UKCIP tools to assist decisionmaking

Transcription

1 DfT Wrkshp Lndn 7th December 2007 UKCIP tls t assist decisinmaking Alex Harvey Science Liaisn Officer UKCIP

2 Outline Intrductin t UKCIP Tls t help rganisatins assess impacts and adapt

3 The UK Climate Impacts Prgramme (UKCIP) Helps rganisatins t assess hw they might be affected by climate change, s that they can prepare fr its impacts. set up by UK Gvernment in 1997 whlly funded by Defra based at Envirnmental Change Institute, University f Oxfrd Wrks thrugh: stakehlder-led research Reginal partnerships Sectral grups Prvides cmmn tls and datasets. All freely available n request, r ver the internet

4 Current UKCIP tlkit Decisin-making framewrks Risk, uncertainty and decisin-making framewrk Assessing f impacts and vulnerability Csting methdlgy Adaptatin Wizard Business Areas Climate Impacts Nttingham Declaratin Actin Pack Assessment Tl (BACLIAT) (NDAP) Lcal Climate Impacts Prfile (LCLIP) Scenaris plausible depictins f the future Case studies Adaptatin Actins UKCIP02 climate scenaris (next set in 2008) Guidance Impacts database (nt live) UKCIP sci-ecnmic scenaris Identifying adaptatin ptins

5 Decisin making framewrks Risk, uncertainty and decisin-making framewrk range f greenhuse gas emissins scenaris, climate mdels & scenaris unknwn prbabilities natural climate variability t uncertainty abut impacts these climate changes will have n any system uncertainty abut whether adaptatin measures will wrk Hw can decisins be made?

6 UKCIP/EA reprt prvides a decisin-making framewrk fr managing climate risks framewrk describes prcess fr appraisal and management f risks and uncertainties similar t thers used fr crprate risk management recgnisable t decisin-makers enables climate risks t be mainstreamed within existing prcesses

7 A framewrk t supprt gd decisin-making in the face f climate risk Main drivers behind decisin e.g. Hw can we ensure value fr mney, safety and reliability? Criteria fr Stage 5 legislatin, risk attitude Tiered risk assessment climate and nn-climate factrs - impacts Bring inf tgether Final checks D the adaptatin ptins meet the criteria? adaptatin

8 Decisin-making framewrks Adaptatin Wizard Adaptatin wizard entry level guide t impacts assessment structured as a decisin-making prcess Available frm UKCIP website sn

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10 Appraches t Explring Impacts Scenari Apprach Fcus n likely changes Science led Predict and decide Climate islated BUT Temptatin t wait Vulnerability Apprach Fcus n critical activities Experience led Manage current risks Climate mainstreamed BUT Histry dependant

11 Scenari Apprach: UKCIP02 CC Scenaris Prduced in 2002 by Tyndall Centre and Hadley Centre, funded by Defra Observatins f recent change Scenaris data: fur emissins scenaris: L, ML, MH, H three time perids: 2020s, 2050s, 2080s 50km fr 4 seasns and annual average future changes in daily extremes (50km) expert judgements f levels f cnfidence in changes uncertainties illustrated with ther mdels

12 UKCIP Scenaris Gateway What is available? Maps prduced fr the UKCIP02 Scientific Reprt On-line applicatin frm fr (free) licences t use UKCIP02 data Data archive f UKCIP02 data fr a range f climate variables at bth 50km and 5km spatial reslutin Guidance including suggestins hw t use the UKCIP02 climate change scenaris and discussin f uncertainties UKCIP02 Extras details abut new prducts and tls that have becme available since 2002 which add value t the UKCIP02 scenaris

13 UK 21 st Century Climate Scenaris (UKCIP08) UKCIP08 builds n the knwledge frm and cntains greater detail than UKCIP02 Previus climate scenaris (e.g. UKCIP02) were single mdel runs ther mdels prduced different results Imprtant t quantify uncertainty f climate mdels One way f ding this is t use many mdel simulatins the user will be presented with a spread f results

14 The UKCIP08 Tl Kit A set f high-level headline messages will give a natinal verview f the main changes described by UKCIP08 Fcus will be n cmmnly used climate variable such as prjected changes in rainfall, temperature and sea-level The user interface will allw: Creatin f individual maps, prbabilistic plts (PDFs, CDFs), plume diagrams, scatter graphs and bx plts Custmised numerical prducts such as GIS frmat files An integrated Weather Generatr a tl that will allw statistically derived expressins f the future typical daily and hurly weather cnditins Reprts including: Climate trends Prbabilistic changes f climate change Marine Prjectins Summary Reprt Briefing reprt

15 Likelihd f Hazard frthcming UKCIP08 CC Scenaris Prbabilistic infrmatin: Use f ranges t reflect uncertainty Single value prjectin (UKCIP02) Average change in temperature Effectively a best guess Prbabilistic prjectin (UKCIP08) Shws range f mdel results Plan accrding t attitude t risk E.g. Max expected change wrst case scenari Minimum expected change = ~1 C Best guess f expected change = ~2 C Prbability Maximum expected change = ~6 C Change in temperature

16 Scenari Apprach: BACLIAT Impacts Assessment Tl A generic prcess fr cnsidering climate impacts n business areas 1. Markets 2. Lgistics 3. Prcess 4. Finance 5. Peple 6. Premises Management respnse

17 Vulnerability Apprach: LCLIP - Lcal Climate Impacts Prfile LCLIP tl designed fr lcal authrities but ther applicatins are pssible 1. Research jurnalistic surces: Recrd real experience f actual weather events and their impacts in the lcality ver last 5 years. 2. Share headlines and identify threshlds: Infrm senir managers f main incidents in their area identify key threshlds fr critical weather variables 3. Assemble data abut future weather and climate frmulate details f critical threshlds t interrgate future climate scenaris t prvide data fr technical adaptatin decisins. 4. Make histrical cmparisns if yu want!

18 Vulnerability Impacts f weather n rads in Oxfrdshire Rads and lcal Transprt Increased flding frm inadequate drainage Deteriratin f highway infrastructure (embankments, bridges, signs etc) Changes in rad safety (intense precipitatin events, summer heat) Changes t the management f landscape and bidiversity (grwth rates, sil ersin)

19 Impacts Assessment Sci-Ecnmic Scenaris Climate change will take place in a sciety very different frm tday s We need t develp views f the wrld in which future climate changes will be experienced Changes in sciety may be mre imprtant than changes in climate t yur rganisatin. Fr example since 1907: UK ppulatin increased by 50%, husing has stck trebled and life expectancy has increased frm 45 t 75 fr men and 49 t 80 fr wmen.

20 Fur Sci-Ecnmic Scenaris fr the UK Autnmy Gvernance NATIONAL ENTERPRISE LOCAL STEWARDSHIP Cnsumerism CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT Values Cmmunity WORLD MARKETS GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY Interdependence

21 Magnitude f Cnsequence Csting the impacts f CC in UK Allws users t cst the impacts f climate change with and withut adaptatin. Can be applied at all levels (site, lcal, reginal, natinal). Includes techniques fr csting impacts n market and nn-marketed gds health, time lss, bidiversity, cultural heritage, recreatin. Cnsiders csting issues relating t lng time hrizns. Simplified spreadsheet versin being tested (impacts nly)

22 Understanding Adaptatin Optins Building Adaptive Capacity (BAC) Creating the infrmatin, scial capital and supprtive cnditins that are needed as a fundatin fr delivering adaptatin actins. Delivering Adaptatin Actin (DAA) Taking actin that helps t reduce vulnerability t climate risks, r t explit pprtunities.

23 Adaptatin Optins Explres the principles, nature and characteristics f adaptatin and a taxnmy f adaptatin ptins. Designed as a dynamic dcument which is being cntinually updated. Includes: guiding principles n identifying and selecting adaptatin ptins explanatin f criteria: n-regrets, lw-regrets, win-wins and flexible ptins examples

24 Adaptatin Optins UKCIP TOOL: Adaptatin Actins Database Database cntaining examples f real adaptatin (bth BAC and DAA). Web-based (hsted n UKCIP website). Searchable by: Sectr Regin Adaptatin type

25 Hw have these tls been used?

26 Reginal and Sectral studies

27 Stakehlder-led research: Building Knwledge fr a Changing Climate (BKCC) research tpics include: urban planning urban drainage energy demand and supply heritage buildings embankment infrastructure underpinned by: high-reslutin climate scenaris sci-ecnmic scenaris & adaptive capacity risk management methdlgies BIONICS Bilgical and Engineering Impacts f Climate Change n Slpes

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