Climate Change Impacts: Caribbean

Transcription

1 Climate Change Impacts: watersheds of Mesoamerica and the Caribbean Water quality and availability Flood potential

2 Context CATHALAC & SERVIR Climate Change and Biodiversity Increasing frequency and intensity in disasters Sediment and erosion modeling Land use change Deforestation α soil loss, water retention Urban and agricultural expansion α water needs

3 CATHALAC Mission Promote integrated watershed management in Latin America and the Caribbean, by means of applied investigation, education, and technology transfer Vision A prosperous and sustainable envi- ronment in the Latin America and Caribbean region

4 CATHALAC Integrated Watershed Resource Management Climate Change Environmental Modeling and Analysis Risk Management Our International Education Programs are derived from these programs

5 the Regional Visualization & Monitoring System (SERVIR) Terra Aqua Mesoamerica s Earth Observation & Forecasting Platform Earth Observing System Data and Operations System Fire Red Tides Test-bed at NASA MSFC LandSat MODIS SRTM AMSR-E IKONOS ASTER Environmental Monitoring & Decision Support Products Operational Node at CATHALAC Panama Web Interface Users Mesoamerican & Caribbean Government agencies NGOs, Researchers Educators, etc. Thematic Areas Agriculture Biodiversity Climate Ecosystems Energy Disasters Health Water Weather Land Cover / Use Change Impacts Emergency Response Policy Changes Corridor Preservation Species Preservation Sustained Development Improved livelihoods SERVIR is a completely 5 open- access system with products in range of formats

6 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Central America, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic, CATHALAC Data derived from: NatureServe InfoNatura Species Distribution Grids. WorldClim Climate Grids: Current and Future Conditions. IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas, 2007.

7 Trend analysis Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of tropical systems

8 Case study: Panama Canal Watershed (RUSLE)

9 Local water quality Sedimentation to Runoff ratio Historic Future projections Identification of critical areas

10 Water availability Current demand Future demand Land use change scenarios: Urban & agricultural growth scenario Conservation scenario Put changing demands in the context of g g changing precipitation trends

11 Data - terrain SRTM DEM, 90m Synthetic rivers and watersheds: D-8 method (Fairfield and Laymarie 1991) Why synthetic? Regional data do not always show transboundary watersheds very well and they re the important ones! Support hydrological modeling Validate with national datasets

12 Data - climate Worldclim baseline (1950s-1990s): 1km interpolated precipitation (Hijmans et al. 2005) 18 Worldclim climate change scenarios Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3T47) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization coupled model, Australia (CSIRO Mk3) x A2 B2 SERVIR RCM (Hernandez et al. 2006) Jan, Feb, June, July, August, September x 2020s 2050s 2080s

13 Flood potential Runoff before and after Hurricane or storm scenarios (MUSLE) Related to regional flood risk map Low elevation coastal zones National flood risk maps Highlight currently flood prone areas that are expected to undergo change; highlight new prone areas that weren t before

14 Other data MOD44 tree cover / regional land cover Cover factor Harmonized national soil data Erodibility (k factor) and USGS hydrological group

15 Tools Spatial Analyst Hydrology tools Surface tools Others (e.g., map algebra, raster calculator) N-SPECT: Nonpoint Source Pollution and Erosion Comparison Tool (NOAA)

16 Preliminary results, per watershed 12 baseline months + annual accumulation (12 projected months + annual accum.) x 18 scenarios = 234 Anomaly per watershed, for the above Zonal Statistics Map Algebra

17 Monthly accumulated precipitation per watershed: baseline Light Heavy

18 Monthly accumulated precipitation per watershed: HadCM3 A2 2020s Light Heavy

19 Monthly anomaly per watershed: [HadCM3 A2 2020s] baseline Drier Wetter

20 Monthly anomaly per watershed: scenario baseline For each month, consider: HadCM3, CGCM3T47, CSIRO Mk3 A2 & B2 scenarios 2020s, 2050s, 2080s 18 x 12 = 216 monthly precipitation anomaly per watershed grids

21 Monthly anomalies: a snapshot of capital cities in the region

22 Regional water quality Utilize N-SPECT to derive runoff and sedimentation estimates under baseline conditions and climate change scenarios Compare the ratio of sedimentation to runoff to discover rivers that are projected to experience more sedimentation than normal, given the change in precipitation patterns

23 Regional water availability TEST: Add into the mix land cover change scenarios, based on population growth and agricultural expansion trends CONTROL: Leaving land cover the same We are already familiar with land cover change cases El Valle de Anton, Panamá

24 Land use change and erosion La Indiana Dormida, Intensification of Agriculture

25 Land use change and erosion Cerro El Gaital Soil and Forest Conservation

26 Expected results: regional water availability Observed trend of drier rainy season in many parts of the region Further stresses on water resources Transboundary watersheds Where the rain falls doesn t exactly show us the impacted areas Downstream analyses sometimes cross borders

27 Flood risk Utilizing the event-based feature in N-SPECT, a normal week can be compared to a very rainy week Application of similar downstream analyses

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