THE FUTURE OF SOLAR FUELS. When could they become competitive? Remko Detz

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1 THE FUTURE OF SOLAR FUELS When could they become competitive? Remko Detz

2 WHAT ARE SOLAR FUELS? AND THEIR COSTS? 2 The future of solar fuels Source: Detz et al., 2018.

3 TNO 3500 employees 3 The future of solar fuels

4 WHAT ARE SOLAR FUELS? Source: Detz et al., The future of solar fuels

5 RENEWABLE FUELS 5 The future of solar fuels

6 WHY RENEWABLE FUELS? They could deliver a low-carbon or even zero energy carrier for the transport sector, as alternative for electricity. They could yield an additional way to compensate for the intermittency of renewable energy options, as storage medium, and directly provide fuel for heating. They could contribute to establishing an energy economy involving negative GHG emissions, even while e.g. the use of solar fuels in the transport sector itself only achieves carbon-neutrality at best. 6 The future of solar fuels

7 ECONOMICS OF RENEWABLE FUELS An important question for the feasibility of renewable fuels: What are their costs? We investigated the techno-economics of four renewable fuels: hydrogen (four pathways), methanol, syngas, and diesel. We calculated the costs of these renewable fuels both for the present, and for the future. 7 The future of solar fuels

8 7 ROUTES REN FUEL CATEGORY SYSTEM COMPONENT 1 EFF A SYSTEM COMPONENT 2 EFF A REN H 2 (AE) 2 Alkaline electrolysis (AE) 63% (68%) - - REN H 2 (PEM) 2 Polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis (PEM) 56% (64%) - - REN H 2 (SOE) 2 Solid oxide electrolysis (SOE) 68% (97%) - - REN H 2 (PEC) 4 REN Syngas 2 Photoelectrochemical H 2 O splitting (PEC) CO 2 solid oxide co-electrolysis (CO 2 -SOE) 10% % (96%) - - REN Methanol 2 Polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis (PEM) 56% (64%) Methanol plant (MP) 84% REN Diesel 2 CO 2 solid oxide co-electrolysis (CO 2 -SOE) 67% (96%) Fischer-Tropsch (FT) 80% A Eff = energy efficiency of the process (energy product out (LHV)/total energy in); for electrolysis the electric efficiency of the electrolyzer is given between brackets; for PEC the solar-to-hydrogen efficiency is given. 8 The future of solar fuels

9 LEVELIZED COSTS OF REN FUEL Base parameters used for our REN fuel production routes. PARAMETER FUEL PRODUCTION RATE SELECTED VALUE GJ/DAY PLANT LIFETIME 20 YEARS DISCOUNT RATE 12% US DOLLAR REFERENCE YEAR 2015 O&M COSTS H 2 O 5% OF CAPEX 2 $/TON CO 2 ELECTRICITY 50 $/TON $/KWH 9 The future of solar fuels

10 LEVELIZED COSTS OF REN FUEL 10 The future of solar fuels Source: Detz et al., 2018.

11 METHANOL (2015): SENSITIVITY Source: Detz et al., The future of solar fuels

12 COST REDUCTIONS THROUGH LEARNING-BY-DOING 12 The future of solar fuels

13 INVESTMENT COSTS PEM ELECTROLYSIS (FOR GJ OR KG/DAY PRODUCTION ~ 340 MW) Cum. Capacity in GW 30 GW 800 GW Varying the learning rate, cumulative annual growth rate, and decline in growth 13 The future of solar fuels

14 PROJECTED LEVELIZED COSTS 2050 Source: Detz et al., The future of solar fuels

15 COMPETITIVE BREAK-EVEN 15 The future of solar fuels Source: Detz et al., 2018.

16 CONCLUSIONS AND REMARKS In our projections, for the limited set of solar fuels and production pathways we investigated, competitiveness can be reached before Lots more needs to be researched, including other solar / renewable fuels and production pathways. In addition to determining the costs, we need to research the energy penalty, as well as the broader environmental footprint and co-benefits. We also need to increase our understanding regarding how, when and where to fit solar fuels into the overall energy system. Integrated assessment models allow for this, as well as for studying the value of solar fuels to compensate for the intermittency of renewables. This research can help deciding how to allocate limited means for fundamental research (e.g. on sustainable materials). 16 The future of solar fuels

17 FIRST DEMONSTRATIONS Innovators: Carbon Recycling International case Iceland, capacity 4000 ton/year Calculated optimistic (but not unrealistic at specific locations) scenario: CO 2-0 $/ton, DF 8%, O&M 3%, Electricity $ct/kwh, 95% electrolysis capacity Alkaline + CH 3 OH-plant (2015) -> 0.62 $/kg Methanex Ref Price (Oct 2018) -> 0.50 $/kg 17 The future of solar fuels

18 TNO AND SOLAR FUELS ECN part of TNO is involved in various projects related to solar fuel production, both on technology development and analysis. Topics: Biomass gasification Seaweed production CO 2 capture CO 2 utilization Electrolysis 18 The future of solar fuels

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