Climate Change and Occupational/Environmental Medicine. Kent E. Pinkerton, PhD

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Occupational/Environmental Medicine Kent E. Pinkerton, PhD Source: NASA Climate Change and Global Health Northwest Association Occupational and Environmental Medicine Skamania Lodge, Stevenson, WA September 26, 2015 University of California, Davis Department t of Pediatrics i

2 IPCC4th AR Global T increase 1.4 C

3 Our Climate is Changing grapidly UN World Meteorological Organization, March 2012 announcement of Global Temperature summary: The World is getting hotter. The rate of increase since 1971 has been remarkable k according to the preliminary assessment. 3

4 Temperature increase is due to Greenhouse Gases

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6 Rising CO2 Threatens Human Nutrition Th d 05/08/ Thursday, 05/08/2014-7:00am Harvard School of Public Health

7 Climate Change: The Evidence ismounting March 2012: Hottest March ever recorded d in US (NCDC) July 2012: Hottest July ever recorded in US (NCDC) C) o Hottest month out of last 1,400 months dating back to Drought: most extensive US drought since 1950s o 80 percent of agricultural land in US affected (USDA) o Colorado and Wyoming had the hottest summer on record (NOAA) o Nebraska and Wyoming had the driest summer on record. (NOAA) 7

8 81% Decrease of Ice on Mt.Kilimanjaro 1912 to 2000

9 SHRINKING ARCTIC ICEPACK Arctic ice has lost 40% of its volume in three decades. d Chance of this occurring secondary to natural cycles is <0.1%.

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11 Breakup of Larsen B Ice Shelf on Antarctic Peninsula January - March 2002 Provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

12 Increased Occurrence of Bleaching of Coral Reefs In , 16% of the world s reef building corals died due to El Nino increase in sea surface temperatures. Impact of thermal stress on reefs can be due to ocean acidification ph 8.16 to 8.05 from carbonic acid due to increasing i CO 2.

13 Cause and effect: Climate change may have caused the pine-beetle catastrophe.

14 Climate Change Will Increase Wildland Fires CA Climate Action Team, 2009 Report: An increase in the number, size and duration of fires will add to the air pollution that already burdens California. Risk of large wildfires: up to 55% increase by 2050 up to 128% increase by 2099 Wildland fires cause increased health care utilization for respiratory illness, especially asthma. 14

15 Components of wildfire smoke Particulate Matter is of specific importance. CO2 CO CH4 (methane) dioxinsi O3 NOx VOCs

16 Wildfire smoke emissions Emission i inventories i collected by the EPA for year of 2001 show that wildfires contribute 6%, 5%, 8% and 3% of the total CO, VOC, PM and PM 10 emissions into the atmosphere on the United States. The majority of emissions arise from other sources such as vehicle exhaust, road dust and industrial processes. Thus, these are the most important sources of emissions.

17 Is PM a concern? EPA PM2.5 Pollution: Air Quality Index ug/m3, very unhealthy ug/m3, unhealthy 55 ug/m3, unhealthy for sensitive groups PM 10 and PM 2.5 increase during light and heavy smoke. Measured concentrations of PM 10 and PM 2.5 measure before the 2003 CA wildfires, during the fires, and after the fires. The concentrations of PM 10 and PM 2.5 are equal before and after the fires, indicating that the PM increase evident during ildfi k t i t i t

18 Wildfire Smoke Travels The effects of wildfire smoke is dependent d on geographical location, weather and wind patterns. Areas affected for the most number of days by medium- to high- smoke exposure were close to 50 times greater than the areas directly burned by the fires themselves.

19 American Thoracic Society Workgroup Paper, March 2012: ClimateChangeand Change and Human Health evidence is increasing that climate change does drive respiratory disease onset and exacerbations "Our greatest concern is infants, children, the elderly and other sensitive populations," he said. "They will be the first to experience serious climate change-related health problems. Dr. Kent Pinkerton, UC Davis, Workgroup Co-Chair 19

20 Respiratory Health Effects of Climate Change Source: American Lung Association in California Land Use, Climate Change and Public Health Issue Brief,

21 Heat Waves August 2003 heat wave in France. Mean maximum temperature exceeded the seasonal norm by 11 12ºC on 9 consecutive days. 15,000 excess deaths were observed in France (60% increase of expected mortality) and 32,000 throughout Europe. Mortality was age related. It was 45% higher in women than in men >45 years. Increased mortality in widowed, single, anddivorceddivorced people. Excess mortality at hospitals (42%), home (32%) and in nursing homes (19%). Lack of air conditioning important cause. Significant increase in deaths related to heatstroke, hyperthermia, and dhd dehydration; heart tfil failure, chronic respiratory, and stroke also markedly kdl contributed to the mortality. Psychiatric disorders, especially depression, had increases. Dhainaut J F, et al Critical Care 2004; 8:1 2. Stafoggia M et al Epidemiology 2006; 17:

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23 Ozone Increases with Higher Temperatures 23

24 Environ Health Persp, In

25 Bell ML et al. Epidemiology 2005: 16:4

26 Ozone Health Effects (Jerrett at al. NEJM 2009) On days with high ozone levels, Asthmatics Increase: Emergency visits Hospital admissions Symptoms Medication use Decreased lung function 26

27 Impacts of Climate Change on Exposure to Pollen (Beggs) 27

28 Fine Particulate t Mtt Matter (PM 2.5 ) AcuteHealth Effects increased respiratory symptoms increased bronchodilator use increased hospitalizations for respiratory disease (pneumonia, asthma, bronchitis) increased cardiopulmonary mortality Increased emissions of fine PM during heat waves due to increased power generation for air conditioning 28

29 Black Carbon and Climate Change Black carbon (BC) is emitted directly as a result of incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. Leads to climate warming by: Absorbing incoming and reflected sunlight in the atmosphere; Darkening clouds, snow, and ice thereby reducing albedo; and Changing precipitation and cloud patterns. 29

30 BIOMASS AND HUT LUNG Asia, Africa, Latin America, indoor air pollution caused by burning biomass (branches, wood, dung, charcoal) and coal over primitive stones occurs in millions of homes. WHO estimates 1.9M premature deaths/year from indoor air pollution (twice that from outdoor pollution). 9.8M by Nearly half hlfh the people in the world use polluting inefficient i stoves to cook their food each day: 3B people use biomass 10% of global energy consumed. 80% of domestic energy consumption in India. 4 th in developing countries burden of disease. Hut Lung in women and pneumonia in children. High incidence of lung cancer in Chinese women. 6.7B tons of carbon by 2050 in Africa (cumulative); 6% of Africa s total. Global l Alliance for Clean Cookstoves is a new public private i partnership with a goal of 100M homes to adopt clean and efficient stoves and fuels by Medicine 2000; 79:

31 Bronchoalveolar lavage cells with anthracotic pg pigment within the alveolar macrophages (X400).

32 A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change: A Report Outlining the Research Needs on the Human Health Effects of Climate Change

33 Conclusions Health Effects of Climate Change Greater heat related illness and death Exacerbation of respiratory disease (e.g., asthma) Increased cardiopulmonary mortality Increased pollen season leading to increased respiratory allergic reactions (e.g., asthma) Climate related implications of biomass burning 33

34 Thank you! Questions? 34

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36 Global Warming s Terrifying New Math Bill McKibben (350.org) has endorsed three critical numbers: 2 C as the acceptable amount of global warming agreed to as the Copenhagen Accord signed by 167 countries responsible for more than 87% of the world s carbon emissions. Scientists estimate we can emit 565 gigatons of CO 2 into the atmosphere by 2050 and still stay below 2 C C. In 2011 we emitted 31.6 gigatons and emissions are increasing 3%/year reaching the limit in 16 yr. Carbon Tracker Initiative states that all of the oil, gas and coal companies have 2, 795 gigatons C in their combined reserve proprietary databases. This is valued at $27 trillion (if we stayed at 565 gigatons, approx. $20 trillion would have to be written off). ATS Workshop Report: Climate Change and Human Health. PATS 2012; 9: 3-8. Bill McKibben Global Warming s Terrifying New Math Rolling Stone Aug Bill McKibben. Global Warming s Terrifying New Math. Rolling Stone Aug 2, 2012.