A proposed energy conversion process for making solar energy a major player in global power generation

Transcription

1 A proposed energy conversion process for making solar energy a major player in global power generation Jacob Karni The Weizmann Institute of Science Rehovot, Israel 1

2 General Objective of Renewable Power Generation and Fuel Production Have an energy conversion method, which can gradually replace fossil fuel combustion on a worldwide scale, 2

3 General Objective of Renewable Power Generation and Fuel Production Have an energy conversion method, which can gradually replace fossil fuel combustion on a worldwide scale, eventually leading to a renewable-dominant global energy supply. 3

4 Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost 4

5 Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost 5

6 Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost 6

7 Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost 7

8 Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost 8

9 Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost 9

10 Levelized Energy Cost 10

11 The Levelized Energy Cost The LEC defines the breakeven cost of the system. It is the basic cost/performance parameter of power generation systems The acronym LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) is often used instead of LEC 11

12 The Levelized Energy Cost LEC = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M + Ĉ fuel E elec,yr Ĉ invest Ĉ O&M Ĉ fuel E elec,yr Total capital invested in construction and installation Annual operation and maintenance Annual fuel costs Net annual electricity production fcr = k d 1+ k d 1+ k d ( ) N ( ) N 1 + k insurance k d N k insurance Annualized Fixed Charge Rate (or Annuity Factor) Real debt interest rate Depreciation period in years (system design life) Annual insurance cost rate 12

13 The Levelized Energy Cost LEC = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M + Ĉ fuel E elec,yr Here we are only interested in the solar LEC Ĉ invest Ĉ O&M Ĉ fuel E elec,yr Total capital invested in construction and installation Annual operation and maintenance Annual fuel costs Net annual electricity production fcr = k d 1+ k d 1+ k d ( ) N ( ) N 1 + k insurance k d N k insurance Annualized Fixed Charge Rate (or Annuity Factor) Real debt interest rate Depreciation period in years (system design life) Annual insurance cost rate 13

14 The Levelized Energy Cost LEC = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M E elec,yr Ĉ invest Ĉ O&M E elec,yr Total capital invested in construction and installation Annual operation and maintenance Annual fuel costs Net annual electricity production fcr = k d 1+ k d 1+ k d ( ) N ( ) N 1 + k insurance k d N k insurance Annualized Fixed Charge Rate (or Annuity Factor) Real debt interest rate Depreciation period in years (system design life) Annual insurance cost rate 14

15 The Levelized Energy Cost LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M E solar elec,yr = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture t year,sun I incident dt Ĉ invest Ĉ O&M E solar elec,yr η sys,yr avg A collector aperture t year,sun I incident dt Total capital invested in construction and installation Annual operation and maintenance Net annual solar electricity production Annual-average system efficiency Sunlight collection aperture area Direct annual solar irradiation energy 15

16 The Levelized Energy Cost LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M E solar elec,yr = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture t year,sun I incident dt Ĉ invest Ĉ O&M E solar elec,yr η sys,yr avg A collector aperture t year,sun I incident dt Total capital invested in construction and installation Annual operation and maintenance Net annual solar electricity production Annual-average system efficiency Sunlight collection aperture area Direct annual solar irradiation energy 16

17 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 17

18 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 1. Select a site with good solar conditions Not unique to any technology 18

19 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 1. Select a site with good solar conditions 2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr Not unique to any technology 19

20 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 1. Select a site with good solar conditions 2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr. 3. Lower production, installation and operation costs Not really unique to any technology 20

21 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 1. Select a site with good solar conditions 2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr. 3. Lower production, installation and operation costs 4. Increase the overall annual system efficiency. 21

22 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 1. Select a site with good solar conditions 2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr. 3. Lower production, installation and operation costs 4. Increase the overall annual system efficiency. Increasing the collector area causes an increase in costs and generally does not reduce the LEC. 22

23 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 1. Select a site with good solar conditions 2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr. 3. Lower production, installation and operation costs 4. Increase the overall annual system efficiency. 23

24 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun Increasing the overall annual system efficiency is usually combined with reduction of production, installation and operation costs. 24

25 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun Increasing the overall annual system efficiency is usually combined with reduction of production, installation and operation costs. We must develop systems with a potential for higher annual-average system efficiency than possible in present solar systems. 25

26 General Features of Solar-Thermal Systems 26

27 General Features of Solar-Thermal Systems There is an energy loss in each step The overall annual-average system efficiency is!!!!!! Where η i are the annual-average component efficiencies. Annual-average efficiency Design Efficiency 27

28 Now we are ready to deal with the Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost 28

29 Solar System are Modular by Nature 29

30 Large Scale, Modular Design ~375 MWe Plant near Ivanpah, CA, with 3 Solar Towers 30

31 Large Scale, Modular Design ~150 MWe Trough Plant near Ouarzazate, Morocco with a single Power Conversion Unit [Relatively long heat transmission lines] 31

32 Large Scale, Modular Design First of 3 CSP modules ~150 MWe Trough Plant near Ouarzazate, Morocco with a single Power Conversion Unit [Relatively long heat transmission lines] 32

33 Solar System are Modular by Nature But what should be the size of each module? 33

34 Primary Optics of Solar Tower 34

35 Size Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems PS10 Abengoa s ~10MWe plant near Seville, Spain 35

36 Size Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems PS10 Abengoa s ~10MWe plant near Seville, Spain. 624 x 120m 2 heliostats 115m high tower PS20 Abengoa s ~20MWe plant near Seville, Spain 1255 x 120m 2 heliostats; 165m high tower 36

37 Size Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems PS10 Abengoa s ~10MWe plant near Seville, Spain. 624 x 120m 2 heliostats 115m high tower PS20 Abengoa s ~20MWe plant near Seville, Spain 1255 x 120m 2 heliostats; 165m high tower 37

38 Size Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems PS10 Abengoa s ~10MWe plant near Seville, Spain. 624 x 120m 2 heliostats 115m high tower PS20 Abengoa s ~20MWe plant near Seville, Spain 1255 x 120m 2 heliostats; 165m high tower As good as possible 2:1 scale up 38

39 Size Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems PS10 Abengoa s ~10MWe plant near Seville, Spain. 624 x 120m 2 heliostats 115m high tower PS20 Abengoa s ~20MWe plant near Seville, Spain 1255 x 120m 2 heliostats; 165m high tower As good as possible 2:1 scale up Receiver aperture diameter is increased by ~! 39

40 Size Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems Gemasolar Torresol s ~20 MWe plant with 15 hours of thermal storage, covering nearly 2 km 2. 2,650 x 120m 2 heliostats; 140m high tower 40

41 Size Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems Gemasolar Torresol s ~20 MWe plant with 15 hours of thermal storage, covering nearly 2 km 2. 2,650 x 120m 2 heliostats; 140m high tower 41

42 Size Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems Forced to use 360 radiation s collection and external receiver Gemasolar Torresol s ~20 MWe plant with 15 hours of thermal storage, covering nearly 2 km 2. 2,650 x 120m 2 heliostats; 140m high tower 42

43 Size Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems BrightSource s solar power generation plants near Ivanpah, CA; 3 solar towers, totaling ~375MWe, covering ~16 km ,500 x 15m 2 heliostats; 140m high tower 43

44 Size Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems Spillage Losses Spilled Radiation Receiver Aperture Concentrating Dish 44

45 Size Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems Spillage Losses Spilled Radiation Receiver Aperture Concentrating Dish Spilled Radiation Receiver Aperture Solar Tower ~10MWe 45

46 Size Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems Spillage Losses Spilled Radiation Receiver Aperture Concentrating Dish Receiver Spilled Radiation Spilled Radiation Receiver Aperture Solar Tower ~10MWe Solar Tower > 20MWe 46

47 Size Optics Relation in Solar Tower Systems Spillage Losses Spilled Radiation Receiver Aperture Concentrating Dish Receiver Spilled Radiation Spilled Radiation Receiver Aperture Solar Tower ~10MWe Solar Tower > 20MWe Efficiency of External Receiver < Efficiency of Cavity Receiver 47

48 Energy Storage in Solar Systems 48

49 Electrical Power Generation and Distribution The TXU (Arizona) Load Requirement Load Required Wind Output 49

50 Electrical Power Generation and Distribution The TXU (Arizona) Load Requirement Load Required Solar Output Wind Output 50

51 Electrical Power Generation and Distribution Demand Coal Gas (CC) Nuclear Wind Electricity demand and load distribution between Coal (Steam Turbines), Nat. Gas (Combined Cycle, Gas Turbines), Nuclear and Wind in the UK. 51

52 Electrical Power Generation and Distribution Demand Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Electricity demand and load distribution between Coal (Steam Turbines), Nat. Gas (Combined Cycle, Gas Turbines), Nuclear and Wind in the UK. 52

53 Electrical Power Generation and Distribution Demand Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Electricity demand and load distribution between Coal (Steam Turbines), Nat. Gas (Combined Cycle, Gas Turbines), Nuclear and Wind in the UK. 53

54 Electrical Power Generation and Distribution Demand Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Electricity demand and load distribution between Coal (Steam Turbines), Nat. Gas (Combined Cycle, Gas Turbines), Nuclear and Wind in the UK. 54

55 Large scale intermittent renewable solutions must include enough storage to assure power supply per demand 55

56 Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7 1. Adding storage to a solar power system requires an increase of the power input during solar hours, meaning larger collection area. But the size of the power conversion unit does not increase 2. Larger collection area means lower optical and receiver efficiencies in Solar Tower systems lower heat transmission efficiency in Trough systems. 3. The optical and transmission efficiency of small solar towers is least affected by an increase of collection area 56

57 Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7 1. Adding storage to a solar power system requires an increase of the power input during solar hours, meaning larger collection area. But the size of the power conversion unit does not increase 2. Larger collection area means lower optical and receiver efficiencies in Solar Tower systems lower heat transmission efficiency in Trough systems. 3. The optical and transmission efficiency of small solar towers is least affected by an increase of collection area 57

58 Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7 1. Adding storage to a solar power system requires an increase of the power input during solar hours, meaning larger collection area. But the size of the power conversion unit does not increase 2. Larger collection area means lower optical and receiver efficiencies in Solar Tower systems lower heat transmission efficiency in Trough systems. 3. The optical and transmission efficiency of small solar towers is least affected by an increase of collection area 58

59 Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7 1. Adding storage to a solar power system requires an increase of the power input during solar hours, meaning larger collection area. But the size of the power conversion unit does not increase 2. Larger collection area means lower optical and receiver efficiencies in Solar Tower systems lower heat transmission efficiency in Trough systems. 3. The optical and transmission efficiency of small solar towers is least affected by an increase of collection area 59

60 Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7 1. Adding storage to a solar power system requires an increase of the power input during solar hours, meaning larger collection area. But the size of the power conversion unit does not increase 2. Larger collection area means lower optical and receiver efficiencies in Solar Tower systems lower heat transmission efficiency in Trough systems. 3. The optical and transmission efficiency of small solar towers is least affected by an increase of collection area 60

61 Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7 Requirements for having storage without increasing the LEC, relative to a solar system of the same size, without storage: 1. Increasing collection area does not cause efficiency reduction of other system components 2. The added storage cost does not exceed the eliminated cost of increasing the power conversion unit. 61

62 Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7 Requirements for having storage without increasing the LEC, relative to a solar system of the same size, without storage: 1. Increasing collection area does not cause efficiency reduction of other system components 2. The added storage cost does not exceed the eliminated cost of increasing the power conversion unit. 62

63 Supply solar energy year-round, 24/7 Requirements for having storage without increasing the LEC, relative to a solar system of the same size, without storage: 1. Increasing collection area does not cause efficiency reduction of other system components 2. The added storage cost does not exceed the eliminated cost of increasing the power conversion unit. 63

64 Power Conversion Units for Solar-Thermal Systems 64

65 Power Conversion Units Options for Solar Systems 90% PCU Efficiency 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Carnot Efficiency C-N Efficiency Free-Piston Stirling Steam-Rankine Brayton Combined Cycle sco2 Brayton 0% T_high (engine) 65

66 Power Conversion Units Options for Solar Systems 90% PCU Efficiency 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Carnot Efficiency C-N Efficiency Free-Piston Stirling Steam-Rankine Brayton Combined Cycle sco2 Brayton 0% T_high (engine) 66

67 Power Conversion Units Options for Solar Systems 90% PCU Efficiency 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Carnot Efficiency C-N Efficiency Free-Piston Stirling Steam-Rankine Brayton Combined Cycle sco2 Brayton 0% T_high (engine) Supercritical CO 2 turbine advantages: Available at the optimum temperature range for solar-thermal Available at relatively small sizes (1MWe and larger) 67

68 Use of Solar Energy for Fuel Production from CO 2 and Water Enable Long Distance Energy Transportation 68

69 Dissociation of CO 2 using concentrated solar energy Courtesy of NewCO2Fuels (NCF) and the Weizmann Institute of Science 69

70 Dissociation of CO 2 using concentrated solar energy To be discussed in a future talk Courtesy of NewCO2Fuels (NCF) and the Weizmann Institute of Science 70

71 The Proposed System 71

72 System Configuration Solar Power Generation Secondary Reflector Concentrated Sunlight Receiver Electricity Output Heliostats Storage 2 6 Power Conversion Unit Sloping Ground 72

73 System Configuration Solar Power Generation Secondary Reflector Primary Optics [MIT] Concentrated Sunlight Receiver Electricity Output Heliostats Storage 2 6 Power Conversion Unit Sloping Ground 73

74 Large Scale, Modular Design Our Design: Relatively small (~10-15 MWt), high-efficiency module. Increase system efficiency translates to smaller collection area. 74

75 Large Scale, Modular Design 2.5 MWt Solar Tower near Pentakomo Cyprus Courtesy of the Cyprus Institute 75

76 System Configuration Solar Power Generation Secondary Reflector Secondary Optics and Receiver [Weizmann] Concentrated Sunlight Receiver Electricity Output Heliostats Storage 2 6 Power Conversion Unit Sloping Ground 76

77 System Configuration Solar Power Generation Secondary Reflector Storage [Alumina Energy] Concentrated Sunlight Receiver Electricity Output Heliostats Storage 2 6 Power Conversion Unit Sloping Ground 77

78 System Configuration Solar Power Generation Secondary Reflector Concentrated Sunlight Receiver Electricity Output Heliostats Storage 2 6 Power Conversion Unit Sloping Ground 78

79 System Configuration Solar Power Generation Secondary Reflector Concentrated Sunlight Receiver Electricity Output Heliostats Storage 2 6 Power Conversion Unit Sloping Ground 79

80 System Configuration Solar Power Generation Secondary Reflector Concentrated Sunlight Receiver sco2 turbine [Southwest Research Institute] 5 Electricity Output Heliostats Storage 2 6 Power Conversion Unit Sloping Ground 80

81 System Configuration Fuel Production Secondary Reflector Concentrated Sunlight Fuel Production Receiver 3 Storage Power Conversion Unit CO2 & H2O Dissociation Reactor Heliostats Sloping Ground 81

82 System Configuration Fuel Production Secondary Reflector Syngas production from CO 2 & H 2 O [NCF & Weizmann] Concentrated Sunlight Fuel Production Receiver 3 Storage Power Conversion Unit CO2 & H2O Dissociation Reactor Heliostats Sloping Ground 82

83 Compliance with the Fundamental Requirements 83

84 Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost 84

85 Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost 85

86 Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost 86

87 Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost 87

88 Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost 88

89 Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost 89

90 Fundamental Requirements 1. Use clean, renewable energy, with benign environmental effects 2. Large-scale (hence, modular) 3. Supply energy year-round, 24/7 Get me what I want, when I want it!!! 4. Transport energy over long distances 5. Affordable cost check efficiency and LEC 90

91 Efficiency Comparison Solar Thermal Systems Linear Fresnel Trough Solar Tower >20MWe Solar Tower ~ 5-20MWe Solar Tower < 5MWe Dish-Concentrator Achievable Annual Avgerage System efficiency 18% 20% 18% 26% 31% 30% 91

92 Efficiency Comparison Solar Thermal Systems Linear Fresnel Trough Solar Tower >20MWe Solar Tower ~ 5-20MWe Solar Tower < 5MWe Dish-Concentrator Achievable Annual Avgerage System efficiency 18% 20% 18% 26% 31% 30% Each module of our system is MWt (~ MWe) 92

93 Levelized Energy Cost Direct Radiation Energy = 5.6 kwh/m 2 /day (2040 kwh/m 2 /year) LEC ($/MWh) New S-T Sysyem PV w/o Storage PV with Storage CC, 2.5 $/MMBtu CC, 7.0 $/MMBtu % 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% fcr 93

94 Levelized Energy Cost Direct Radiation Energy = 5.6 kwh/m 2 /day (2040 kwh/m 2 /year) LEC ($/MWh) New S-T Sysyem PV w/o Storage PV with Storage CC, 2.5 $/MMBtu CC, 7.0 $/MMBtu % 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% fcr 94

95 Levelized Energy Cost Direct Radiation Energy = 5.6 kwh/m 2 /day (2040 kwh/m 2 /year) LEC ($/MWh) New S-T Sysyem PV w/o Storage PV with Storage CC, 2.5 $/MMBtu CC, 7.0 $/MMBtu % 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% fcr 95

96 Levelized Energy Cost Direct Radiation Energy = 5.6 kwh/m 2 /day (2040 kwh/m 2 /year) LEC ($/MWh) New S-T Sysyem PV w/o Storage PV with Storage CC, 2.5 $/MMBtu CC, 7.0 $/MMBtu % 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% fcr 96

97 Levelized Energy Cost Direct Radiation Energy = 5.6 kwh/m 2 /day (2040 kwh/m 2 /year) Direct Radiation Energy = 6.8 kwh/m 2 /day (2500 kwh/m 2 /year) LEC ($/MWh) New S-T Sysyem PV w/o Storage PV with Storage CC, 2.5 $/MMBtu CC, 7.0 $/MMBtu % 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% fcr 97

98 Levelized Fuel (Syngas) Cost Direct Radiation Energy = 5.6 kwh/m 2 /day (2040 kwh/m 2 /year) Direct Radiation Energy = 6.8 kwh/m 2 /day (2500 kwh/m 2 /year) LEC ($/ton) LFC 5.6 kwh/m2/day LFC 6.8 kwh/m2/day % 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% fcr 98

99 Development Status The proposed process combines developments by a group of collaborators working together and separately over 25 years. The main system components have been tested and proven on a small scale, but must still be, designed for the operating conditions of the proposed system scaled up integrated and operated together 99

100 Development Status The proposed process combines developments by a group of collaborators working together and separately over 25 years. The main system components have been tested and proven on a small scale, but must still be, designed for the operating conditions of the proposed system scaled up integrated and operated together 100

101 Development Status The proposed process combines developments by a group of collaborators working together and separately over 25 years. The main system components have been tested and proven on a small scale, but must still be, designed for the operating conditions of the proposed system scaled up integrated and operated together 101

102 Development Status The proposed process combines developments by a group of collaborators working together and separately over 25 years. The main system components have been tested and proven on a small scale, but must still be, designed for the operating conditions of the proposed system scaled up integrated and operated together 102

103 Development Status The proposed process combines developments by a group of collaborators working together and separately over 25 years. The main system components have been tested and proven on a small scale, but must still be, designed for the operating conditions of the proposed system scaled up integrated and operated together 103

104 Main Conclusions 1. The proposed solar power-generation system enables very large-scale installation Year-round, 24/7 power supply per demand At competitive Levelized Energy Cost (LEC) 2. The system can be modified for syngas production from CO 2 and water by the addition of a chemical reactor, with minor changes of other system components. 104

105 Main Conclusions 1. The proposed solar power-generation system enables very large-scale installation Year-round, 24/7 power supply per demand At competitive Levelized Energy Cost (LEC) 2. The system can be modified for syngas production from CO 2 and water by the addition of a chemical reactor, with minor changes of other system components. 105

106 Last Comment 106

107 From talk at MIT on Oct

108 The Real World Problem of Solar Thermal 108

109 The Real World Problem of Solar Thermal Facts: There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power here and now 109

110 The Real World Problem of Solar Thermal Facts: There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power here and now Trough is the only mature solar technology 110

111 The Real World Problem of Solar Thermal Facts: There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power here and now Trough is the only mature solar technology Developers are faced with few options: 111

112 The Real World Problem of Solar Thermal Facts: There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power here and now Trough is the only mature solar technology Developers are faced with few options: Grab the opportunity and build trough systems (low risk, shortterm payback) 112

113 The Real World Problem of Solar Thermal Facts: There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power here and now Trough is the only mature solar technology Developers are faced with few options: Grab the opportunity and build trough systems (low risk, shortterm payback) Develop a new technology that can be cheaper than trough and commercially ready in 1-2 years (medium risk, possibly longer payback) 113

114 The Real World Problem of Solar Thermal Facts: There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power here and now Trough is the only mature solar technology Developers are faced with few options: Grab the opportunity and build trough systems (low risk, shortterm payback) Develop a new technology that can be cheaper than trough and commercially ready in 1-2 years (medium risk, possibly longer payback) Develop a breakthrough technology that can reach cost parity with conventional plants but takes 4-5 years to matures (high risk, long term payback) 114

115 The Real World Problem of Solar Thermal Facts: There are unprecedented opportunities for solar power here and now Trough is the only mature solar technology Developers are faced with few options: Grab the opportunity and build trough systems (low risk, shortterm payback) Develop a new technology that can be cheaper than trough and commercially ready in 1-2 years (medium risk, possibly longer payback) Develop a breakthrough technology that can reach cost parity with conventional plants but takes 4-5 years to mature (high risk, long term payback) 115

116 Our Approach 1. Strive for a long term, lowest cost solar power solution 2. Develop a storage solution 116

117 Our Approach 1. Strive for a long term, lowest cost solar power solution 2. Develop a storage solution 3. Fast to market approach is acceptable if it leads to the long term solution 117

118 Thank You! 118

119 *** Supplement slides *** 119

120 Sep. 25, 2016 Short answer: The price of Money (GE) GE are currently able to get loans for around 1% (less with a floating rate, more with a fixed rate). Longer answer: GE floating rate note issued in 2007 pays interest (coupon) of 0.694%. GE note issued in 2015 (also floating rate) pays 0.287% In 2012 GE issued fixed rate 10 year debt for 2.7% (link) In 2015 GE issued fixed rate 12 year Euro denominated debt for 1.875% (link) In 2015 GE issued fixed rate 8 year Euro denominated debt for 1.25% (link) In 2015 GE issued fixed rate 7 year Euro denominated debt for 0.80% (link) This page ( lists many more GE bonds and has a nice graphic of yields and maturities. While these yields aren't interest rates paid by GE (GE pays more in general) they indicate the rates that the market is willing to accept for GE debt. 120

121 The price of Money Nuclear Power Plants The modernization of Generation II and III Nuclear Reactors for power generation typically includes improved safety system and 60 years design life. Generation II reactor designs generally had an original design life of 30 or 40 years. This date was set as the period over which loans taken out for the plant would be paid off. However, many generation II reactor are being lifeextended to 50 or 60 years, and a second life-extension to 80 years may also be economic in many cases. 121

122 The Levelized Energy Cost LEC = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M + Ĉ fuel E elec,yr Ĉ invest Ĉ O&M Ĉ fuel E elec,yr Total capital invested in construction and installation Annual operation and maintenance Annual fuel costs Net annual electricity production fcr = k d 1+ k d 1+ k d ( ) N ( ) N 1 + k insurance Annualized Fixed Charge Rate (or Annuity Factor) 122

123 The Levelized Energy Cost LEC = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M + Ĉ fuel E elec,yr Here we are only interested in the solar LEC Ĉ invest Ĉ O&M Ĉ fuel E elec,yr Total capital invested in construction and installation Annual operation and maintenance Annual fuel costs Net annual electricity production fcr = k d 1+ k d 1+ k d ( ) N ( ) N 1 + k insurance Annualized Fixed Charge Rate (or Annuity Factor) 123

124 The Levelized Energy Cost LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M E solar elec,yr Ĉ invest Ĉ O&M E solar elec,yr Total capital invested in construction and installation Annual operation and maintenance Net annual solar electricity production fcr = k d 1+ k d 1+ k d ( ) N ( ) N 1 + k insurance Annualized Fixed Charge Rate (or Annuity Factor) 124

125 The Levelized Energy Cost LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M E solar elec,yr = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture t year,sun I incident dt Ĉ invest Ĉ O&M E solar elec,yr η sys,yr avg A collector aperture t year,sun I incident dt Total capital invested in construction and installation Annual operation and maintenance Net annual solar electricity production Annual-averaged system efficiency Sunlight collection aperture area Direct annual solar irradiation energy 125

126 The Levelized Energy Cost LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M E solar elec,yr = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture t year,sun I incident dt Ĉ invest Ĉ O&M E solar elec,yr η sys,yr avg A collector aperture t year,sun I incident dt Total capital invested in construction and installation Annual operation and maintenance Net annual solar electricity production Overall annual-averaged system efficiency Sunlight collection aperture area Direct annual solar irradiation energy 126

127 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 127

128 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 1. Select a site with good solar conditions Not unique to any technology 128

129 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 1. Select a site with good solar conditions 2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr Not unique to any technology 129

130 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 1. Select a site with good solar conditions 2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr. 3. Lower production, installation and operation costs Not really unique to any technology 130

131 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 1. Select a site with good solar conditions 2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr. 3. Lower production, installation and operation costs 4. Increase the overall annual system efficiency. 131

132 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 1. Select a site with good solar conditions 2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr. 3. Lower production, installation and operation costs 4. Increase the overall annual system efficiency. Increasing the collector area causes an increase in costs and generally does not reduce the LEC. 132

133 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun 1. Select a site with good solar conditions 2. Obtain favorable financing to minimize fcr. 3. Lower production, installation and operation costs 133

134 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun Increasing the overall annual system efficiency is usually combined with reduction of production, installation and operation costs. 134

135 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun Increasing the overall annual system efficiency is usually combined with reduction of production, installation and operation costs. It is the most effective way to decrease LEC. 135

136 LEC Reduction LEC solar = fcr Ĉinvest + ĈO&M η sys,yr avg A collector aperture I incident dt t year,sun Increasing the overall annual system efficiency is usually combined with reduction of production, installation and operation costs. It is the most effective way to decrease LEC. We must develop systems with a potential for higher annual system efficiency than possible in present solar systems. 136

137 The Difficult Issues of Solar Thermal 137

138 The Fundamental Problem of Solar Thermal 138

139 The Fundamental Problem of Solar Thermal The the most efficient and lowest cost Heat Engines are large typically over 100MWe units 139

140 The Fundamental Problem of Solar Thermal The the most efficient and lowest cost Heat Engines are large typically over 100MWe units Whereas: Optimum engine size for Parabolic Trough ~50-100MWe Optimum engine size for Central Receiver <15MWe Optimum engine size for parabolic dish ~0.1MWe 140

141 The Fundamental Problem of Solar Thermal The the most efficient and lowest cost Heat Engines are large typically over 100MWe units Whereas: Optimum engine size for Parabolic Trough ~50-100MWe Optimum engine size for Central Receiver <15MWe Optimum engine size for parabolic dish ~0.1MWe The optical efficiency is far better for small solar systems 141

142 The Fundamental Problem of Solar Thermal The the most efficient and lowest cost Heat Engines are large typically over 100MWe units Whereas: Optimum engine size for Parabolic Trough ~50-100MWe Optimum engine size for Central Receiver <15MWe Optimum engine size for parabolic dish ~0.1MWe The optical efficiency is far better for small solar systems Next Generation solar thermal systems must address this problem to reach cost parity with conventional power plants 142

143 Optical Characteristics Dish and Ideal Central Receiver Fresnel Reflectors Parabolic Dish MITEI Concentrator Sep

144 Optical Characteristics Real Central Receiver Focal image increases by 1m per 100m distance due to sun-shape Focal image increases further as the rays angle of attack increases with distance from tower Heliostat spacings must increase with distance from target to avoid light blocking 144

145 Electrical Power Generation and Distribution % Total electricity demand and wind power input to the grid in the E.ON TSO area (Germany)