Summary Report. of the. Chinese-U.S. Workshop on the Human Dimensions. of Global Environmental Change. Held at. Peking University.

Transcription

1 I 1 Summary Report of the Chinese-U.S. Workshop on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Held at Peking University Beijing, China 12 through 16 May 1988

2 Summary Report Chinese-US Workshop on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change This report summarizes the findings of a joint Chinese-US Workshop on the Human Dimensions of GlobaJ Environmental Change, held in Beijing May, The workshop was co-chaired by Professors Tang Xiaoyan, Peking University, and Harold K. Jacobson, University of Michigan and included participants from the natural and social sciences. A list of Chinese and US delegation members is attached. The workshop was jointly sponsored by the Chinese State Education Commission and the US National Science Foundation under the Protocol on Cooperation in the Basic Sciences. Results of the workshop will be presented to the Beijing meeting of the General Assembly of the International Council of Scientific Unions, to the Tokyo International Symposium on Human Response to Global Change, and to other international and national fora concerned with human dimensions of global change. Workshop participants concluded that without a full exploration of the human dimensions of global environmental change, the conclusions sought from the International Geosphere- Biosphere Program (IGBP) will be incomplete. The workshop recommended that an international research program dealing with the human dimensions of global environmental change be designed to complement or to become part of the IGBP. Of particular concern in the design of such a program are those issues which, for both developing and developed countries, have primarily local, regional, or national effects but which ultimately have global consequences. Drawing on previous work in each country, participants presented papers on: demographic change and urbanization; technological change; economic growth, social development, and environmental protection; resource use; risk assessment; attitudes and behavior toward the environment; the consequences for the environment of institutional mechanisms, including government and markets; and the data requirements of an international research program on the human dimensions of global environmental change. Based on the discussion of these papers, the workshop proposed three broad topics for inclusion in an international research program on the human dimensions of global environmental change: social dimensions of resource use; assessment and perception of environmental change; and the impact of institutional mechanisms on the environment. Social Dimensions of Resource Use Population is a central factor in resource use, and must be considered a key issue in the study of the human dimensions of global environmental change. The size, rate of growth, age composition, and distribution by region and size of city are all significant characteristics of the population which affect linkages between city size, resource use, resource productivity, and environmental conditions. To understand better such linkages and to increase the accuracy of demographic forecasting, research should be conducted on such characteristics of human populations as the

3 determinants of fertility, particularly for rural populations and rural-urban migrants; the determinants of migration from rural areas to towns and cities; and the consequences of these demographic processes on the age composition of rural and urban populations. The research should involve collection and dissemination of survey data, development of analytical methods for estimating behavioral relationships from these data, and forecasting the effect of development and regulatory policies on demographic variables. Such research would help clarify the forcing function of demographic processes (including urbanization, environmental quality of urban and rural areas, fertility management, and land, water, and other resource use) on the earth system. Research should also be initiated on long-term changes in land and water use. In this research, historical data on land and water use changes should be related to demographic variables and socio-economic variables such as agricultural prices, characteristics of economic activity, per capita income, the institutional framework regulating land and water use, and levels and types of technologies. Questions to be addressed include: how do changes in city size affect resource demand and environmental quality? Are such changes linear or non-linear? What are the implications for resource use of high intensity agriculture and marginal agriculture? What are the different consequences of rural industry or concentrated urban industry? Further research should investigate the economic and social costs and benefits of avoiding environmental degradation and mitigating its effects. Clearer understanding of such costs and benefits could be particularly important in addressing management of potentially irreversible environmental change, such as depletion of the ozone layer and associated climate change. Assessment and Perception of Environmental Change Human activities that cause environmental degradation or attempt to prevent or ameliorate it ultimately stem from human perceptions of and reactions to environmental changes. Research which monitors and seeks to understand these perceptions and reactions should be a major component of an international research program on the human dimensions of environmental change. The workshop proposes a comprehensive framework for summarizing the major variables in the study of assessment and monitoring of human perceptions and reactions to a variety of environmental changes. This is not a master design for a single study or even a group of studies; its purpose is the facilitation of construction and comparison of a variety of empirical investigations. The goal of the research should be to fill in the framework as well as to allow the testing of specific hypotheses and the description of case studies. The two major parameters in the framework are time and populations; it is essential to sample many different times and different populations. Many background factors are of interest and importance; age, sex, education level, socio-economic status, values and beliefs. Finally, there are four major classes of measurement: risk assessment; perception and knowledge; attitudes; and behavior. The first refers to the best scientific evidence available of assessments of the environment. The second refers to people's perceptions of these natural science based assessments. The third refers to people's attitudes and values regarding both specific and general environmental concerns. The fourth refers to people's behavior, which in turn has an impact upon the environment. Thus, the first and fourth measurements connect people to the environment, and the second and third are the subjective mediating factors that control this impact. The framework suggests many hypotheses which could be examined in specific interview studies. The most general hypothesis is that behavior toward the environment cannot be predicted from information about objective conditions. To anticipate behavior, one must also -2-

4 know about perceptions and attitudes or values. Factors relating to the accuracy of perception could include: proximity of an individual to environmental damage; exposure to mass media; education; variety of life experiences; and age. Attitudes about the importance of environmental protection vary by such factors as: self interest; other attitudes relating, for instance, to the importance of economic development; deeper values such as the disposition to save or defer consumption; and attitudes toward risk. Exploring these issues would improve the ability to understand the relationships between objective conditions and behavior toward the environment. A parallel study should focus on danger areas, concentrating on environmental hazards, awareness of these hazards, and their management. The first step would be identification and mapping of high danger areas in global change: for example, those places where the effects of global environmental change are concentrated and threaten the long-term sustainability of the earth. In each of these areas, research would explore the extent to which the global changes are perceived by the populations affected, evolving attitudes toward the change, and associated behaviors. The adjustment, adaptation and management responses which have occurred and the effects that they have had on the trends of changes would be analyzed so that the interaction among hazards, attitudes and behaviors could be better understood. Impact of Institutional Mechanisms on the Environment This topic involves research on the interrelationship between institutions and environmental change. The proposed research falls in two broad categories. The first category involves exploring which governmental policies, laws, institutions, and implementation'al techniques facilitate or hinder different types of environment protection. In pursuit of these questions, concern must be devoted to the balance to be struck between consumption and conservation and between present and future generations. Comparative studies should be undertaken of various countries' strategies for environmental protection. What mix of techniques regulation, education, use of market mechanisms seems to work better, under what circumstances? Why have specific environmental laws and policies become more or less effective over time? To what extent can methods of environmental protection be transferred from one country to another? Within countries, why do specific environmental protection efforts vary in effectiveness? What factors place environmental issues on the political agenda of a country? Which laws and institutional arrangements facilitate anticipating environmental problems? To what extent do government policies for pricing and allocating natural resources, land, and water encourage waste and pollution? Research would seek to understand the effect of different international strategies for coping with such global issues as greenhouse effects, fossil fuel consumption, species conservation, and deforestation. What strategies are likely to be effective and enforceable? What are the likely impacts of these strategies on trade and economic growth? What forces environmental issues onto the international political agenda? What are the consequences of current international economic structures upon the environment? How can international institutions and laws deal with environmental problems that are not solely within the scope of national boundaries and which may involve significant scientific uncertainty? -3-

5 The second category of research involves exploration of the determinants of the capacity of governments and other institutions, such as markets, to address environmental issues. Such factors as the rate of population growth, national security concerns, popular attitudes, political structures, and decision- making processes would be considered. Subjects covered in the three broad areas clearly overlap. For the results of all the separate studies possible under these areas to fit together, it is essential to forge linkages between them. The participants in the workshop realize that this list of topics is not comprehensive. We are convinced, however, of the importance of these topics and of their essential contribution to any international research program on the human dimensions of global environmental change. The workshop strongly urges that an international research program on the human dimensions of global environmental change be launched. Further, the workshop participants urged Chinese and American authorities to seek support for research on this important element of global change, the human dimension. 7Ut Tang Xiaoyan 16 May 1988 Harold K. Jacobson 16 May

6 Participants in the Chinese-U.S. Workshop on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Chinese Participants Professor Tang Xiaoyan, Director of Center of Environmental Sciences, Peking University Professor Chen Changdu, Center of Environmental Sciences, Peking University Professor Zhou Erliu, Vice President of Peking University, Director of the Institute of Sociology Professor Ye Duzheng, Chairman China's National Committee for IGBP, The Chinese Academy of Sciences Professor Chen Jingsheng, Department of Geography, Peking University Associate Professor Cheng Zhengkang, Center of Environmental Sciences, Peking University Associate Professor Gao Guanmin, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University Dr. Gu Baochang, Department of Sociology, Peking University Professor Guan Boren, Center of Environmental Sciences, Peking University Professor Jiang Meiqiu, Department of Sociology, Peking University Ms. Li Huiming, Lecturer, Department of Economics, Nankai University Mr. Li Qiang, Lecturer, Department of Sociology, People's University of China Professor Lu Zhuoming, College of Economics, Peking University Dr. Ma Rong, Department of Sociology, Peking University Associate Professor Ni Shaoxiang, Department of Geo and Ocean Sciences, Nanjing University Associate Professor Ouyang Xin, Institute of Environmental Law, Wuhan University Associate Professor Shen Decan, Department of Psychology, Peking University Mr. Song Junling, Beijing Academy of Social Sciences Professor Wang Songpei, Director of the Institute for Rural Development.The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Mr. Zhang Zhifei, National Foundation of Natural Sciences Dr. Zeng Yi, Institute of Demography, Peking University -5-

7 Members of the Secretariat Pang Yan, Xie Jian, etc. Interpreters Gu Baochang, Nan Shi U. S. Participants Professor Harold K. Jacobson, Director, Center for Political Studies, The University of Michigan Ms. Alice Hogan, Senior Program Manager for China, National Science Foundation Professor Richard Bishop, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Wisconsin Professor William C. Clark, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Professor Philip E. Converse, Director, Institute for Social Research, The University of Michigan Dr. Roland J. Fuchs, Vice Rector, United Nations University Professor Robert Kagan, Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley Professor Roger Kasperson, Department of Geography, Clark University Professor Michael Oksenberg, Center for Chinese Studies, The University of Michigan Professor T. Paul Schultz, Department of Economics, Yale University Ms. Barbara Boyle Torrey, Chief, Center for International Research, Bureau of the Census Professor Amos Tversky, Department of Psychology, Stanford University Professor Edith Brown Weiss, Georgetown University Law Center, Georgetown University -6-