Current status and future prospects of low carbon technology and power system

Transcription

1 Current status and future prospects of low carbon technology and power system Koichi Yamada Center for Low Carbon Society Strategy Japan Science and Technology Agency 1

2 Contents Global warming temperature Design & evaluation platform for low carbon technology Evaluation result of renewable energy system Evaluation result of carbon free hydrogen Evaluation result of low carbon power supply system Value of R&D result for reducing electricity cost 2

3 Historical change of CO 2 /GDP in the world World CO 2 /GDP(t /k$) Increasing rate by expanding industry which emits CO 2 Population(B) y 0.93 Decreasing rate by change of industrial structure and new technologies CO 2 /GDP (2014) China : 1.14 India :0.94 Non-OECD : 0.78 Pop.(B) CO 2 /GDP (2014) USA :0.32 OECD30:0.25 Japan : y 0.45 World annual economic growth rate (%) Calculated using GDP data of Angus Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy before 1950 Year 3

4 Global temperature rise Ct / GWPt = 0.45 ADR(t 2014) (t = AD) GWP t = 73,000(1+ annual growth rate of GWP) t t ΔT = 0.64( Ct) (ΔT: Temperature rise after 1870, ) Σ 2015 ADR : Annual decreasing rate of C t / GWP (t-co 2 /M$/y) GWP t : Gross world product after 2015 ( B$/y) C t : CO 2 emissions (Mt-CO 2 /y) ΔT can be calculated by using global economic growth rate and ADR H.D.Matthews et al. Nature 459 (June 09) 4

5 Temperature rise( ) Effects of technology progress and economic growth on global warming Decrease rate of CO 2 /GWP , 1.0%, 1.0%/y , 2.0%, , 3.0%, , 1.0%, , 2.0%, , 3.0%, 6.6 kg-co 2 /$-GWP/y Av.Value of past 100y = Economic growth rate Temperature rise Year 5

6 Items for designing low carbon power supply system 1 Low environmental impact 2 Low cost 3 Stable supply system Time scale: From 0.1 second to minutes (GF), 10 minutes (LFC), hour to year (storage) 4 Amount of renewable energy available in each region 5 Power transmission system 6 Flexibility of demand system 7 Power supply construction scenario towards CO 2 emissions of 0 6

7 Platform for Design & Evaluation of LCT ( Modeling Tool ) Automated process design support system developed by LCS. PFD with mass & energy balance Equipment selection & sizing Equipment cost & weight PFD Equipment sizing Equipment cost & weight PV Battery FC Wind Power Med-sized hydraulic Geothermal Woody biomass Biogas CCS Production cost & CO2 emissions Raw materials, utilities cost Environmental load 7

8 PV installed costs (Yen/W) mono-crystalline Silicon solar cell(module efficiency 17%, wafer thickness 180μm) (13%) Thin-film compound semiconductor solar cell (CIGS) BOS Prospects of PV System Cost New thin film Organic, Perovskite etc. (15%) Stand (20%, 150μm) Module Cost (18%) Important R & D items for future bright system (20%,100μm) (22%) (25%) Thinner Si-wafer by new slicing tech CIGS tandem by high speed process Organic compound tandem (15%) Current status Improved existing tech. Future product (20-25%, 50μm) Org. mat. tandem (30%) Compound tandem (20-30%) Power conditioner Future 8

9 PV module and system cost breakdown Type of PV (generation efficiency) V. C Single crystal Si 150μm th. (20%) (Yen/W) Future CIGS (15%) CIGS (18%) New thin film (15%) Single crystal Si 50μm th. (25%) CIGS tandem (30%) Organic tandem (30%) Material Utility F. C B O S Equipment, Labor Subtotal Stand Inverter Subtotal Total Cost

10 PV module and system cost PV cost ( /W) % 14% 17% Dotted line: System cost Solid line: Module cost : Calculated in 1991 : Calculated in 2013 : Japanese Mod.price : Chinese Mod. price 20% 23%

11 2015 Year 2020 Year 2030 Production scale [GWh ST /y] 1(10) Yield [%] 66(90) Specific energy [Wh ST /kg] Cathode/Anode Cathode/Anode capacity [mah/g] Ratio of actual to theoretical capacity (Cathode/Anode) Production cost [JPY/Wh ST ] Current and future scenarios of LiBs Variab le cost LiNi 0.85 Co 0.12 Al 0.03 O 2 /Graphite LiNi 0.85 Co 0.12 Al 0.03 O 2 /Graphite Li 2 S-C/ Li 200/ / / / / /0.85 Material 10.2(7.5) 4.8 Utilities 0.5(0.4) 0.3 Fixed cost 3.2(1.7) 1.4 Total 13.9(9.6)

12 Geothermal power generation (Hot dry rock) Rainfall 640 Gm 3 /y River 240 Gm 3 /y Water demand River 80 Gm 3 /y Flasher Injection well Hydrothermal Potential:150TWh/y Production well 2~3km % of injection energy is converted to earthquake Resevoir Rock Global earthquake 300 energy is 1.2EJ/y, 550TWh/y it is 0.1% of earth interior energy Heat source Water usage = 2.3 Gm 3 /y for 200TWh(30GW) by HDR, water eff. of 98% 12

13 Electricity Cost Estimation of Hot Dry Rock System Plant Site Kakkonda Minase Water from River 1,400t/h 5,600t/h Water Recovery Rate 50% 98% 98% Reservoir Temp Generation Output 38MW 157MW 650MW Efficiency 16% 16% 16% No. of Injection Well No. of Production Well Total Investment Cost 19B 57B 180B Variable Cost 1.2 /kwh 0.3 /kwh 0.3 /kwh Fixed Cost 9.1 /kwh 6.6 /kwh 5.0 /kwh Electricity Cost 10.2 /kwh 6.8 /kwh 5.3 /kwh Annual expense rate 10%, Operating factor 80%, Variable cost = Water cost (20 /m 3 ) 13

14 Electricity generation cost & potential of renewable energy (Japan) Cost( /kwh) Potential(TWh/y) Present 2030 Photo voltaic 24 6 >400 WP( land) 16 8 >500 Geothermal Hydro(small/medium) Biogas 25(13) 13(5) 15 Biomass 25(18) 12(4) 40 ( ): Fuel cost Power consumption = 1000TWh/y Biogas : 20% of Fermentation potential( m3 /y) 14

15 Carbon Free Hydrogen for Fuel H 2 Production Biomass PV,WP Etc. Compression, Liquefaction, Hydrogenation to MCH, NH 3 synthesis, Delivery H 2 H 2 Product H 2 Power Plant 18.8MJ/kg-biomass, 10/kg, 0.53/MJ Delivery by truck, tank lorry, pipeline 15

16 16

17 Production cost of H 2 from biomass H2 cost at power plant ( /MJ) Details 1 H 2 Gas 2 H 2 Gas Pipe Cylinder -Truck Biomass Gasification Transportation etc Total Case 3.3 (4.1 ) 4.7 (6.6 ) 3 Liq. H 2 4 MCH/ Tank -Truck 6.1 (6.9 ) Transportation: 100km (200km ) Dehydration Tank-Truck 6.1 (6.9 ) The cost of H 2 produced by PV and used for power plant is 6~13 /MJ (Occupancy rate of electrolyser 10 ~ 30%), Gasoline price= 4 /MJ 17

18 Daily electricity consumption, battery discharge and thermal power generation (TWh/Day) Annual thermal power generation is 155 TWh under 50% share of PV and 20 % of WP with B. discharge of 195TWh Importance of weather forecast Daily change Not hourly Electricity consumption(1000 TWh/y) Battery discharged(195 TWh/y) TP operated 18

19 Multi-regional power generation model GW Unused electricity Stored Supplied PV Hydro(dams) Gas, Oil Coal Other Base power WP Average output of Peak days (energy saving, low CO2 case) *ROR: Run-of-the-river hydroelectricity LFC: Load frequency control, GF: Governor-free control Storage system Stored Supplied Battery, Pumped hydro Power generation with fluctuation PV, Wind power Demand curve Constraints for fluctuation Load following power plants LNG, Oil, Hydro(dams) Baseload plant,>50% Coal, Nuclear, Hydro(ROR), Biomass, Geothermal LFC 10 min GF Sec. to Min. Outputs of thermal power plant and storage system are calculated while that of other plants are given by scenarios. 19

20 Power Cost, 80% reduction of CO 2 ( Mt/y, 2050) Case Power demand (TWh) ,000 NP HP Coal LNG PV WP Geothermal Geothermal(Hot dry rock) Biomass Total ,213 H 2 Generation (TWh) Storage Battery (GWh) 367(109) 451(135) 400(120)362(110) 827(234) Generation Cost ( /kwh) ( 10/kWh = 85/MWh) (TWh) Supplied electricity by battery 20 Generation Power(TWh)

21 Power cost & Power demand with high CO 2 reduction rate Case Power demand (TWh) NP + HDR HP LNG PV WP Geothermal Biomass Total 1,028 1,135 1,310 1,503 H 2 Generation (TWh) Storage Battery (GWh) 334(45) 322(76) 531(121) 744(166) Generation Power(TWh) Generation Cost ( /kwh) CO 2 reduction rate 100% 98% 92% 85% ( 10/kWh = 85/MWh) (TWh) Supplied electricity by battery 21

22 Power cost and CO 2 reduction rate(2030 technology level) Power cost ( /kwh) Demand (TWh/y) Stable power (HDR+NP) (PV 2020 level) (82%) (90%) (92%) (98%) CO 2 reduction rate 10.7 ( /kwh) Technology stagnation at 2020: 600B /y, case

23 Conclusion Reduction of CO 2 emissions from power generation by 80% in 2050 can be realized at almost the same current cost in Japan. Toward CO 2 zero emissions electricity, stable power supply ( power generation with inertia ) by geothermal, H 2 etc. becomes more important after The difference in technology level between 2020 and 2030 is a difference of about 600 billion yen in the electricity cost at the time of the CO 2 emission reduction rate of 80% in