Bankrupting Nature. Global risks and pathways to global sustainability. Anders Wijkman and Johan Rockström. Nalen 6th december

Transcription

1 Bankrupting Nature Global risks and pathways to global sustainability Anders Wijkman and Johan Rockström Nalen 6th december

2 Photos: Mattias Klum

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4 Humanity has reached a planetary saturation point The Human ability to do has vastly outstripped our ability to understand A resilient biosphere the basis for humen development Fierce urgency of now A great transformation to global sustainability necessary, possible, and desirable Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre

5 From: Steffen et al The Great Acceleration the great acceleration CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4 of the human concentrations entreprise, Professor Overfishing Will Steffen Land degradation Loss Biodiversity

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7 Multiple Interacting driving forces pushing systems towards tipping points Natural Fire regimes Biomass burning Palm-oil expansion El Nino El Nino goes from regenerative to destructive force Breaking millennia long Fire-El Nino relationship for Dipterocarp trees

8 Humanity s 10,000 years of grace

9 Climate change Ozone depletion Atmospheric aerosol loading Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P cycles Ocean acidification Rate of biodiversity loss Planetary Boundaries Global freshwater use Land system change Chemical pollution

10 Transgressing safe boundaries Global freshwater use Rockström et al Nature, 461 (24):

11 Interactions among Planetary Boundaries Gt Carbon/yr land ocean atmosphere Resilience of the Earth system Adapted from Canadell et al., 2007

12 Climate negotiations are not likely to deliver at least not in time Almost 20 years of negotiations and still no agreement Negotiations must continue, but a Plan B must be developed We have to look for Ad hoc-solutions

13 Peak oil and rising energy prices will have serious consequences Cheap oil main reason for prosperity Growing gap between demand and supply hype around shale oil and shale gas but great uncertainties both re volumes and environment and climate consequences Higher prices will affect growth Certain sectors will be severely hit, like transport and agriculture Tensions and potential conflicts around energy access are likely The world would need an Oil Protocol

14 Investments in Renewables and Efficiency on the rise but too slow Many barriers to investments: - information lacking - split incentives - finance; less support for renewables in 2012 than time to commerzialise new technology and scale up. - hype around shale oil and shale gas - intermittency - land and water requirements - EROI

15 Real commodity prices, * Energy Metals & Minerals Agriculture Note: 2011 is Jan-Feb average

16 In a resource-constrained world Competition for water, land, energy and materials will be fierce Investments in resource-efficient infrastructure and renewables must have top priority Recycling and reuse will be KEY R&D must be aiming at sustainable innovation

17 The Growth Dilemma Continued economic growth, as presently structured, will not be possible from the point of climate, ecosystems, resource constraints and planetary boundaries De-growth is not possible from the point of the economy, the financial system and social stability Few politicians want to discuss this dilemma The challenge can only be addressed through a thorough discussion in society and a transition to a more sustainable model

18 Major shortcomings in conventional economic policy framework Natural capital is not accounted for Markets for ecosystem services lacking GDP growth confused with increase in welfare Resources are treated as if easy to substitute Role of High-Quality Energy largely ignored Positive discounting wrongly applied Externalities not accounted for + Perverse Subsidies Financial system ignorance of climate risks Income gaps widen dramatically Unemployment not proactively addressed

19 The Financial system increasingly resembles a gigantic Ponzi Scheme; many people getting rich by depleting natural stocks and destabilizing climate or by creating bubbles and selling out before the bubbles burst

20 The financial sector expansion In 1980 global financial assets represented 109 % of world GDP In 2006 the ratio was 346 % Bubbles should surprise no-one In 1980 salary for CEO in finance was equal with industry average; today > 4 times higher In 2007 finance sector made up 40 % of US private sector profits! A study by BIS shows that financial sectors become a burden when ratio of credits exceed 90 % of GDP - the case in many nations

21 Financial sector and sustainability Short term dominates; Quarterly reporting, compensation systems extremely short term Rapid credit expansion means the future is mortgaged; financially and in terms of nature Since sustainability is most often ignored, unsustainable investments proliferate and the consequences are negative as regards climate change, ecosystem overuse and resource depletion

22 Financial sector ignoring the risks The 200 largest listed companies report much larger fossil reserves than can be used to stay within the 2 degree target billion tons CO2 vs 565 billion tons These companies only make up ¼ of estimated fossil reserves, most of which are owned by state-owned companies The valuation shows a huge discrepancy between science and the way markets work Markets appear to believe that a)climate change is a hoax, b) there will be no international climate agreement or c) CCS will take care of the emissions If CCS is the solution, WHY are investments at a record low? True, there is no global price on Carbon. Risks related to carbon investments, however, are considerable. Besides: where are the ethics?

23 How to move forward? We need a vision for a sustainable society How much is lagom? Analyze carefully the necessary transition Apply a system s approach Merge the agendas of finance, economy, employment, climate change, pollution and resource depletion and constraints The financial crisis is not about money alone it is as much about natural resources

24 A old/new economic paradigm

25 Strategy for Sustainability I Stop having Economic Growth as main target! Focus on specific welfare goals instead. Priority to transdisciplinary science and education Strengthen Global Governance start w EU+Asia? Merge poverty reduction w climate and ecosystem protection Reform economic and finance policy frameworks Public Procurement proactive role in transformation Land use critical both forests and agriculture Stabilise population Bring in behavioral sciences; facts alone will not help

26 Strategy for Sustainability II Rethink Economics: - Take Nature into Account - New indicators for welfare and well-being - Promote Circular Economy - Binding targets for energy and resource efficiency - Raising taxes on use of virgin materials/ reducing taxes on labour - New Business models for performance - Finance sector reform; start by taking climate and environment risks seriously -

27 Strategy for Sustainability III The world needs a binding climate agreement to evolve into agreement for Sustainability In the absence we need a Plan B that gives priority as well to energy security - Multiply support for Energy R&D - Multiply investments in renewables - Binding goal for energy efficiency - Global Feed-in Tariff for Renewables - Remove perverse subsidies

28 Strategy for Sustainability IV Crash Programme for Sustainable Innovation: - From Cradle to Cradle closed material loops; Nature does not have a design problem Humans do - Biomimicry - Use ICT for transformative change - Functional services / Extend wealth - Multiply financial support for Energy R&D

29 De-coupling a challenge Ever since Bruntland Report de-coupling has been seen as THE SOLUTION to address environment and resource constraints Relative de-coupling is happening but absolute de-coupling is far away Efficiency gains normally eaten up by continued economic growth and the rebound effect Efficiency is crucial but must be achieved within a differently organized economy, i e by doing the right things

30 Move towards a circular economy Products are designed to last longer Reuse, recycling and reconditioning of materilas main objective Will require local service economy for maintenance and repair = more jobs Will require new business models focusing on HQ service and performance Can be promoted by tax reform; raising taxes on use of virgin materials while lowering taxes on labour A circular economy will mean less pressure on resources both finite and renewables In addition it will lead to significantly lower GHG emissions ( Research by SEI, York and others) The EU Commission Roadmap for a Resource-Efficient Europe!

31 Functional sales do happen in B2B Rolls Royce leases jet engines Interface leases carpets Michelin leases tyres for trucks Xerox offers copying services Resource and energy use + CO2 emissions have decreased significantly. The companies have benefitted financially. Now is time to move into the area of B2C cars, appliances, electronic equipment, kitchens, furniture, textiles etc

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