruption in Asia Source: IPCC Working Group III 12

13 Biodiversity, Forests, and Ecosystem Services are in rapid decline 2000 current forest cover 2050 predicted forest cover Source: WWF Living Planet Report

14 Natural Disasters are accelerating exponentially Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Trends in natural disasters. With growing population, decreasing nature, and increasing urban infrastructures, the world s exposure to natural hazards is inevitably increasing. To make matters worse any land remaining available for urban growth is generally risk-prone, for instance flood plains or steep slopes subject to landslides. The statistics in this graphic reveal an exponential increase in disasters. 14

15 Rising Prices, lower yeilds... and decreaing food security Source: FAO, 2008; IMF,

16 The Global Risk System Landscape Map * World Economic Forum, 2011

17 Resilience 17

18 Resilience.. What are we talking about? Etymology: 17th century, from Latin resiliens, resilire "to rebound, recoil" - re- "back" + salire "to jump, leap (C.S. " Buzz " Holling 1973 landscape ecology) Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change, so as to still remain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks. (B. Walker et al, Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability in Social-ecological Systems, Ecology and Society 9 (2) p. 5 Resilience is the ability to absorb disturbances, to be changed and then to reorganise and still have the same identity (retain the same basic structure and ways of functioning). It includes the ability to learn from the disturbance. A resilient system is forgiving of external shocks. The Resilience Alliance,

19 Resilience = adaptability & transformability; flexibility, robustness, resistence 19

20 Assumptions of resilience theory Two essential assumptions: 1. Humans and nature are strongly coupled and co-evolving -> systems as socio-ecological systems -> concept of Anthropocene 2. Systems are in constant flux, highly unpredictable, self-organizing with feedbacks across multiple scales in time and space -> non-linear behavior > complex adaptive systems * Scheffer, M. Nature (2010).; Stefen et. Al: AMBIO (2011).

21 Resilience key themes Two contrasting visions of stability 1. Traditional model: single equilibrium, global stability, near-equilibrium states, linearity Traditional model leads to maximizing efficiency, fixing carrying capacity and minimizing variability and disturbances Outcomes: Stability, Complete collapse 2. Dynamic model: multiple stable states, high variability, surprise and inherent unpredictability A resilient system can withstand shocks and rebuild itself when necessary 3 main features of Resilience: The amount of change the system can undergo and still retain the same controls on function and structure The degree to which the system is capable of self-organization The ability to build and increase the capacity for learning and adaptation

22 The Resilience of the Earth System There have been natural environmental fluctuations during the Holocene, but the key atmospheric and biogeochemical parameters have been relatively stable.[14] This stability and resilience has allowed agriculture to develop and complex human societies to thrive. Source: Rockström et al., A Safe Operating Space for Humanity, Nature, 21 Sept

23 Our precarious predicament A loss of resilience A new Earth system state or set of conditions. Will humanity be able to survive and thrive? We have our foot on the accelerator driving towards the Abyss... Ban Ki-moon Secretary General of the UN Sept 2009 Source: Rockström et al., A Safe Operating Space for Humanity, Nature, 21 Sept 2009

24 Resilient System Properties Are appropriately connected (Redundancy): A description of the quantity and quality of relationships between various system elements. A small number of very strong relationships would imply dependency and inflexibility, reducing resilience. (Gunderson and Holling, 2002) Exhibit functional and response diversity (Resourcefulness): these traits indicate the variety of services that components input to a system (functional) and the possible responses of these components to change (response), which buffers against change and allows for a return to normal after events. (Berkes et al., 2003) Are optimally redundant (Redundancy): Duplication of critical system components in the case of failure. (Low et al., 2003) Are spatially and temporally heterogeneous (Resourcefulness or Robustness): Indicates diversity of the landscape and changes with time, and can be seen as analogous to diversity above. (di Falco and Chavas, 2008) Are exposed to disturbance (Rapidity or Robustness): Systems which are exposed to frequent but low impact disturbances may result in increasing resilience in the long term as long as systems aren t pushed past critical thresholds. (Fletcher et al., 2006) 24

25 Resilient System Properties Are coupled with local natural capital: The system does not, to a large degree, overly tax the local natural resource base, and does not rely heavily on importing or exporting of resources or waste. (Ewel, 1999; Robertson and Swinton, 2005) Exhibit reflective and shared learning (Resourcefulness): Indicates that both individuals and institutions learn from the past and present to try and anticipate change and work towards desirable outcomes. (Milestad et al., 2010) Honor legacy (Rapidity): The system learns from the past, and those past conditions and experiences influence future pathways. (Cumming et al., 2005) Build human capital (Resourcefulness): The system should take advantage of resources that can be mobilized through social relationships. (Nahapiet and Ghoshal, 1998) Are reasonably profitable (Robustness): The system is able to financially support itself without relying on subsidies or other outside involvement. (Holling, 2001) 25

26 Sustainability 26

27 The Sustainability Paradigm Nature Economy Society Individual Human Wellbeing Without functioning natural systems, everything collapses. Without functioning economic systems, societies cannot advanc.e Without functioning social systems, people cannot develop & find happiness.

28 United Nations... Sustainable Development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Source: World Commission on Environment and Development, aka The Brundtland Commission, 1987

29 Sustainability Systems science: A set of conditions and trends in a given system that can continue indefinitely. Dictionary: The ability to endure

30 Sustainable DEVELOPMENT means A managed process of continuous innovation and systemic change in the direction of sustainability. i.e. Creating systems that can endure (i.e. resilient, transformative, flourishing) Source: AtKisson, The Sustainability Transformation, 2010

31 Sustainability is... Too much Sustainability area Not enough Sustainable Development process. Continuous strategic, thoughtful innovation focused on humanity s continued sustainability, informed by understanding and continuous monitoring of system boundaries, interactions and limits.

32 Some basic principles: An organization, community, or society will be sustainable if it 1. understands its own systems, and the systems in which it is embedded; 2.. understands and accounts for limits and system dynamics; 3. looks for and responds to long-term systemic trends that affect its ability to achieve its goals; 4. changes internally to meet and take advantage of external conditions and trends; 5. is resilient enough to withstand shortterm shocks; 6. does not undermine the conditions of its own existence; S W E N

33 Summary of Key Messages Humanity has had a huge impact on the planet s resource base and ecological systems. We cut deeply into the planetary system resilience trough. The risk of system failure or bifurcation are high, and we are at or very near the tipping point. We must focus on adaptive resilience of our socioeconomic and natural environmental systems. We know what to do! Sustainability requires system understanding, constant monitoring, and collaborative innovation and action. 33

34 Some Final Thoughts Disaster risk reduction and building of resilience to disaster to be addressed with a renewed sense of urgency in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication, and, as appropriate, to b integrated into policies, plans, programmes, and budgets at all levels and considered within relevant future frameworks. - UN General Assembly Resolution on SD We must ensure that development strategies and programmes prioritise the building of resilience among peole and societies at risk from shocks Investing in resilience and risk reduction increases the value and sustainability of our development efforts. Busan Partnership on Aid Effectiveness Development cannot be sustainable if the disaster risk reduction approach is not fully integrated into development planning and investments Development investment that does not consider disaster risk will lead to the accumulation of more risk. UN Secretary General 34

35 Comments, Questions? 35

36 Part 2 Pre-disaster Risk Management The case for taking a Systems Approach 36

37 Pre-disaster Risk Reduction and SD The three Strategic Goals The more effective integration of disaster risk considerations into sustainable development policies, planning and programming at all levels, with a special emphasis on disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness and vulnerability reduction; The development and strengthening of institutions, mechanisms and capacities at all levels, in particular at the community level, that can systematically contribute to building resilience to hazards; The systematic incorporation of risk reduction approaches into the design and implementation of emergency preparedness, response and recovery programmes in the reconstruction of affected communities. 37 Source: ISDR: Guidance on Measuring the Reduction of Disaster Risks and the Implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action

38 Hazard, exposure and vulnerability drive direct risk in Disaster Risk Management Analysis Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Direct Risk Indirect Risk Disaster Risk Exposure Reducing Risk & Increasing Resilience Source: Adapted and expanded from IIASA CATSIM model (Mechler et al., 2006) Disas ter Risk Exposure 38

39 Key factors influencing resilience and decreasing disaster risk Source: Turnbull et al.,

40 Analysis and Decision Making Linear vs. circular 40

41 41

42 Analytical Thinking Dominates are Problem Solving and Management Decisions From a very early age we are taught to break apart problems: to fragment the world. This apparently makes complex tasks and subjects more manageable, but we pay an enormous price when we are adults... we can no longer see the consequences of our actions. We lose our intrinsic sense of connection to a larger whole.

43 Most of our policies are also based on analytical and linear cause & effect thinking

44 The Problem of this type of thinking Analytical Thinking can t tell us why we are getting the results that we are getting because the parts lose their meaning when separated from the whole. This sets up learning disorders in organisations because cause and effect are often separated in space and time. System dynamics, non-linearity, and delays make it quite difficult to judge or measure the effectiveness of our actions over time. And we often end up with unintended consequences down the road

45 The solution to one problem may cause another problem unintended consequences

46 We must learn to see and understand the world as a whole system not a collection of individual parts Source: John Gerber, Systems Thinking Introduction, 2007

47 Our Sustainable Development Challenges link across sectors Economic Poverty Resource scarcity Unemployment Production & consumption patterns and processes Rural development Well being Individual happiness Spiritual emptiness Personal security Mental Health Issues Physical health Nature Climate change Deforestation Biodiversity loss Fresh water Land degradation Waste reduction Natural Disasters Social Social development Sanitation & hygiene Crime Trafficking Migration Gender equity Food security social & ethnic conflict The Whole is greater than the Sum of its parts!

48 The needed Transition From Analytical (Linear) Thinking to System Thinking Linear Thinking Blame Events Blame Blame Problem Systems Thinking Events Problem

49 What are systems? Systems are groups of discrete elements that work together to make a whole. Systems are bound together by the laws of cause and effect, and governed by flows of information, energy and materials. Note: People give definition to systems based on an idea of what should happen at a given point in time. Thus, systems have a purpose.

50 System Thinking Systems Thinking is seeking to understand the connections among elements in a system what depends on what, what is causing what, where are information flows, where control decisions are made, what information flows are critical, And how best to manage or intervene in the system for desired results.

51 Systems Thinking as a special language It uses terms like source, stock, flow, sink and feedback ; It emphasizes wholes rather than parts, and stresses the role of interconnections including the role we each play in the systems at work in our lives. It emphasizes circular feedback (for example, A leads to B, which leads to C, which leads back to A) rather than linear cause and effect (A leads to B, which leads to C, which leads to D,... and so on); It contains special terminology that describes system behavior, such as reinforcing process (a feedback flow that generates exponential growth or collapse) and balancing process (a feedback flow that controls change and helps a system maintain stability).

52 Systems Thinking as a Set of Tools The field of systems thinking has generated a broad array of tools that let us: (1) graphically depict your understanding of a particular system's structure and behavior, (2) communicate with others about your understandings of the system; (3) design high-leverage interventions for problematic system behavior.

53 Systems Thinking helps us to move the focus away from events and patterns of behavior (which are symptoms of problems) and toward systemic structure and the underlying mental models Car Ownership Mental Models Source: Senge, Peter, The Fifth Discipline, How is quality of life perceived?

54 At a minimum, systems thinking is essential to understanding sustainability challenges. For example: In 2008, I was sitting in a traffic jam in Jakarta which delayed me from attending a meeting with government officials. One of the causes mentioned by my driver was a large protest downtown against food price increases. In the next couple of days, I read a number of seemingly disconnected stories in the newspapers that actually were not so disconnected

55 Try this Puzzle? To test your sustainability systems thinking skills: How are the following items connected, in cause-and-effect terms? Food protests in Indonesia Traffic jams in Jakarta Rainforest loss in Brazil The number of ethanol-driven cars Global soybean prices Melting glaciers and polar ice US corn production Percentage of undernourished children

56 Why Systems Thinking is Essential to Sustainable Development Ethanol-Driven Cars Melting Ice Caps Rainforest Loss in Brazil Jakarta Traffic Jam Food Protests in Indonesia US Corn Production Soybean Prices Hungry & Malnourished Children

57 Why Systems Thinking is Essential to Sustainable Development Ethanol-Driven Cars US Corn Production US Soybean Production Melting Ice Caps Rainforest Loss in Brazil Brazilian Soy Production Jakarta Traffic Jam Food Protests in Indonesia Hungry & Malnourished Children Price of Tempeh and Tofu in Indonesia

58 Why Systems Thinking is Essential to Sustainable Development Melting Ice Caps Rainforest Loss in Brazil Jakarta Traffic Jam Ethanol-Driven Cars Brazilian Soy Production Food Protests in Indonesia US Corn Production US Soybean Production Soybean Prices Hungry & Malnourished Children Price of Tempeh and Tofu in Indonesia

59 Why Systems Thinking is Essential to Sustainable Development Jakarta Traffic Jam Food Protests in Indonesia

60 Why Systems Thinking is Essential to Sustainable Development Number of Cars on Jakarta Roads Car Production & Price Food Protests in Indonesia Jakarta Traffic Jam Population of Indonesia Ideas of Quality of Life vs. Human Wellbeing? Car Purchase Decisions Social Pressures & Status Needs Ease of Credit Presence of Collective Transport

61 System maps like these are often called models. Indicators feed into our mental models of all the systems in which we live Real World Decisions & Actions that Affect the Real World AUTOMATED PROCESSES Indicators We Use to Understand the World Our Strategies and Decision Rules REFLECTIVE PROCESSES Our Mental Models of the Real World so it is best to make these mental models explicit.

62 Systems thinking is the practice of examining, and improving, our mental models Overly simple mental model More sustainable mental model

63 The System Iceberg L e v e r a g e Events What is happening? What has happened? Pattern of Behaviour What actions or decisions do we see repeated over and over? System Structure What structure is driving the problem? Mental Model What are the values, beliefs, and assumptions do people have? What is their understanding? 63

64 What should we do to make change; i.e. decrease impacts of disaster & increase community resilience? Increasing Leverage The System Iceberg Events e.g. flooding from extreme weather event and huge financial and human loss of life Patterns of Behaviour Our repeated actions, habits, decisions over time; e.g. rate and scale of urban development, deforestation, car ownership Systems Structure What is the foundation that is supporting and generating the trends & patterns resulting in events (i.e., decision-making and policy and regulatory structure, education system, economic development model, development planning system, health system, etc. Mental Model The prevailing world view, beliefs, values and vision of government and business leaders and policy makers; e.g. High GDP is our Development Goal!, Free market capitalism, top down government, social stability over liberties, rights and freedoms Knee-jerk reaction Anticipate & plan Design Transform Source: Senge, Peter, Schools That Learn: A Fifth Discipline Fieldbook for Educators,

65 The System Iceberg Question Model Ask questions to identify key events: What is happening? Or What happened? Ask questions that surface patterns of trends: Has this happened before? How often? Is it similar to other problems we ve had? Ask questions about structure: What structure is driving this problem? What explains this? Where are delays and what effects have they had? Questions to understand belief systems and assumptions: What is our understanding? What are our beliefs about this? What assumptions are we making? Events e.g. flooding from extreme weather event and huge financial and human loss of life Patterns of Behaviour Our repeated actions, habits, decisions Anticipate & plan over time; e.g. rate and scale of urban development, deforestation, car ownership Systems Structure What is the foundation that is supporting and generating the trends & patterns resulting in events (i.e., decision-making and policy and regulatory structure, education system, economic development model, Design development planning system, health system, etc. Mental Model The prevailing world view, beliefs, values and vision of government and business leaders and policy makers; e.g. High GDP is our Development Goal!, Free market capitalism, top down government, social stability over liberties, rights and freedoms Knee-jerk reaction Transform Source: Senge, Peter, Schools That Learn: A Fifth Discipline Fieldbook for Educators,

66 FORIN Framework is a good place to Start asking Questions Mental Models Refer to Handout with list of suggested research questions Source: CCA-DRM FORIN Framework

67 The key to systems thinking is understanding feedback 67

68 Pyramid Building Systems Level 2 System Feedback Loops In most cases, changing one factor will impact on another factor, which will then affect the first. Feedback will either reduce the impact of the change, or will amplify it. Water available for in-stream flow in rivers and streams Policy & Programmes aimed at water conservation Amount of water consumed per household & industry

69 Pyramid Building Systems Level 2 All dynamics arise from the interaction of just two types of feedback loops: 1. Positive (self-reinforcing): Positive loops tend to reinforce or amplify whatever is happening in the system. 2. Negative (balancing or self-correcting) loops: Negative loops counteract and oppose change

70 Reinforcing Feedback pushes a system to keep doing what it s doing ( positive, reinforcing )... Efforts directed at Water conservation Reinforcing Loops generate exponential growth s Virtuous cycle s Public support for water conservation s R Vicious cycle Awareness of positive results/ success Positive Results s

71 Total water taken from rivers Balancing loops tend to counteract changes to systems. They seek goals, provide stability and push towards equilibrium. s Total amt. water taken from river o Precipitation patterns Balancing Loops Create Resistance & Stability Total water demand B Available water for new homes s Total # homes in the region s Total # homes

72 Disaster Management Reinforcing Feedback Loop S Preparedness S Mitigation Disaster Impacts and SD Response S Recovery S 72

73 Three reasons why you should want to understand feedback loops To understand system behavior, because you cannot understand why a system does what it does without seeing the feedback structures To understand rapid growth (or shrinkage) patterns, which are driven by amplifying, or dampening, feedback loops. (Example of an amplifying feedback loop: the more we do this, the more we want to do this ) To find the best leverage points, which often involves breaking or creating feedback loops (also known as vicious cycles and virtuous cycles ) Mental Models

74 Simple System Diagramming Steps Step 1 Figure out how trends, decision-making, and information flows are linked together in multiple cause-effect relationships

75 Example use of Causal Loop Systems Diagramming flood preparedness Group models developed for the Transcarpathian Tisa basin: the causal-loop-diagram (1) of a concept of flood preparedness that links coping ability (short-term measure in the case of a hazard event) and adaptive capacity (long-term preparedness). The pluses (?) and minuses (-) indicate the polarity that the relationship is assumed to have (thanks to Piotr Magnszweski for contributing to the model structuring) 75

76 Simple System Diagramming Steps Step 1 Step 2 Leverage Points Figure out how trends, decision-making, and information flows are linked together in multiple cause-effect relationships Use that analysis to identify the best leverage points for introducing change

77 Finding the Leverage Points for system intervention Leverage points are places in your system map where you can intervene with an projects, program, technology, policy, etc. that will change the system relationships towards the direction that you want and be reflected in your main Indicator.

78 << HARDER / MORE IMPACT LESS IMPACT / EASIER >> Places to Intervene in a System 9 Parameters (numbers / indicators) 8 Material Stocks and Flows (stuff moving around) 7 Balancing Feedback Loops (thermostat-style controls) 6 Reinforcing Feedback Loops (growth and change rates) 5 Information Flows (who knows what) 4 Rules (requirements, policies, incentives...) 3 The Power of Self-Organization (adaptive capacity) 2 Goals (hierarchies of purpose) 1 Mindsets and Paradigms (core assumptions) 0 The Ability to Transcend Paradigms (no assumptions) Source: Donella H. Meadows, Places to Intervene in a System, Whole Earth Review, 1997

79 Examples of Places to Intervene Place to Intervene Parameters Material Stocks and Flows Balancing Feedback Loops Reinforcing Feedback Loops Information Flows Rules The Power of Self-Organization Goals Mindsets and Paradigms Ability to Transcend Paradigms Example Choice of indicator to report progress Choice of fuel, paper, etc. Thermostat settings, correction routines Awards programs, bonuses Getting the data to a local newspaper Law & regulation Green-bag lunch discussions Switch to Renewable Energy! Growth = progress >> Quality = progress Philosophical questions without answers Source: Alan AtKisson

80 Identifying key Leverage Points for Intervention = Leverage Point 80

81 The development risk resilience system Interventions Socioeconomic drivers / Resilience Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Direct Risk Development / Human Wellbeing Coping Capacity / Resilience Indirect Risk Recovery Capacity / Resilience Source: Adapted and expanded from IIASA CATSIM model (Mechler et al., 2006) 81

82 Conclusion 82

83 Pyramid Building Systems Level 2 What does a Systems approach give us? Deeper Insight: Understand components and their links in the system, you will understand its behavior. Higher Leverage: Change a component or link in the system, and you will change the system behavior. Better Solutions: Solving problems almost always involves changing systems (identify and change the limiting factor.

84 In closing... what systems thinking helps us to understand We can't impose our will upon a system. We can listen to what the system tells us, and discover how its properties and our values can work together to bring forth something much better than could ever be produced by our will alone. We can't control systems or figure them out. But we can dance with them! Donella Meadows, Dancing with Systems, 2001

85 Comments, Questions, Discussion 85

86 SYSTAINABILITY ASIA / ATKISSON GROUP robert@atkisson.com