IAM contribution to the global stock take

Transcription

1 IAM contribution to the global stock take Detlef van Vuuren with input from: Keywan Riahi, Volker Krey, Heleen van Soest, Elmar Kriegler, Jae Edmonds

2 The Paris Agreement of 2015 Adopted by consensus on 12 December 2015; (Entered into force 4 November 2016) A global goal: Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels But the (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) form main mean of implementation

3 Article 14 The Conference of the Parties shall periodically take stock of the implementation of this Agreement to assess the collective progress towards achieving the purpose of this Agreement and its long-term goals (referred to as the global stocktake ) First Global Stocktake in 2023 and every five years thereafter; they will assesss progress towards achieving the overall objectives. Inform Parties in updating and enhancing their NDCs Intended to increase ambition First test stocktake in 2018 Talanoa dialogue For 1,5 deg C difference is crucial Countries are now formulating their mid-century strategies Source: mechanisms.de/en/introduction/theparis agreement and article 6/

4 Talanoa dialogue CD LINKS Oriented around Funded three under questions: EU Horizon 2020 (Global and national teams) Where are we? COMMIT Funded by DG Climate (Global and national teams) Where do we want to go? Stocktake activities coordinated by ClimateWorks How do we get there? Input 1.5 deg C report and evidence via the portal (stocktake gets IPCC AR report) UNEP Gap report Intention stimulate to further enhance ambition, no name calling. Integrated assessment models can contribute to this process RIPPLES Funded under EU Horizon 2020 (oriented mostly at European Countries) Global transformation pathways National low carbon development pathways

5 Obviously not a new question.. Source: Fawcett, et al. Science, 2015.

6 Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?) Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?) Assessment of the gap (where are we?) Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?) Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)..

7 Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?) Re directing investments from fossils to low carbon and efficiency solutions Peak in 2020 Steep emissions reduction Carbon neutral economy Electrification of end uses Challenges: Freight transport, aviation, shipping Heavy industry Carbon neutrality Net CO 2 removal Luderer et al. (2018) Residual fossil CO emissions in o C pathways. Nature Climate Change Power sector decarbonization Coal phase out Compensate residual emissions (incl. agricultural N2O emissions) Compensate budget overshoot

8 Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?) Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?) Assessment of the gap (where are we?) Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?) Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)..

9 Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?) Climate Policy Database Aim: open, collaborative platform to gather all climate-related policies, with full geographical and sectoral coverage. Platform: Semantic Media Wiki, an opensource, database driven extension of MediaWiki Niklas Höhne:

10 Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?) Assessment of the gap (where are we?) Current policies reduce GHGs by 3.5 GtCO 2 eq [2.0 to 5.5] Policies fall short of NDCs: 11.2 [ ] GtCO 2 eq. Gap with : 2 C : 23.7 [ ] GtCO 2 eq. 1.5 C : 30.3 [17.1 to 43.0] GtCO 2 eq. Emissions (GtCO 2 eq) % 17% 40% Baseline Current policies NDCs 2 C 1.5 C 50%

11 Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?) Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?) Assessment of the gap (where are we?) Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?) Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)..

12 Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?) Regional carbon budgets ( ) In all regions large gap between 1.5/2 and current policies Further strengthening needed in all countries Some countries close to meeting NDC, but those have larger gaps with Paris target scenarios

13 Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?)

14 Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?) Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?) Assessment of the gap (where are we?) Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?) Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)..

15 Kriegler et al. (2018) Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals. Env. Res. Lett. Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?) Policy packages include Renewable energy quotas Restrictions on new coal and gas power plants w/o CCS Energy efficiency improvements in industry and buildings Upscaling of industry CCS Fuel efficiency improvements in road transport and aviation Increase of electric vehicle share More efficient use of nitrogen in agriculture Eliminating deforestation and 10 mio ha/yr afforestation Moderate carbon pricing Gt CO2/year o C pathways NDCs Good Practice Net Zero Cost effective pricing

16 Kriegler et al. (2018) Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals. Env. Res. Lett. Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)

17 Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)

18 Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?) USA EU Japan Russia China India Brazil Van den Berg et al., under embargo

19 Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?) Mitigation risks Krey et al. (submitted) under embargo, do not cite Mitigation co-benefits adverse effect co-benefit

20 How to strengthen this role? Dialogue workshops between IAM modellers and policy makers and other stakeholders Cooperation with other research communities (transition sciences) Service scenarios (annual updates) Focus more on the opportunities/obstacles at the national level

21 This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No (CD LINKS).

22 ClimateWorks and UMD Starting to explore the idea of an independent Global Stocktake 1 st scoping workshop in Bonn, May 9 of 2018 Initial meetings focus on assessing interest Multiple interests and sensitivities