INCLUDING CLIMATE PROJECTIONS INTO THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS OF HYDROPOWER INVESTMENTS

Transcription

1 GEOS INCLUDING CLIATE PROJECTIONS INTO THE DECISION-AKING PROCESS OF HYDROPOWER INVESTENTS David Huard, Ouranos Nathalie Thiémonge, HQ ichael Vieira, H

2 CLIATE IPACT STUDIES CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS «CONDITIONAL WHAT-IF SCENARIOS» Uncertainty cascade Emissions scenarios GC RC Impact model Dynamical Downscaling

3 CLIATE IPACT STUDIES ARE ILL-SUITED FOR DECISION-AKING Lack of trust in one hypothesis discredits all downstream results Climate projections do not explore the full span of future climates Constantly require updates following new climate simulations Yield too many outcomes for practical use (just give me one simulation) No agreed-on probabilistic framework Lempert, Nakicenovic, Sarewitz & Schlesinger (2004) nature

4 sensitivity analysis ROBUST DECISION-AKING «LR-E» FRAEWORK L R Deeply uncertain variables Change in temperature, precipitation, electricity prices, etc. Levers, options, strategies available to decision-makers Plant upgrade options, operation rules. Relationships between metrics, levers and uncertainties Hydrological model, production curves, price models, etc. etrics or measures to compare the performance of levers Energy production, Net Present Value, Return on Investment E Expert estimates or advice Information about the future value of uncertain variables (e.g. climate projections)

5 WHAT IS THE SENSITIVITY OF INVESTENT DECISIONS TO CLIATE? Hydro-Québec Refurbishing of a fictitious run-ofthe-river power station; Different capacity upgrade options (number of turbines rerunnered); Construction of a fictitious northern hydroelectric powerhouse with dam; Different drawdown levels and installed capacity;

6 EPLORATION PHASE: COPUTE ETRICS OVER THE FULL SET OF FUTURE CONDITIONS L Dimensions 1. Change in precipitation [-20%, 70%] 2. Change in temperature [-1.5 C,+9 C] 3. Change in precipitation cycle [-20%, 60%] 4. Change in temperature cycle [0, 240 ] 5. Discount rate [-2%, 7%] 6. Energy price [10 $/Wh, 110 $/Wh] 7. Levers [3 capacity factors x 3 drawdown] 8. etrics [Flow, Spill, Energy, Firm Energy, NPV, IRR] # values

7 ALGORITHIC FLOWCHART Net present value Observed meteo record T Tc P Pc 3600 hydrological scenarios R Hydrological odel (SSARR) Flow L Cost Amortizement Accounting model R Discount rate Internal rate of return 9 power plant configurations L R Energy production odel (SIHYDE) Energy price model R Future energy price energy scenarios Spill Energy Firm energy

8 DATA VISUALIZATION APPLICATION scenarios-decision.ouranos.ca

9 A SHOWCASE FOR THE APPROACH Toy model of hydroelectricity power plant Four cases: Small reservoir / low capacity edium reservoir / high capacity edium reservoir / low capacity Large reservoir / high capacity Impose delta change on annual runoff & demand pattern Compute metrics Energy (total & firm) Spill flow Flooded area Drawdown variations NPV, IRR scenarios-decision.ouranos.ca

10 POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS FOR CONFLICTUAL DECISION-AKING PROCESSES Allocate surface and ground water between competing uses Select flood mitigation measures Choose strategy to protect potable water sources Choose the trajectory of a pipeline or electricity transmission cables It s fairly easy to agree on facts, but much more difficult to agree on values; If the decision process explicitly considers the values of stakeholders, the project is more likely to be socially acceptable; The RD approach outlines performance trade-offs between options, facilitating constructive discussions with stakeholders.

11 WHAT S SPECIAL ABOUT THIS APPROACH? OSTLY THE POINT OF VIEW Climate impact studies Agree-on-assumptions Decision-making studies Agree-on-decisions Results are conditional on the entire cascade of hypotheses Skeptics will reject results outright Results are interesting whether or not we trust the climate scenarios Assumptions Sensitivity Analysis Climate Scenarios Generation Energy Scenarios Climate Range Generation Energy Sensitivity Decisions Climate scenarios as expert advice Decisions Kalra et al. 2014

12 PROJECTION ENSEBLES AS EPERT ADVICE Impact studies are conditioned on climate scenarios Powerful scoping tool Require high level of trust Require high level of in-house expertise Ensemble size and spread limit usability scenarios-decision.ouranos.ca Send feedback and suggestions to Robust decision-making is informed by climate ensembles Scenarios interpreted as expert advice Focus on sensitivity and robustness Forced simplification/parameterization of CC signal Time and resource consuming