Energy Crisis and New Strategies for Wind Power Development in Japan

Transcription

1 Energy Crisis and New Strategies for Wind Power Development in Japan Shigeo Nishikizawa Tokyo Institute of Technology, Department of Environmental Science and Technology, G5-12, 4259 Nagatsuta, Midoriku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan Summary 1. The energy policy of Japan had targeted nuclear power to be the most dominant power source in order to enhance energy security after Arab oil crises in the 1970s. Although renewable energies had not been promoted due to disadvantageous cost, the energy policy has drastically changed by the nuclear disaster of the Tohoku March 11, 2011 earthquake. Prime Minister Noda declared to target not only pursuing zero operation of nuclear power plant by the 2030s but also introducing 40% of renewable energies of total power generation by the 2030s. 2. According to a survey conducted by the Ministry of the Environment, wind power had the highest potential compared to other renewable energies in Japan. As of march 2012, Japan has about 420 wind farm plants including about 1,870 turbines in total. As the size of the wind turbines have become bigger due to the need for increased profitability, potential environmental impacts have been revealed in recent years. Accordingly, a large number of conflicts caused by wind power projects have occurred due to operational noise, bird collisions, spoiled scenery, shadow flicker and so forth. 3. The number of complaints caused by operational noise was the highest. Perception of noise depends not only on installation scale of sites but also on psychological aspects. A previous survey demonstrated that people feel wind turbine noise more unpleasant than that of aircraft, road traffic and railways. Bird collision is another serious factor driving developers to withdraw projects in Japan. In the case of bird collision issues of golden eagles, it was difficult to build consensus in spite of the high quality public participation process in Minenohara wind farm project. The phenomenon applies not to Not-In-My-Back-Yard (NIMBY) syndrome but to Not-In-Any-Bird s-yard (NIABY) concept. 4. Regarding mitigation measures for operational noise issues, there are several effective options both in the planning phase and the implementation phase. A layout modification through which the location of turbines is redesigned is an adequate way in the former. An operational adjustment or soundproofing can be effective measures in the latter. On the other hand, bird collision is more difficult to build consensus due to the lack of effective mitigation measures. As a previous study demonstrated that collision risk of migration birds (e.g. common eiders) is negligible in good visibility conditions, operational adjustments could be effective to protect birds. 5. For sound promotion of wind power development, three pillars, software, hardware and mindware should be established. Relating software, although the Japanese EIA system has been just amended to be applied to wind farms, SEA system for adequate site decisions (e.g. excluding golden eagle habitats) still remains with a plenty of room for improvement. Regarding hardware, bottom-mounted near-shore wind turbines are now progressing in Japan. Off-shore turbines have several advantages in terms of better wind conditions and less environmental impacts such as operational noise. In the case of Kamisu wind farm which was hit by the massive Tsunami caused by the earthquake, the turbines restarted in three days after the earthquake. Moreover, the floating technology for off-shore wind turbines can be another driving force for sound promotion of wind developments in Japan. Regarding mindware, both collaborative planning and ownership sharing system to enhance community acceptance of wind power developments need to be improved. Keywords: wind power, environmental impact assessment, energy policy, wind farms address: nishikizawa.s.ab@m.titech.ac.jp

2 1. Energy crisis and policy changes in Japan 1.1. Overview of energy policy before the Tohoku March 11, 2011 earthquake After Arab oil crises in the 1970s, energy security was targeted as a key policy in Japan. The policy promoted to reduce excessive dependence on oil and to achieve energy saving. As nuclear power plants had already been introduced as an alternative energy resource with no CO2 emission at that time, it was considered as the most dominant measure for energy security. Although renewable energy also became known as an important potential source of energy, its promotion hasn t been successful so far. Wind power capacity comprised only about 6% of total primary energy supply of Japan as of If hydro electric power is eliminated from the number, it is less than 1% of total primary energy supply. The Strategic Energy Plan 2010 of Japan, which was established with a view to set the basic direction of the national energy policy according to the Basic Act on Energy Policy, was released by the Government in June, It consisted of three fundamental principles; energy security, environmental protection and efficient supply. According to those principles, targets for 2030 were indicated as follows 1) : (a) Double the energy self-sufficiency ratio in energy supply from 18% to 36% (b) Raise the zero-emission power source ratio from 34% to about 70% Nuclear power ratio from 26% to 53% of total power generation by 2030 Renewable energy power ratio from 9.7% to 21% of total power generation by 2030 It was likely to be assumed that nuclear power was considered as the dominant and sole measure to achieve target (a). Actually, the policy had set promotion of nuclear power to build 9 new or additional plants by 2020, and at least 14 plants no later than Moreover, it was also showed that the government planned to increase the nuclear power ratio in the total power source to 53% from 26% by On the other hand, renewable energy was merely set at 21% from 9.7% by Although, it seemed to be progressive, the target was actually not proactive. For one thing, the 9.7% of renewable energy power ratio was mostly comprised of hydro electric power generation which was equal to 8.5%. Secondly, the target of wind power ratio was only 1.7% from 0.4% by In other words, there was no doubt that renewable energy had not been considered as a dominant alternative power source until the nuclear disaster caused by the Tohoku earthquake in March 11, Drastic change of energy policy caused by the earthquake The severe nuclear disaster at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant caused by the huge earthquake and the massive tsunami gave rise to a wide spread debate on the energy policy all over Japan. The massive tsunami caused by the earthquake which hit the Tohoku area, left 16 reactors from 5 nuclear plants in the Tohoku area shut down. Hence, even workable reactors were deliberately stopped one after another in order to examine the safety and to secure surroundings around nuclear plants. Consequently, all of the 54 nuclear reactors including 4 decommissioned ones were completely stopped on May 5, 2012, for the first time in 42 years (Two nuclear reactors in Fukui prefecture have restarted since September, 2012). Obviously, this situation is an unprecedented crisis, fundamentally changing the understanding of energy issues by Japanese people. A Deliberative poll was conducted by the national government to clarify the public opinion regarding the future energy policy showed approximately 47% of people were supportive of the scenario of zero per cent dependence on nuclear power. Unless the safety of nuclear power can be assured, extensive cuts in the dependence on nuclear power are inevitable. Therefore, promotion of renewable energies is crucial for getting over the current energy crisis in Japan as well as to prevent the climate change in global scale Reassessment of energy policy after the earthquake With the background of such situations, the former energy policy which set nuclear energy as the primary power source has been thoroughly reassessed. Actually, Prime Minster Noda declared the new energy policy on September 7, It includes following targets: (a) Pursuing zero operation of nuclear power plant by the 2030s (b) Promoting renewable energies 20% of total power generation by the 2020s from current 9.7% 40% of total power generation by the 2030s

3 The policy of nuclear power is still uncertain whether it will be completely abolished or not. In any case, the nuclear power ratio of total power generation in Japan will definitely decrease in the future because political and social consensus have been reached to reduce excessive dependence on nuclear power. It goes without saying that Japan must undertake promotion of renewable energies in earnest immediately. 2. Environmental impacts and mitigation measures for wind power development 2-1. Overview of wind power in Japan In 1980, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, LTD installed a wind turbine which had a 40kW generation capacity. After that, a wind farm which had a 20MW capacity was constructed by Eurus Energy Holdings Corporation in ). At present, cumulative installation capacity of wind power is about 2.5GW which is ranked No.13 in the world. As of March 2012, Japan has about 420 wind farm plants including about 1,870 turbines in total. The Ministry of the Environment (MOE) released an assessment of potential renewable source availability in Japan 3). According to the survey conducted in FY 2009 and FY 2010, wind power had the highest potential compared to other types of renewable energies which included non-residential use of PV power, small and medium-scale hydro electric power and geothermal power. In spite of limited potential area, MOE theoretically estimated wind power potential at approximately 1,900GW. In the ideal scenario which was based on the premise of both of Feed-in tariff establishment ( 20/kWh, 15 years) and initial cost reduction by renewable energy source renovation, developers can economically extract 410GW from wind power in Japan. In spite of its high potential, actual wind power installation appears to be progressing quite slowly. The previous target of installing 3 GW of wind power by FY 2010 which the national government set has not yet been achieved. In recent years, the turbines for wind power have become bigger due to the need for increased profitability. Five wind farms which have over 50MW installation capacity have already been operating. The Shin-Izumo wind farm in Shimane prefecture which has the biggest capacity of 78MW started operation in May, The trend toward larger turbines has been giving rise to various environmental disputes in Japan Environmental issues caused by wind power As installation capacities become bigger, potential environmental impacts have been revealed in recent years. According to our previous survey, conflicts with local residents have occurred in 38% of wind farms with above 20MW capacity due to operational noise, bird collisions, spoiled scenery, shadow flicker etc. On this paper, operational noise and bird collision issues which often become bottlenecks of project implementation will be examined. Operational noise is one of the most serious impacts on local residents. According to a survey conducted by the Ministry of the Environment (MOE), 64 of 389 wind power sites gave rise to noise complaints. This number of complaints ratio is the highest among other environmental issues. It also shows the ratio of occurrence of complaints is higher according to the installation scale; 27% at 5MW-10MW capacity sites, 38% at 10MW-15MW sites, 44% at 15MW-20MW sites and 69% at 20MW-30MW sites 4). Also, it is pointed out that perception of unpleasant sound depends on not only wind power capacity but also psychological aspects. People who live in areas where they see turbines perceive more noise than those who can t see turbines. Moreover, a previous survey pointed out that people feel wind turbine noise is more unpleasant than that of aircraft, road traffic and railways 5). Impacts on the ecosystem, particularly in the case of bird collisions, often become severe bottlenecks in the projects for developers. Another survey conducted by the MOE in the northern part of Japan, showed the second largest factor for wounded white-tailed eagles was collisions with turbines. Importantly, this is one of the most significant factors potentially leading to project withdrawal. In Japan, raptores, which include golden eagles, are registered on the red list of threatened species making wind power projects difficult. In our previous research, we selected 8 representative cases and conducted field surveys. 8 projects were plotted according to analysis of participation quality such as the dialogue process and plan modification, and project difficulties such as proximity to residents, land use regulations and project scales. In spite of acquiring a high evaluation on the public participation process, the Minenohara wind farm was cancelled due to the golden eagle bird collision issue. This implies that bird collision issues can t be solved no matter how carefully developers try to build consensus with bird conservation groups. Surveys generally show strong overall public support for wind power, while concrete projects are felt to suffer from the Not-In-My-Back-Yard (NIMBY) syndrome. The actual situation is likely

4 to be more complicated and is similar to NIABY (Not-In-Any-Back-Yard) one. According to a previous study, several types of behavior of local residents toward wind farm projects were demonstrated 6) : (a) NIABY (Not-In-Any-Back-Yard), rejection to wind turbine technology in general (b) Dynamic attitude, may change opinion through dialogue during planning phase Regarding noise issues, impacts on distant residents can be larger than local residents living near the wind power site because noise perception depends on background noise level which is often related to geographical features 7) Mitigation measures Operational noise can be avoidable by means of mitigation measures in each planning phase. Layout modification which is to redesign the location of turbines is an adequate way in the planning phase. Also, in the case of the implementation phase in which complaints occur after starting operation of turbines, an operational adjustment or soundproofing can be effective measures. Accordingly, communication is crucial for enhancing community acceptance in order to build consensus (e.g. Kamiyahagi wind farm). On the other hand, the bird collision issue is more difficult to build consensus due to the lack of effective mitigation measures. Even compensation strategies are not workable (NIABY phenomenon) (e.g. Hyogo, Nigorigo, Kamiyahagi wind farm). Until now, one of the effective ways to avoid such a conflict is to eliminate golden eagles habitat zone in the planning phase. In addition, operational adjustments could be effective to protect birds because collision risk is negligible in good visibility conditions and low bird activity times (Larsen, 2007). 3. Strategies for sound promotion of wind power: three pillars Promotion of wind power has not been going well so far in terms of serious environmental issues as well as profitability. It is, however, necessary to promote renewable energies for an alternative measure to nuclear power. Especially, wind power can be the major alternative energy in terms of its high potential in Japan. For sound promotion of wind power, three elements need to be considered; Hardware, Software and Mindware. Hardware refers to technological aspects of wind power. Software refers to social systems such as regulations for environmental consideration and economic instrument systems that encourage developers to work on wind power and so forth. Mindware refers to community acceptance of specific projects at the local level, including potentially affected residents, key local stakeholders and local authorities. Procedural justice and trust between local community and developers should be highlighted 8) Software: institutional setting Both environmental and economic systems as software are fundamental elements in order to ensure sound wind farm developments. As for environmental aspects, environmental impact assessment (EIA) is taking a central role for environmental consideration. The Japanese new EIA act was amended and has just started to be applied to wind power projects since September, Herewith, common rule will be applied to wind farm projects which have 10MW capacity or more. In the process of EIA amendment, an argument happened about target of EIA application to wind power plants. Considering existing the wind farm capacity and occurrence of environmental disputes, it was decided to apply 10MW capacity or more. However, it s still uncertain whether it is adequate to apply to offshore wind or not. Sooner or later, it will need a review. Feed-in Tarrif (FIT) has also just started in July, A fixed rate and a set period of time are crucial elements for FIT system. Wind farms producing more than 20 kw can charge 23.1/kWh for 20 years, while firms yielding under 20kW can get 57.75/kWh, also two decades. Although it is often said a fixed rate of 23.1/kWh is too high compared with other countries, it is likely to be set to bring off-shore wind farm (floating type) in perspective Hardware: offshore wind development It is certain that wind farms will be installed on the coastal area or off-shore far from coast for years to come since on-shore wind farms have been facing difficult situation with disputes caused by various environmental impacts. According to survey conducted by MOE in FY2010, as many as 16,000GW is estimated for off-shore introduction potential which is equal to 84% of total introduction potential of wind farm. However,

5 it estimates only 3GW introduction as FIT scenario due to its high cost and technological barriers while 140GW can be extracted on the assumption of FIT and Technological innovation scenario. Currently, there are three near-shore turbines; Setana(2003) 1.32MW, Sakata(2004) 10MW, Kamisu(2010) 14MW, and two off-shore pilot projects; Chosi(2012) 2MW, Hibiki-nada(2013) 2MW 9). At present, off-shore wind developments are mainly installed on near-shore due to technological barriers. Especially, Japan is not abundant in shallow place of sea where is suitable for bottom-mounted type of turbines. It means that floating off-shore turbine technologies are necessary for active introduction of off-shore wind power in Japan. The government intends to expand stepwise wind power development from on-shore area to off-shore through near-shore. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism(MLIT) and Ministry of the Environment(MOE) released a guideline for near-shore wind power development in June, ). It includes procedures, organizational schemes, suitable place and so forth. Suitable area is recommended for installation of turbines such as along sea breaks. Also, this guideline shows criteria for developer selection, including attribution for harbor management, consideration for environmental impact, safety and combination with community Mindware: for sound promotion of wind power Community acceptance is crucial for the successful wind farm developments. Local opposition is often based on psychological problem, particular in distrust to developers or local authorities trying to build turbines and the way projects are planned and managed, not to wind turbines themselves. From this point of view, a building consensus is equal to a building trustful relationship among stakeholders. For this reason, transparency and fairness of the planning process is key elements, particular in the site selection. Also, it is necessary not only to set opportunities of public consultations but to reflect citizen s input on the plan. As nobody hopes to live an everyday life at the foot of towers, it needs to find out an adequate way to share profits among stakeholders including local residents. It could be effective way to return profits to local residents such as public investment, setting up fishery grounds around off-shore turbines and so forth. At present, there are 12 turbines in 8 wind power sites which were partially invested by citizen in Japan. These projects are not clarified if it is effective way for public acceptance or not. For sound promotion of wind power, we need to clarify adequate measures how to involve people and its effectiveness to enhance social and community acceptance. References 1) Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), The Strategic Energy Plan of Japan. 2) Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP), Renewables 2012 Japan Status Report 3) Ministry of the Environment (MOE), Study of Basic Zoning Information Concerning Renewable Energies (FY2011) 4) Ministry of the Environment (MOE), Basic concept of Environmental Impact Assessment for Wind Power Developments 5) Pedersen, E. and Persson, K Perception and annoyance due to wind turbine noise a dose response relationship, Journal of Acoustical Society of America 116(6): ) Wolsink, M., Wind power and the NIMBY-myth: institutional capacity and the limited significance of public support, Journal of Renewable Energy 21: ) Azechi, K., Nishikizawa, S. and Harashina, S. EIA as a Conflict Mitigation Tool for Wind Farm Projects in Japan, Proceedings of the 32nd Annual Meeting of IAIA (printing) 8) Wüstenhagen, R., Wolsink, M., and Büuer, M. Social acceptance of renewable energy innovation: An introduction to the concept, Energy Policy 35: ) Larsen, J. and Guillemette, M., Effects of wind turbines on flight behavior of wintering common eiders: implications for habitat use and collision risk, Journal of Applied Ecology 44: ) Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) and Ministry of the Environment (MOE), Guideline for near-shore wind power development < (in Japanese)