Agora Verkehrswende: Transforming Transportation to secure tomorrow s mobility.

Transcription

1 Agora Verkehrswende: Transforming Transportation to secure tomorrow s mobility. 12 Insights into the Verkehrswende Christian Hochfeld Executive Director, Agora Verkehrswende Draft Presentation, Canada November, 2017

2 Agora Verkehrswende Transforming Transportation Who we are. Picture: Greenpeace Initiative by Stiftung Mercator and European Climate Foundation Independent Think Tank and high-level Council of Agora Project Duration: Mission: Scenarios, Discourse and Strategies for the Decarbonisation of Transport until 2050 Focus: starting with national land-based transport in Germany in an European context 2

3 The Council of Agora Verkehrswende The Council is chaired by Achim Steiner, former Under Secretary General of UN and former Executive Director of UNEP. Policy: EU-COM; 5 national ministries; main parlimentary groups; 2 federal states; 2 city mayors; 2 Governmental agencies Economy: BMW; DB; DP-DHL; innogy; Robert Bosch; Siemens; VW; VDV Civil Society & Science: German Automobile Association; Consumer Association; 3 environmental NGOs; Labor Union; 3 academics Picture: Achim Steiner at the Launch of Agora Verkehrswende The full list of the council members under: 3

4 Agora Verkehrswende Transforming Transportation How we work. Stakeholder Team of Agora Verkehrswende Council of the Agora Impulse Mobility Revolution Director Energy Transition in Transport Central Services Impulse Regular exchange on projects with temporary task forces Studies, Events etc. Internal exchange with standing members of the Council of Agora Verkehrswende Source: Agora Verkehrswende 4

5 Publication: 12 Insights on Transforming Transportation in Germany Download link: Agora Verkehrswende Transforming Transportation ECF Board, 6 June

6 Transforming the transport sector is crucial for the success of the clean energy transition.

7 In the past 25 years the Transport Sector in Germany could not contribute to CO 2 Emission Reductions. Relative Development of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for different Sectors since

8 Federal Climate Protection Plan 2050: The Verkehrswende is an official goal of the Government. For the first time ever the German transport sector has an own ambitious emission reduction target. National Sectoral Climate Protection Goals Emission for 2030 reduction since 1990 and plan for the next 14 years (in mio. tons of CO2) Total Energy Building Transport Industry Agriculture Source: Agora Verkehrswende 8

9 The Verkehrswende 2050 will be enabled by the Mobility Revolution and the Energy Transition in Transport. The Verkehrswende enables the German transport sector to be carbon neutral by The Mobility Revolution reduces the energy consumption of the German transport sector based on Avoid, Shift and Improve. Source: Agora Verkehrswende. The Energy Transition in Transport covers the remaining energy demand of the German transport sector with renewable energy. 9

10 In cities, the mobility transition has already begun.

11 Agora Network Urban Verkehrswende Source: Agora Verkehrswende 11

12 The Mobility Transition has already started in cities around the world The interlinked public transport is the backbone of urban transport. Private transport becomes more public, public transport becomes more private. Fewer cars leave more space for other land use. Walking and cycling comes with high benefits for the city at lowest costs. Picture: istock Sustainable urban transport policy receives more political support. 12

13 The Mobility Alliance Public Transport Suburban train Underground Tram Bus Taxi Non-motorised Transport Bicycle Pedestrians Collaborative Mobility Carsharing Ridesharing Bikesharing Source: Agora Verkehrswende 13

14 Shared Mobility and Penetration of New Technologiesgoes hand in hand! Autonomous vehicles need collaborative mobility. Source: OECD-ITF

15 Pedestrians and cyclists are a benefit for cities. The Economist: In China, Bikes are back! Pictures: The Economist (l.); Christian Hochfeld (r.) 15

16 Driverless vehicles are ideal for shared use.

17 Trends and Potentials of Digitalisation in Transport Optional Synergies between Automatisation, Collaborative Mobility and Connectivity Source: Agora Verkehrswende 17

18 Even a Small Number of Driverless Cars Can Increase Traffic. Usage forms and possible effects of vehicle automatisation Source: Agora Verkehrswende 18

19 Electrification is key to an energy transition in transport.

20 Options for the post fossil future of transport Renewable energy from sun and wind replaces fossil fuels. INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE Liquid or gaseous Bio Fuels Electromobility (incl. PHEV, REEX and Trolley Trucks) Energy Transition in Transport Liquid or Gaseous Power Generated Fuels (PtX) Fuel Cell Vehicles with renewably generated Hydrogen Source: Figure by INFRAS ALTERNATIVE PROPULSION 20

21 Battery Electric Vehicles are the Benchmark concerning energy efficiency and costs. From well to wheel: Transparent LCA of BEV Source: UBA 2016, Weiterentwicklung und vertiefte Analyse Umweltbilanz von Elektrofahrzeugen 21

22 Core options for the Energy Transition in Transportation (until 2050) Core options for the Energy Transition in Transport by mode (until 2050)? LDV HDV Bus BEV <<<<<<< as benchmark Preferential <<<<<<< technology open BEV <<<<<<< as benchmark Aviation Power-to-Liquid as alternative <<<<<<< to Biokerosene Maritime PtX <<<<<<< indispensable Rail Complete <<<<<<< electrification Source: INFRAS/Quantis

23 Differenzkosten in Mrd. The direct use of Electricity in LDV is the option with the lowest cost of decarbonisation for the national economy. Accumulated Difference Costs for Technology Options 2050 compared to BAU Energiebereitstellung Tankstellen & Ladeinfrastruktur Fahrzeuganschaffung Gesamtsystem Fl+ E+ CH4+ H2+ Source: Öko-Institut, INFRAS, DVGW, im Auftrag UBA 23

24 Carbon-neutral fuels can supplement electricity from solar and wind.

25 Process steps for the production of hydrogen, PtG-methane and PtLfuels from renewable energies Electricity from renewable energies Methanation Electrolysis RE-methane Hydrogen H 2 CO 2 Water RE-petrol RE-diesel RE-kerosene Fischer-Tropsch process Source: Agora Verkehrswende Agora Verkehrswende Transforming Transportation ECF Board, 6 June

26 Synthetic Fuels could serve as a supplement to electricity from sun and wind but no alternative. GHG-emissiones related to energy demand in 2020 (Well-to-Wheel) Source: JRC, EUCAR, CONCAWE (2014b). 26

27 Electricity demand from renewable energies for different propulsion and fuel combinations (per 100 km/passenger car) Battery electric vehicle + direct use of electricity Source: own calculation and illustration, DLR, Ifeu, LBST, DFZ (2015), p. 15 Fuel cell electric vehicle + hydrogen Combustion engine vehicle + Power-to-Gas Combustion engine vehicle + Power-to-Liquid 27

28 Future Battery Electric Vehicles will be cheaper than ICE Vehicles fueled by PtX. Comparison of Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of BEV and ICE (with imported PtX) in 2030 (same CO 2 - Emissions). vehicle costs fixed costs energy costs other costs Source: Agora Verkehrswende. 28

29 The freight sector needs an improved rail system and carbon-neutral roads.

30 Billion ton kilometres The decarbonisation of freight transport requires more cooperation between rail and (decarbonised) trucks! Maximum potential in Germany to shift freight transport from road to rail. Reference scenario Rail Road River Reference scenario Source: IFEU/INFRAS/LBST

31 Power supply and transport benefit from sector coupling.

32 Potential Difference : Overview AC & DC Charging Points in Europe Source: BMW Navigation Systems in Europe 32

33 Rethinking the development and Financing of transport infrastructure.

34 The transport transformation will be Driven by its benefits to society.

35 Mt CO2e Business-As-Usual-Scenario: Projektionsbericht German Government 2017 (with measures) Transport demand according to Verkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030: +10% in passenger transport % in freight transport CO 2 -Emissions: -9% für total transport in DE Gap to target of German Climate Action Plan 2050 for year 2030 ~ 50 Mio. t GHG-emissions from transport in Germany Target KSP Anmerkung: Werte gelten für das sogenannte Mit-Maßnahmen-Szenario (MMS) Source: Projektionsbericht der Bundesregierung

36 Basics for defining the Agora Scenarios All scenarios should meet the target of Climate Action Plan Efficiency & Emob (EU) Fiscal (National) Sz. A Sz. B Sz. C Sz. D Ambition level increasing increasing rel. low rel. low Fuels at 7 % Up to 32% = focus of scenario Scenario A-C: biofuels share and limit values are pre-defined, national measures are an addition to meet the (national) target Scenario D: limit values and national measures remain at a low level, biofuels share has to be increased to the point where a reduction of 40% is possible. 36

37 Measures in detail Scenario A Focus of Scen A are EU efficiency measures and electric mobility Very ambitious EU efficiency targets: cars: 60 g/km (WLTP) in 2025 und 30g/km (WLTP) in limiting Real world gap to 15% as of trucks: introduction limit values in 2020, then ~ 4,1% p.a. In addtion: complementary national measures to promote electric vehicles (more charging infrastructure, bonus-malus scheme) Supplementary fiscal instruments Energy taxes: taxing diesel and petrol fuel at the same level by Combined with reduced Kfz-Steuer for diesel. Increase in energy tax 2024 to 2028 about 10 cent in total (would result in km cost Diesel: +35%; Benzin: +22%) Extendeing HDV toll to all roads as of 2025 Company car tax: distance-dependent element Aditional national support measures: Cycling support with additional 600 Mio. Euro p.a. (7,50 Euro pro EW) Public transport support (ÖV) until % increase in supply 37

38 Results Scenario A: Technology mix for new cars Scen A focusses on very high efficiency and direct electrification and is influenced by aspirative OEM goals 2025 BEV: 19% NZL PHEV: 34% NZL 2030 BEV: 49% NZL (14% im Bestand) PHEV: 33% NZL (19% im Bestand) 38

39 Results Scen A: Energy demand Electricty demand of tranport quaduples to roughly 50 TWh in 2030 Total energy demand is reduced by 30% compared to

40 Results Scenario A: Greenhouse Gas Emissions up to 2030 Scen A reaches the German climate targets for transport by Reduction versus 1990 ca. 41% 40

41 Results Scen A: reduction potential of individual measures Estimate of GHG-reduction in Mio. t compared to

42 Measures in detail Scenario C - 1 Scenario C focusses mainly on (national) fiscal instruments Less ambitious EU efficiency standards: cars: no limit value 2025, for 2030 reduction of 20% compared to 2021 => 99 g CO2 (WLTP), no limit Real World Gap, real reductions therefor only about 10% trucks: introduction 2025, ~ 2,5% p.a. efficiency increase Main fiscal Instruments Energy tax: adjusting diesel and petrol tax Car toll: ca. 10 ct (4 ct. Infrastructure plus environmental cost) Truck toll: including external costs (ca. 17 ct/km) Company car tax: distance-based Speed limit 120 km/h on highways as of

43 Measures in detail Scenario C - 2 Scenario C focusses mainly on (national) fiscal instruments Freight Transport: Increased shift to Rail (23% of Modal Split in 2030) Further national Stimulant Measures: Cycling: 800 Mio. Euro p.a. (10 Euro per EW) Public Transport: 25% increase in supply Liveable Cities : Parking, Tempo 30, Carsharing etc. 43

44 Results Scenario C: Technology mix for new cars 2025 Batterie: 6% NZL Plug-In: 13% NZL 2030 Batterie: 8% NZL (4,6% im Bestand) Plug-In: 13% NZL (9% im Bestand) 44

45 Results Scenario C: Greenhouse Gas Emissions up to 2030 Gap to target of about 10 Mio. t Reduction versus 1990 ca. 34% 45

46 Results Szenario C: reduction potential of individual measures Estimate of GHG-reduction in Mio. t compared to

47 Measures in detail Scenario D Scenario D focusses mainly on climate protection via alternative fuels Low ambition level on efficiency and national measures affecting transport demand (i.e. like business as usual (BAU)) Reduction is achieved almost completely via power-to-x (PtX) fuels This means in 2030: in total 32% alternative fuels (7% biofuel and 25% PtX fuel) Fuel cost almost twice as high as in business as usual Higher production cost for decarbonised fuel is paid for by user 47

48 Additional electricity demand for transport until 2030 comparing scenarios A, C and D an energy conversion effficiency of 40% for the production of power-to-x fuel results in an additional energy demand of about 350 TWh (for Germany) in Scenario D ein It is practically impossible to imagine, that this energy demand until 2030 can be met with renewable energy in Germany 48

49 Results from Sceanario Assessment: Final Energy Demand

50 Results from Scenario Assessment: Technology-Mix in LDV stock 50

51 Draft Conclusions - 1 The ambitious climate protection targets from KSP for transport in Germany until 2030 can be achieved - in different ways. A complex combination of measures on different level (EU, Germany, Federal States, Municipalities and Companies) in needed, which indicates the strong need for coordination. Even with very ambitious EU CO2 regulation for LDV and early introduction of CO2 regulations for HDV additional (fiscal) measures are needed to fulfil the targets. 51

52 Draft Conclusions - 2 To reach the clmate protection targets of KSP ambitiouos European CO2 regulation (Well-To-Tank!) is needed already 2025, that the continuous increase of efficiency of electric vehicles impacts the vehicle stock significantly. If the design of the European CO2 regulation is not ambitious enough the targets of KSP can not be met neither with ambitious national fiscal instruments which could be acceptable. It is assumed that this would also be the case for many other European countries. Low ambition of European CO2 regulaton could lead to disintegration of the single market! The strategy to reach the climate targets primarily by (imported) low-carbon synthetic fuels (PtX) would be related to various risk! All ambitious climate protection strategies in the transport sector would need a significant extension of renewables in electricity through appropiate regulation. 52

53 Thank you very much for your attention! Comments or Questions? Please do not hesitate to contact me: Anna-Louisa-Karsch Str. 2 D Berlin T +49 (0) F +49 (0) M info@agora-verkehrswende.de Agora Verkehrswende is a joint initiative of Stiftung Mercator Foundation and the European Climate Foundation (ECF).