Transforming NOAA Water Resources Prediction

Transcription

1 Transforming NOAA Water Resources Prediction Presented to APA Water and Planning Connect Conference September 12, 2018 Peter Colohan, Director Service Innovation and Partnership Division Office of Water Prediction National Weather Service, NOAA 1

2 Impetus for Change: Growing Water Challenges Multiple Threats Population growth and economic development are stressing water supplies and increasing vulnerability A changing climate is impacting water availability and quality, increasing uncertainty An aging water infrastructure is forcing critical, expensive decisions Socio-economic risks of floods and droughts are escalating 2

3 Global Economic Risk Landscape Impact Extrem e Weathe r Events Wate r Crise s average Likelihood Source: World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2018, 13 th Edition 3

4 Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS) Collaborative Science-Based Solutions to Address Societal Needs USGS: Water Science and Information Collects and disseminates reliable, impartial, and timely information needed to understand the Nation's water resources to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters USACE: Water Management Strengthens our Nation's security, energizes the economy, and reduces risks from disasters NOAA: Integrated Water Prediction and Coastal Services Provides weather, water, climate, and coastal data, forecasts, and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy FEMA: Response and Mitigation Supports our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against respond to, recover from and mitigate all hazards 4

5 Water at NOAA Each NOAA Line Office has a Role in Water NMFS provides stewardship of the nation's ocean resources and their habitat. NESDIS provides secure and timely access to global environmental data and information from satellites and other sources to promote and protect the Nation's security, environment, economy, and quality of life. NOS provides science-based solutions through collaborative partnerships to address evolving economic, environmental, and social pressures on our ocean and coasts. NWS provides weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy. OAR conducts research to understand and predict the Earth system, develop technology to improve NOAA science, service and stewardship; work within user communities to understand research needs and transition the results so they are useful to society. 5

6 NOAA Water Initiative Common Goal: To transform water information service delivery to better meet and support evolving societal needs. Note: The NOAA Water Initiative is available at 6

7 Strategic Outcome: A Water- and Weather-Ready Nation Building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water, and climate events Involves the entire US Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise working 7

8 Stakeholder Priorities Flooding Drought Water Availability Water Quality Climate Change Need integrated understanding of near- and long-term outlook and risks 8

9 NWS Operational Infrastructure Western Region Weather Prediction Center National Water Center Office of Water Prediction 9

10 Enhancing the Current Forecasting System Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS): Improving probabilistic information to support risk-based decisions HEFS provides ensemble streamflow forecasts that seamlessly span lead times from one hour to one year or more. As all forecasting is inherently uncertain, one of the most pressing forecasting needs for water managers is to understand the uncertainty of the forecast. HEFS explicitly accounts for all aspects of uncertainty inherent in both the meteorological and hydrologic forecasts. 10

11 Multi-Year Strategic Science and Services Plan to Address Stakeholder Needs FY15-19 Core Capability: Centralized Water Forecasting FY16-20 Key Enhancement: Flash Flood and Urban Hydrology FY17- Major Integration: Integrated Water Prediction TBD Key Enhancement: Dry Side -- Drought and Post- Fire TBD Major Integration: Water Quality NOAA Water Model (NWM) operational [V1.0 July 2016] Street Level water forecasts for 2.7 million stream reaches Expand from only flow/stage forecasts to forecasts of full water budget Forecasts linked to geospatial informational to provide water intelligence Enhance NWM with nested hyper- resolution zoom capability and urban hydrologic processes Heightened focus on regions of interest (e.g. follow storms) Street level flood inundation forecasts for selected urban demonstration areas NWC increases guidance to NWS field offices to improve consistency and enhance services for flash floods Couple NWM with marine models to predict combined effects of storm surge, tide, wave, and riverine More complete picture of coastal storm impacts Summit-to-sea water prediction information linked to geospatial information to assess risk and vulnerability New service delivery model implemented increased stakeholder engagement and integrated information NWC Operations Center opens and provides national decision support services and situational awareness Couple NWM with shallow groundwater and transport models to predict low flows, drought and fire impacts Add NWM processes that capture subsurface water movement and storage during dry conditions Add NWM ability to track constituents (e.g. sediment, contaminants, nutrients) through stream network New decision support services for water shortage situations and waterborne transport NWC Operations Center services expand to include drought and post-fire decision support services Integrate enhanced NWM with key water quality data sets, models and tools to begin water quality prediction Incorporate water quality data from federal and State partners into NWM Link NWM output to NOAA ecological forecasting operations New decision support services for predicting water quality issues such as Harmful Algal Blooms New decision support services for emergencies such as chemical spills NWC operations center services expand to include water quality decision support services

12 National Water Center Center of excellence for water resources science and prediction Catalyst for transform NOAA s water prediction program and for enterprise collaboration Operations Center for water resources common operating picture and decision support services NWC has hosted more than 70 scientific meetings with more than 2,600 participants 12

13 National Water Model Movie (slide g show to view)

14 National Water Model V1.1/V1.2 Analysis and Forecast Operational Cycling Configurations Range Cycling Forecast Notes Analysis Hourly Simulation of current conditions, looking back 3 hours Uncertainty: Low Short-range Hourly 18 hours Uncertainty: Low Medium-range 4 x Day 10 days Uncertainty: Medium Long-range Daily Ensemble (16 members) 30 days Especially helpful in directing water resource management Analysis assimilates ~7,000 USGS observations Uncertainty: Medium + All configurations include reservoirs (1200+ water bodies parameterized with level pool scheme) 14

15 Beyond Streamflow Additional NWM Hydrologic Guidance NWM Gridded Analyses for 23Z on April 29th, 2017 Hourly Precipitation Depth to Saturation Ponded Water Surface Layer Soil Moisture Saturation Flash Flood Watch Flash Flood Warning

16 Streamflow Anomaly 16

17 Soil Moisture 17

18 Experimental NWM-based Guidance for Hurricane Harvey Time to High Flow based upon Short-Range (HRRR Forced) NWM Configuration Housto n Galveston Bay Provided Texas Department of Emergency Management forecasts of streamflow, streamflow anomaly, time to bankfull (i.e., full river channel), peak streamflow, time to peak streamflow, and time to recession (to bankfull). Routine coordination calls between OWP, NWC, WGRFC, SR ROC, WPC, and USACE 18

19 Experimental NWM-based Guidance for Hurricane Harvey Flood Inundation Maps based upon the NWM Analysis and 5-Day Forecast Maps supported emergency management efforts to stage supplies in non-flooded areas and to target relief efforts Texas Department of Emergency Management needed information on existing and maximum possible flood extent 19

20 NWM Streamflow Forecast for Hurricane Harvey 10 Day Forecast (left) and corresponding Analysis (right): 12Z Aug 22 12Z Sep 1 NWM Streamflow Forecast with GFS Precipitation Overlay NWM Streamflow Analysis with MRMS Precipitation Overlay Overall extreme streamflow pattern forecast several days in advance by NWM 20

21 Summary NOAA s water services are evolving New organization, cornerstone facility, and philosophy Implementing state-of-the-art technical approach 2 1

22 Transforming NOAA Water Resources Prediction THANK YOU! Peter Colohan NOAA Water Initiative NOAA/NWS Office of Water Prediction, National Water Center, National Water Model 22