Renewable energy in the aquatic environment; filling the gaps in energy & our knowledge base. Nicola Teague APEM Chair IFM Welsh Branch

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1 Renewable energy in the aquatic environment; filling the gaps in energy & our knowledge base Nicola Teague APEM Chair IFM Welsh Branch

2 UK decarbonisation targets Climate Change Act target for UK to reduce carbon emissions by at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 Renewable Energy Directive UK target for 15% of energy consumption from renewable sources by fold increase in just over a decade Q % of demand from renewable energy Increasing investment in emerging technologies & new sources of supply Energy trilemma security of supply, affordability and low carbon

3 UK future energy market Requirement for reliable long-term energy supply Future outlook for current energy industry; By 2030: much of existing capacity is ageing or too polluting full closure of all coal plants by operational nuclear plants with a combined capacity of 8.9GW, all but 1 scheduled to close by 2030 solar could provide 5% of our electricity supply wind 30% low carbon energy could reach 60% with current energy mix Potential for even more with tidal power

4 Tidal Range UK Aquatic Renewable Energy Generate electricity from the height difference between high & low tide Tidal lagoons Use a barrier connected to 2 parts of the shore to impound a body of water Tidal barrages Tidal stream Wave Use a barrier to impound an estuary Uses kinetic energy from water currents to turn turbines Uses the seas natural movement (waves) as a source of energy to generate electricity Hydropower Power derived from the energy of falling or moving water Freshwater rivers & reservoirs

5 UK Aquatic Renewable Energy Market Global marine energy market - 76 billion, UK could capture 4 billion of that opportunity Estimated UK has around 50% of Europe s tidal energy resource UK ranked as top country in tidal top 40 for opportunity by population and 8 th for wave UK Government estimates wave & tidal stream energy has potential to generate ~20% of UK s current electricity needs; GW Theoretical scale of tidal lagoon opportunity in UK is between 25 & 37GW (1 billion watts) of installed capacity around 12% of current UK electricity demand 18 potential schemes Generating 55TWh of electricity per year Majority of potential; 8-12GW from Severn Estuary Top 7 schemes would provide 30 TWh of low carbon electricity with a total installed capacity of 18GW Hydropower England & Wales 1,692 sites, 146, ,400 Kw (1 thousand watts) potential

6 Wales place in the UK renewable energy market GW marine energy generating capacity Welsh coastline represents significant proportion of UK marine potential with the Severn Estuary offering some of the greatest tidal potential Wave capacity 5,600 MW (1 million watts) million funding prioritised for marine energy in wales 2 array scale demonstration zones 1 wave in Pembrokeshire & 1 tidal stream in Anglesey Marine Energy Wales, Marine Energy Pembrokeshire, Marine Centre Wales, Marine Energy Hub Hydropower 324 sites, 26,730-63,000 KW potential 18-25% of England & Wales potential

7 Tidal range Technology overview & state of the industry Several schemes considered in the past; Severn, Solway & Mersey estuaries Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon Awarded a Development Consent Order in 2015 Awaiting a marine licence Cardiff Tidal Lagoon In the design/assessment process Other TLP tidal lagoons; Newport, West Cumbria, Colwyn Bay & Bridgwater Bay North Wales Tidal Energy & Coastal Protection Ltd Hydropower Tidal energy impoundment & coastal protection A single project in early stages of development Current installed capacity of 1,676MW Generating over 5,885 GWh/year

8 UK Aquatic Renewable Energy Market Hot topic in the news Hendry review I am persuaded that power from tidal lagoons could make a strong contribution to UK energy security, as an indigenous & completely predictable form of energy As the environmental impacts of tidal lagoons are uncertain, I would therefore recommend that, should tidal lagoons be built, the Government should require a high level of on-going monitoring of environmental impact

9 The aquatic renewable energy sector & fish Development of energy generation schemes in the aquatic environment will inevitably interact with fish populations & depending on location, their designated conservation sites Impacts could include; Injury or mortality during turbine/sluice passage Alterations to migration; cues, flows, passage Habitat change (e.g. intertidal loss) Water quality changes Indirect effects (e.g. predation, infection) Fisheries Could impact on species populations/condition assessments & site integrity

10 The Severn Estuary, marine renewables & fish Severn Estuary Conservation designations; SAC s (Estuary & Rivers) & Ramsar 7 Annex II migratory fish species Fish assemblage up to 163 species, 98 fish VER s Recreational & commercial fisheries DECC Severn Barrage feasibility study; Reductions in population size Local extinctions Impacts on condition assessment & site integrity Social & economic impacts on fisheries

11 Marine The legislative framework & assessment requirements Development Consent Order (DCO) Marine Licence Environmental permits Assessment of impacts against designations; WFD, HRA, Eels Regs Hydropower An abstraction/impoundment licence Won t prevent achievement of WFD objectives Won t effect designated sites or species Won t impact on recreational angling opportunity Fish pass approval Will maintain or improve fish passage In-combination effects Requirement to consider combined potential impacts of multiple schemes e.g. tidal lagoons on south welsh coastline Requires a high level of modelling of impacts with novel methods

12 Populations Gaps in knowledge populations & conservation What are species population sizes? How can we measure/model them? What information is required? What proportions may interact with a scheme? Future populations over 120 year project lifetime What level of impact is considered acceptable? Conservation impact assessments What is the current status? What level of loss impacts status & how can it be assessed? How can we judge impact on site integrity, GES, escapement?

13 Gaps in knowledge fish behaviour & habitat use What is the behaviour of fish in the environment of the scheme Swimming speeds & behaviours Migratory routes Mode of migration i.e. directional, searching, trail following Residence times Homing/straying What habitats do they use? Habitat utilisation during residence/migration &periodicity Juvenile shad Eels Lamprey Sea trout

14 Gaps in knowledge interactions & avoidance How will fish interact with a scheme Will they display avoidance behaviour? What level of avoidance will they display & what will it be associated with? Flows Noise & vibration Visual Once in the lagoon what is their fate? Implications for impounded waterbodies What are the impacts if pass through the turbines Injury/mortality rates Modelling

15 Mitigation & compensation Design optimisation Mitigation Innovation & advancement in turbine design Location of turbines Operation regime Fish passage mechanisms Fish exclusion & diversion Predator control Mitigation/compensation Addressing limiting factors in the freshwater environment Estuarine habitat creation

16 Monitoring Pathfinder project Requirement to monitor to assess uncertainties & review modelled impacts Requirement to monitor the effects of mitigation & compensation

17 Trilemma: Dilemma/trilemma? Protected fish populations Balance knowledge & uncertainty Low carbon & low cost secure energy sources