Spencer Dale Group chief economist

Transcription

1 Spencer Dale Group chief economist

2 Energy Outlook scenarios Primary energy consumption by fuel CO 2 emissions Billion toe Gt of CO Renew.* 5 4 Evolving transition (ET) More energy (ME) Less globalization (LG) Rapid transition (RT) 15 Hydro Nuclear 3 Coal Gas 5 Oil 17 ET ME LG RT *Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and biofuels 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

3 Three windows on the energy transition Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Billion toe 15 Transport Industry Non-combusted Buildings 15 Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD 15 Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

4 Energy demand by sector Primary energy consumption by end-use sector Annual demand growth and sector contributions Billion toe 15 5 Transport Industry Non-combusted Buildings % per annum 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5% % BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

5 Regional energy demand Primary energy consumption by region Billion toe 15 5 Other Other Asia Africa India China OECD Primary energy growth and regional contributions % per annum 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% % BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

6 Increase in primary energy demand Increase in primary energy demand, 17-4 Billion toe 3 25 Income per head Energy efficiency World population 15 5 Primary energy 17 demand 17 Population GDP/capita Energy/GDP Primary energy 4 demand 4 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

7 Global energy by fuel type Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy Billion toe 15 Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 5% 4% 3% % 5 % % BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

8 Three windows on the energy transition Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Billion toe 15 Transport Industry Non-combusted Buildings 15 Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD 15 Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

9 Five key questions and uncertainties How much more energy does the world need? How important are plastics for the future of oil demand? What might happen if the trade disputes escalate? How quickly could renewables grow? A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be done? 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

10 Five key questions and uncertainties How much more energy does the world need? How important are plastics for the future of oil demand? What might happen if the trade disputes escalate? How quickly could renewables grow? A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be done? 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

11 Human development and energy consumption UN Human Development Index and energy consumption, 17 HDI 1. Line of best fit.8.6 Sample of countries.4.2 8% of population Gigajoules/head 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

12 Dual challenge: more energy, less carbon Primary energy demand and carbon emissions Cumulative growth rate 7% 5% 3% % -% -3% -5% more energy less carbon 7% Primary 5% energy 3% % -% CO 2-3% -5% -7% Primary energy CO 2 Evolving transition scenario -7% 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

13 Five key questions and uncertainties How much more energy does the world need? How important are plastics for the future of oil demand? What might happen if the trade disputes escalate? How quickly could renewables grow? A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be done? BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

14 Demand for oil and other liquid fuels Liquids demand Liquids demand growth Mb/d 14 1 Power Industry Non-road Cars Buildings Non-combusted Trucks Mb/d, average annual growth Power Buildings Industry 8 1. Non-combusted Transport Total Transport BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

15 Demand for liquid fuels and plastics Demand for non-combusted liquid fuels Mb/d 3 Liquid feedstocks for single-use plastics Mb/d Impact of tighter plastics regulations in ET scenario Impact of single use plastics ban BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

16 Demand and supply of oil Mb/d More energy Evolving transition Single-use plastics ban Greater reform Less globalization Rapid transition Supply with no investments in new fields Trillions of $s BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

17 Five key questions and uncertainties How much more energy does the world need? How important are plastics for the future of oil demand? What might happen if the trade disputes escalate? How quickly could renewables grow? A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be done? 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

18 Less globalization scenario Reduced openness and trade leads to slight reduction in trend global GDP growth Concerns about energy security adds a small risk premium (%) to imported energy 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

19 Alternative scenario: Less globalization Difference relative to ET scenario in 4: Global GDP and energy 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% GDP Energy Renewables Gas Total Coal Oil Net exports (oil & gas) Mtoe China US ET Less globalization 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

20 Five key questions and uncertainties How much more energy does the world need? How important are plastics for the future of oil demand? What might happen if the trade disputes escalate? How quickly could renewables grow? A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be done? 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

21 Renewable energy Renewables share of power generation Fuel shares in power 3% 25% % Geothermal and biomass Solar 5% 4% Gas Coal Renewables Hydro & Nuclear 15% Wind 3% % % 5% % % % BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

22 Speed of energy transition Share of world energy 35% 3% 25% % 15% % 5% Speed of penetration of new fuels in global energy system Oil (1877) Gas (1899) Nuclear (1974) Hydro (1922) Renewables (6) % Years from reaching 1% share 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

23 Five key questions and uncertainties How much more energy does the world need? How important are plastics for the future of oil demand? What might happen if the trade disputes escalate? How quickly could renewables grow? A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be done? 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

24 CO 2 emissions in ET scenario CO 2 emissions CO 2 emissions by sector Gt of CO 2 Gt of CO 2 4 Evolving transition 4 Transport Industry 3 3 Buildings Power BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

25 Rapid transition scenario: policy measures Wide range of policy measures: broadly equivalent in terms of their implied costs and effort No silver bullet: a comprehensive set of policy measures is needed Carbon prices are key, especially in the power and industrial sectors Role for targeted regulatory measures, especially until carbon prices reach material levels 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

26 ET 4 Power Industry & Buildings Transport RT 4 CO 2 emissions CO 2 emissions CO 2 in 4: ET vs RT scenario Gt of CO Evolving transition Rapid transtion Gt of CO BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

27 Global energy demand and fuel mix Billion toe Primary energy consumption by fuel Renewables Hydro Nuclear 8 4 Coal Gas Oil 17 Rapid transition Evolving transition 4 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

28 Hard-to-abate carbon emissions CO 2 emissions in RT scenario in 4 Gt of CO Buildings Industry Transport Power Decarbonise power sector Renewables Gas (and coal) plus CCUS Energy storage and demand-side-response Other low-carbon energy sources and carriers Hydrogen Bioenergy Efficiency Circular economy Process efficiency Storage and removal of carbon CCUS Negative emission technologies, eg land carbon, bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) 19 BP Energy Outlook BP p.l.c. 19

29 Spencer Dale Group chief economist